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seismic hazard analysis for engineering sites based on the stochastic finite-fault method

Earthquake Science 2022年第5期35卷 314-328页

作者： Ruifang Yu Yisheng Song Xiangyun Guo Qianli Yang Xinjuan He Yanxiang Yu Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 10081China

seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods.However,there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes.Therefore,we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation,and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method.This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves.It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications.We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area,and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finitefault simulation.Finally,we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively.The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels.These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam,thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.

关键词： Xiluodu dam seismic hazard ground motion parameters seismogenic structures

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Probing the interseismic locking state of the Xianshuihe fault based on a viscoelastic deformation model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第1期67卷 134-145页

作者： Yage ZHU Faqi DIAO Fei CHEN Yuebing WANG Zhigang SHAO Rongjiang WANG Xiong XIONG Hubei Subsurface Multi-Scale Imaging Key Laboratory School of Geophysics and GeomaticsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China China Earthquake Networks Center Beijing 100045China Institute of Earthquake Forecasting China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100036China

The interseismic locking state of tectonic faults is essential for regional seismic hazard assessments.However,it is challenging to obtain this parameter reliably due to the weak deformation and complex model configurations.To better probe the fault locking state,more reliable physical models and well-covered observations are required.Here we investigate the locking state of the Xianshuihe fault based on a new-developed viscoelastic deformation model.Meanwhile,we combine GPS velocities from 13 new near-field stations and existing stations in this region to improve the spatial resolution.Similar to the theoretical predictions,our results indicate that the elastic model will clearly overestimate the fault locking depth and seismic moment accumulation rate,and the fault slip rate inferred from the elastic model is slightly lower than that from the viscoelastic model.Relying on the locking distribution inferred from the viscoelastic model,we identify four potential asperities on the Xianshuihe fault.More importantly,we find a clear spatial correlation between the fault locking distribution and the rupture extent of historical earthquakes,which indicates that the fault locking state may control the rupture extent and thus the magnitude of earthquakes.In addition,our results show that the 2022 M6.8 Luding earthquake only ruptured the south part of a potential asperity,and the accumulated energy in the northern unruptured area is equivalent to an Mw6.9 earthquake,where the seismic hazard deserves special attention.

关键词： Fault kinematics Viscoelastic relaxation effect GPS observations seismic hazard The 2022 M6.8 Luding earthquake

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Problem identification and revitalization strategies for the recovery and reconstruction of traditional villages in the Ms 6.8 Luding Earthquake

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第2期21卷 361-379页

作者： HUANG Chao QIU Jian LIU Chun JIANG Rui ZHAO Chuanrong ZHANG Yi School of Architecture and Research Center of Space Planning and Engineering Design Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengdu 611756China Sichuan Provincial Rural Construction and Development Center Chengdu 610041China Sichuan Institute of Urban and Rural Construction Chengdu 610043China China Association for Promoting Democracy(CAPD)Sichuan Provincial Committee Chengdu 610016China Sichuan Provincial Architectural Design and Research Institute(SADI) Chengdu 610095China

Post-disaster reconstruction is a topic of global concern,and traditional villages have special heritage attributes and need to face more requirements and obstacles in post-disaster reconstruction.This paper summarizes four concepts based on the research on post-disaster reconstruction both domestically and internationally,as well as the recovery and reconstruction of cultural heritage.Through a field survey of traditional villages in the Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake-stricken area,it is found that there are problems such as insufficient awareness of heritage value,misalignment of scientific reconstruction technology,and insufficient protection of reconstruction elements during the reconstruction process.Traditional villages face the risk of declining or even loss of heritage value.In order to effectively protect traditional villages and inherit the carrier of regional culture,four targeted reconstruction response strategies are proposed,i.e.,to"establish special planning for traditional village preservation","emphasize recovery of the authenticity of village heritage","ensure elements for village heritage recovery"and"promote the activation and utilization of village heritage",based on the problems discovered during the survey and the four concepts summarized in the research on post-disaster reconstruction of traditional villages.The research results hope to provide useful reference for ancient cultural areas affected by earthquakes on how to protect cultural heritage during the post-disaster reconstruction process.

关键词： seismic hazard Decision making Traditional village Cultural heritage protection Post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction Revitalization strategy

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Co-seismic surface displacement of the June 21, 2022 M_(W)6 Khōst,Afghanistan earthquake from InSAR observations

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2024年第3期15卷 201-208页

作者： Prohelika Dalal Batakrushna Senapati Bhaskar Kundu Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences National Institute of TechnologyRourkelaOdisha 769008India

A robust estimation of the earthquake location, seismic moment, and fault geometry is essential for objective seismic hazard assessment. seismic events in a remote location, specifically in the absence of seismic and GNSS networks, can be investigated effectively using the In SAR-based technique. This study adopts the Differential Interferometric SAR(DIn SAR) technique to quantify the co-seismic surface displacement caused by the June 21, 2022, Khōst M_(W)6 earthquake that occurred along the western plate boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plate. The interferograms show that the maximum surface deformation occurred on the northwest and southwest of the fault line. From coherence, the Line of Sight(LOS) displacement, and the co-seismic surface displacement analysis, it has been observed that surface deformation was most pronounced in the southwest region of the fault line, and the surface has moved to the opposite direction along the fault line, which indicates a sinistral slightly oblique strike-slip movement. This In SAR-based observation appears consistent with the seismic waveforms derived from co-seismic surface displacements. Further, it has been argued that the slip deficit accumulated during the period of the last about 48 years along the frontal region of the northward extension of the Suleiman range and associated fault zone is qualitatively estimated at about 1.5 m, which is consistent with the seismic waveforms derived finite slip model.

关键词： seismic hazard Khōst earthquake DInSAR Slip deficit LOS displacement Finite slip model

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seismic hazard assessment of Western Coastal Province of Saudi Arabia:deterministic approach

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Earthquake Science 2016年第5期29卷 299-309页

作者： Faisal Rehman Sherif M.El-Hady Ali H.Atef Hussein M.Harbi Department of Earth Sciences University of SargodhaSargodhaPakistan Geophysics Department King Abdulaziz UniversityJeddahSaudi Arabia Earthquake Department National Research Institute ofAstronomy and GeophysicsHelwanEgypt

seismic hazard assessment is carried out by utilizing deterministic approach to evaluate the maximum expected earthquake ground motions along the Western Coastal Province of Saudi Arabia. The analysis is accomplished by incorporating seismotectonic source model, determination of earthquake magnitude （Mmax）, set of appropriate ground motion predictive equations （GMPE）, and logic tree sequence. The logic tree sequence is built up to assign weight to ground motion scaling relationships. Contour maps of ground acceleration are generated at different spectral periods. These maps show that the largest ground motion values are emerged in northern and southern regions of the western coastal province in Saudi Arabia in comparison with the central region.

关键词： Earthquakes seismic hazard Logic tree Peak ground acceleration

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Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2011年第1期10卷 143-152页

作者： Ayman A. Shama Parsons Corporation 100 Broadway New York NY 10005 USA

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis （PSHA） was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates （UAE）. The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration （PGA） for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

关键词： seismic hazard PSHA subduction zone rock ground motion spectral matching logic tree fault

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A seismic hazard Map Based on Geology and Shear-wave Velocity in Rawalpindi–Islamabad,Pakistan

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2021年第2期95卷 659-673页

作者： Sarfraz KHAN Muhammad WASEEM M.Asif KHAN National Centre of Excellence in Geology University of Peshawar 25130KPPakistan University of Peshawar 25120 KPPakistan

The‘twin cities’district of Rawalpindi–Islamabad is among the most endangered seismic regions in Pakistan,with the seismic hazard assessed(0.32 g)to intensity IX MMI for a 475-year return period.A seismic hazard map for Rawalpindi–Islamabad is presented herein,based on 85 shear-wave velocity(VS)profiles obtained through geophysical H/V measurements and from the geological map of the region.Relationships between the average top thirty-meter shear-wave velocities(VS30)and surficial geological units have been determined.The peak ground acceleration(PGA)maps for 150,475 and 2475-year return periods were converted into a seismic intensity map.Intensity increments for different soils were used to compute PGA values for 150,475 and 2475-year return periods.Sites located on softer ground experienced a higher degree of damage from moderate earthquakes.Due to the presence of soft clay or liquefiable soil and lateral spreading,a few locations may be classified as hybrid sites class C and D.This map is a critical step in facilitating code-based site classification and seismic design throughout Rawalpindi–Islamabad.Although the seismic hazard map based on seismic intensities is no longer used in engineering geology,it is still important in seismological analysis and for civil protection purposes.

关键词： seismic hazard site classification intensity increment engineering geology Rawalpindi-Islamabad

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Probabilistic seismic landslide hazard assessment: a case study in Tianshui, Northwest China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第1期17卷 173-190页

作者： WANG Tao LIU Jia-mei SHI Ju-song GAO Meng-tan WU Shu-ren Institute of Geomechanics Chinese Academy of Geological SciencesBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Crustal Stability Assessment Institute of Geomecha nicsCAGSBeijing 100081China China Institute for Geo-Enviro nmental Monitoring Beijing 100081China Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situations are very complex and thus uncertainties of some parameters such as water content conditions and critical displacement are difficult to describe with accurate mathematical models. In this study, we present a probabilistic methodology based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and the Newmark’s displacement model. The Tianshui seismic zone(105°00′-106°00′ E, 34°20′-34°40′ N) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example. Arias intensity with three standard probabilities of exceedance(63%, 10%, and 2% in 50 years) in accordance with building design provisions were used to compute Newmark displacements by incorporating the effects of topographic amplification.Probable scenarios of water content condition were considered and three water content conditions(dry,wet and saturated) were adopted to simulate the effect of pore-water on slope. The influence of 5 cm and 10 cm critical displacements were investigated in order to analyze the sensitivity of critical displacement to the probabilities of earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The results show that water content in particular, have a great influence on the distribution of high seismic landslide hazard areas. Generally, the dry coverage analysis represents a lower bound for susceptibility and hazard assessment, and the saturated coverage analysis represents an upper bound to some extent. Moreover, high seismic landslide hazard areas are also influenced by the critical displacements. The slope failure probabilities during future earthquakes with critical displacements of 5 cm can increase by a factor of 1.2 to 2.3 as compared to that of 10 cm. It suggests that more efforts are required in order to obtain reasonable threshold values for slope failure. Considering the probable scenarios of water content condition which is

关键词： Probabilistic analysis seismic hazard Newmark’s method Landslides Displacement model hazard assessment

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Features of seismic hazard in large dam projects and strong motion monitoring of large dams

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Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2010年第1期4卷 56-64页

作者： Martin WIELAND Chairman ICOLD Committee on Seismic Aspects of Dam DesignPoyry Energy Ltd.Zurich CH-8037Switzerland

Earthquakes can affect large dam projects in many different ways.Usually,design engineers are focussing on ground shaking and neglect the other aspects.The May 12,2008 Wenchuan earthquake has damaged 1803 dams and reservoirs,and 403 hydropower plants with an installed capacity of 3.3GW.Among these dams were the 132-m-high Shapai RCC arch dam and the 156-m-high Zipingpu concrete face rockfill dam.These recently completed dams are dam types which,up to now,have not experienced strong ground shaking.The widespread mass movements have caused substantial damage to dams and surface powerhouses in Sichuan.The different features of earthquake hazard are presented,i.e.,ground shaking,faulting and mass movements.It is proposed to prepare project-specific safety plans for all dams,which consist of a matrix where the possible hazards and the corresponding countermeasures are listed.The earthquake behaviors of the Sefid Rud,Zipingpu and Shapai dams,which,in the past,have experienced strong ground shaking from nearby earthquakes,are discussed.Finally,the need for strong motion instrumentation of large dams is discussed.It is proposed that major dams with large damage potential,dams located in areas of high seismicity,and dams showing signs of abnormal behavior be equipped with strong motion instruments.

关键词： seismic hazard arch dam concrete face rockfill dam strong motion instrumentation reservoirtriggered seismicity Wenchuan earthquake

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The China Seismological Reference Model project

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第5期7卷 521-532页

作者： LianXing Wen Sheng Yu Department of Geosciences State University of New York at Stony BrookStony BrookNY 11794USA Laboratory of Seismology and Physics of Earth’s Interior School of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Department of Earth Sciences National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaBeijing 100085China

The importance of developing high-resolution seismic models to improve understanding of tectonic processes and enhance seismic hazard mitigation programs,along with the rapid expansion of seismic coverage in China,called for a seismological reference model to be established in China.The China Seismological Reference Model(CSRM)project was initiated by the National Natural Science Foundation of China with two primary goals:(1)the CSRM would serve as a primary source for the current state of seismological research in China,and(2)the seismic data and constraints used to construct the CSRM would be used as a backbone open-access cyberinfrastructure for future research in seismology.The CSRM project was also intended to promote data exchange and scientific collaboration in seismology in China.Accordingly,two parallel efforts of the project are being pursued:(1)construction of the CSRM,and(2)development of a CSRM product center.The CSRM is jointly constrained by various types of seismic constraints extracted from the seismic data recorded at 4511 seismic stations in continental China following a top-down approach,with the seismic structures in the shallower part of the Earth constrained first.Construction of the CSRM involves three preparation steps:(1)building datasets of various seismic constraints from the seismic data,(2)developing a method to incorporate the constraints of surface wave observations from regional earthquakes into the inversion of the seismic structure,and(3)constructing high-resolution pre-CSRM seismic models of the velocity structure in the shallow crust and the Pn-velocity structure in the uppermost mantle.In the final process,the CSRM will be constructed by jointly inverting all the seismic constraints using the pre-CSRM models as starting models or a priori structures.The CSRM product center(http://***)archives and distributes three types of products:CSRM models,the Level 1 original seismic data used to extract seismic constraints in the construction of the CSRM,and Level 2 data on the seismic

关键词： China Seismological Reference Model seismic structure seismic hazard tectonics continental China

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