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Analysis of Trends in Drought with the Non-Parametric Approach in Vietnam: A Case study in Ninh Thuan Province

American Journal of Climate Change 2021年第1期10卷 51-84页

作者： Nguyen Hoang Tuan Truong Thanh Canh University of science VNU.HCM Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

A quantitative study was used in the study of the tendency to change drought indicators in Vietnam through the Ninh Thuan province case study. The research data are temperature and precipitation data of 11 stations from 1986 to 2016 inside and outside Ninh Thuan province. To do the research, the author uses a non-parametric analysis method and the drought index calculation method. specifically, with the non-parametric method, the author uses the analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Theil-sen (sen’s slope), and to analyze drought, the author uses the standardized Precipitation Index (sPI) and the Moisture Index (MI). Two softwares calculated in this study are ProUCL 5.1 and MAKENsen 1.0 by the Us Environmental Protection Agency and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The calculation results show that meteorological drought will decrease in the future with areas such as Phan Rang, song Pha, Quan The, Ba Thap tend to increase very clearly, while Tam My and Nhi Ha tend to increase very clearly short. With the agricultural drought, the average MI results increased 0.013 per year, of which song Pha station tended to increase the highest with 0.03 per year and lower with Nhi Ha with 0.001 per year. The forecast results also show that by the end of the 21st century, the sPI tends to decrease with sPI 1 being −0.68, sPI 3 being −0.40, sPI 6 being −0.25, sPI 12 is 0.42. Along with that is the forecast that the MI index will increase 0.013 per year to 2035, the MI index is 0.93, in 2050 it is 1.13, in 2075 it will be 1.46, and by 2100 it is 1.79. Research results will be used in policymaking, environmental resources management agencies, and researchers to develop and study solutions to adapt and mitigate drought in the context of variable climate change.

关键词： Drought Mann-Kendall sen’s slope Non-Parametric

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Assessment of Meteorological Drought in Climate Variability Context within the Comoe River Transboundary Watershed

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Atmospheric and Climate sciences 2022年第1期12卷 1-17页

作者： Ismaïla Ouattara Léréyaha Coulibaly Koffi Abdelaziz Kouakou Amidou Dao Dabissi Djibril Noufé Bamory Kamagaté Issiaka savané UFR sciences Géologiques et Minières (sGM) Université de Man Man C&#244 te d’Ivoire Département de Géosciences Université Péléforo Gon Coulibaly (UPGC) Korhogo C&#244 te d’Ivoire Laboratoire Géosciences et Environnement (LGE) UFR-SGE Université Nangui Abrogoua (UNA) Abidjan C&#244 te d’Ivoire

In the context of climate variability resulting in a decrease in rainfall with a severe drought, a spatio-temporal study of this phenomenon remains imperative for the efficient management of water resources. This paper aims to assess the long-term rainfall drought trend and breakpoints within the Comoe River watershed. From monthly rainfall data series (1960-2000), standardized Precipitation Index (sPI) values were calculated for a time scale of 3 months (sPI.3). statistical tests for breaks (CUsUM, and t-student) and trends (Man-Kendall and Linear Regression) as well as the sen’ slope method for estimating the magnitude of trends was applied. The breaks dates observed are mostly located after the 1970s. Based on SPI.3 values below the threshold of 0.84 chosen as an indicator of drought, rarely has more than half of the catchment area been affected by drought. The average watershed affected is about 20% over the study period (1960-2000). The most representative years, in terms of spatial expansion of the drought, in decreasing order of importance are: 1983, 1992, 1972 and 1982. The years 1982 and 1983 stand out for their exceptional condition, as the drought-affected 50% to 90% of the total catchment area. SPI.3 series from 1960 to the various break dates recorded slopes between -0.01 and 0.00 with a slight drought trend for most of the catchment. After the break periods, almost the entire northern part of the basin is characterized by slight moisture with sen’s slopes between 0.000 and 0.005. The southern part will remain slightly subject to normal rainfall conditions.span>

关键词： Climate Variability Drought sPI.3-Index sen’s slope Comoe River Basin

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澜沧江中下游流域植被NDVI时空演变特征

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人民珠江 2022年第10期43卷 104-112页

作者：袁泽申陈晨晨李伯根王雨春河北工程大学水利水电学院河北邯郸056004 中电建生态环境集团有限公司广东深圳518102 云南省水文水资源局云南昆明650000 中国水利水电科学研究院北京100038

植被覆盖在水土保持、调节大气和维持生态系统稳定等方面发挥着重要的作用,同时还会影响区域水文和水沙过程,对于流域水电开发具有重要影响。以澜沧江中下游流域为研究区域,使用Mann-Kendall模型耦合sen’slope斜率估计,分析了1998—201... 详细信息

植被覆盖在水土保持、调节大气和维持生态系统稳定等方面发挥着重要的作用,同时还会影响区域水文和水沙过程,对于流域水电开发具有重要影响。以澜沧江中下游流域为研究区域,使用Mann-Kendall模型耦合sen’slope斜率估计,分析了1998—2018年研究区域归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)的时空演变机制。结果表明:(1)研究区域1998—2018年多年平均NDVI值为0.81,NDVI整体自北向南逐年递增;(2)研究区域1998—2018年NDVI呈现不显著递增趋势,NDVI增长速度为5.8×10^(-3)/a;(3)NDVI空间突变均出现在退化区域。在近20年全球气候变暖现象不断加剧和极端天气频频出现的背景下,研究结果对未来澜沧江流域生物多样性以及生态环境保护提供科学依据。

关键词： NDVI 时空演变 Mann-Kendall sen’s slope 澜沧江中下游流域

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