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Propulsion shaft and gearbox failure in Marine Vessels: A Duration Model Analysis

Journal of Transportation Technologies 2020年第4期10卷 291-305页

作者： D. E. Onwuegbuchunam I. C. Ogwude C. C. Igboanusi K. O. Okeke N. N. Azian Department of Maritime Management Technology Federal University of Technology Owerri Nigeria Department of Transport Management Technology Federal University of Technology Owerri Nigeria Strauz Marine & Engineering Ltd. Federal Ocean Terminal (FOT) Onne Nigeria

The need to mitigate downtime in marine vessels arising from propulsion system failures has led ship operating companies to devote enormous resources for research based solutions. This paper applied duration models to determine failure probabilities of shaft and gearbox systems in service boats. Using dockyard’s event history data on boat repairs and maintenance, we applied Kaplan Meier hazard and survival curves to analyse probability of failure of shaft and gearbox systems in supply, crew and tug boats. We found that average time to shaft and gearbox failure was 8.33, 5.23 and 5.21 months for tug, supply and crew boats respectively. The hazard plots however, showed that supply boats had higher probability of failure than crew boats and then tug boats in that order. Further analysis using Cox regression model showed that the boats’ shaft and gearbox system failures were significantly affected by level of lubrication oil, stress corrosion cracking and impacts on the propulsion system’s components. The paper proposes that design of maintenance

关键词： shaft and gearbox failure Propulsion System Hazard Rates Survival Analysis Service Boats

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