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seismic risk Assessment of the Railway Network of China’s Mainland

International Journal of Disaster risk Science 2020年第4期11卷 452-465页

作者： Weihua Zhu Kai Liu Ming Wang Elco E.Koks State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Institute for Environmental Studies(IVM) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HV AmsterdamThe Netherlands

Earthquakes pose a great risk to railway systems and services around the *** China alone,earthquakes caused 88 rail service disruptions between 2012 and ***,we present a first-of-its-kind methodology to analyze the seismic risk of a railway system using an empirically derived train service fragility *** demonstrate our methodology using the Chinese railway *** doing so,we generate a set of stochastic earthquake scenarios for China based on a national-scale seismicity *** disruption records,we construct an empirically grounded fragility curve that relates the failure probability of train services to peak ground *** combining the simulated earthquakes,the fragility curve,and empirical train flow data from 2016,we quantitatively assess the seismic impact and the risk faced by the Chinese railway *** maximum train trip loss could reach 2400 trips in response to a single seismic event,accounting for 34%of the national daily train *** to the spatially uneven daily train flow and seismicity distribution,the seismic impact on the railway system in different seismic zones is highly heterogeneous and does not always increase when the hazard intensity *** specifically,the results show that the railway lines located in the Qinghai-Tibet and Xinjiang seismic zones exhibit the highest *** generated impact curves and the risk map provide a basis for railway planning and risk management decisions.

关键词： Chinese railway system Fragility curve seismicity model seismic risk

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Detailed seismic risk analysis of electrical substation equipment using a reliability based approach

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2023年第2期22卷 495-511页

作者： Amir Ghahremani Baghmisheh Milad Khodaei Ali Zare Feiz Abadi Homayoon E.Estekanchi Department of Civil Engineering University of British ColumbiaVancouver V6T 2B8Canada Department of Civil Engineering University of TabrizTabriz 51666Iran Department of Civil Engineering Sharif University of TechnologyTehran 11155-9313Iran

This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability *** though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior *** proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in *** element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with previous *** uncertainties in the material,mass,and geometric properties of structures are described by random variables that are input to the finite element *** artificial ground motion model is employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty in ground *** Carlo sampling is subsequently conducted on the library of probabilistic *** analysis resulted in the loss distribution in the life cycle of ***,the loss associated with six earthquake scenarios having specific magnitudes and return periods is *** application provides insight into the most vulnerable equipment in the considered ***,introduced risk measures can guide stakeholders to make risk-based decisions to optimize design or prioritize a retrofit of infrastructure components under conditions of uncertainty.

关键词： seismic risk reliability analysis infrastructure components loss estimation uncertainty

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Resilience-incorporated seismic risk assessment of precast concrete frames with“dry”connections

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2024年第2期23卷 403-425页

作者： Wu Chenhao Tang Yuchuan Cao Xuyang Wu Gang Key Laboratory of Concrete and Prestressed Concrete Structures of the Ministry of Education Nanjing 211102China Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of CaliforniaLos AngelesCA 90095USA School of Civil Engineering Southeast UniversityNanjing 211102China College of Civil and Transportation Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210024China

A resilience-incorporated risk assessment framework is proposed and demonstrated in this study to manifest the advantageous seismic resilience of precast concrete frame(PCF)structures with“dry”connections in terms of their low damage and rapid *** framework integrates various uncertainties in the seismic hazard,fragility,capacity,demand,loss functions,and post-earthquake *** this study,the PCF structures are distinguished from ordinary reinforced concrete frame(RCF)structures by characterizing multiple limit states for the PCF based on its unique damage ***,probabilistic story-wise pushover analyses are performed to yield story-wise capacities for the predefined limit *** the seismic resilience analysis,a step-wise recovery model is proposed to idealize the functionality recovery process,with separate considerations of the repair and non-repair *** recovery model leverages the economic loss and downtime to delineate the stochastic post-earthquake recovery curves for the resilience loss *** such,contingencies in the probabilistic post-earthquake repairs are incorporated and the empirical judgments on the recovery parameters are largely *** proposed framework is demonstrated through a comparative study between two“dry”connected PCFs and one RCF designed as alternative structural systems for a prototype *** results from the risk quantification indicate that the PCFs show reduced loss hazards and lower expected losses relative to the ***,the PCF equipped with energy dissipation devices at the“dry”connections largely reduces the expected economic loss,downtime,and resilience loss by 29%,56%,and 60%,respectively,compared to the RCF.

关键词： precast concrete frame non-emulative precast system seismic resilience seismic risk functional recovery

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Characteristics of Late-Quaternary Activity and seismic risk of the Northeastern Section of the Longmenshan Fault Zone

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2013年第6期87卷 1674-1689页

作者： WANG Mingming ZHOU Bengang YANG Xiaoping XIE Chao GAO Xianglin Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano Institute of Geology CEA Sichuan Seistech Corporation Ltd. Key Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction Institute of Earthquake Science CEA Institute of Geology CEA

Following the 2008 Wenchuan M8 earthquake,the seismic risk of the northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone and the adjacent Hanzhong basin has become an issue that receives much *** is facing,however,the problem of a lack of sufficient data because of little previous work in these *** northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone includes three major faults：the Qingchuan fault,Chaba-Lin＇ansi fault,and Liangshan south margin fault,with the Hanzhong basin at the northern *** paper presents investigations of the geometry,motion nature,and activity ages of these three faults,and reveals that they are strike slip with normal faulting,with latest activity in the Late *** implies that this section of the Longmenshan fault zone has been in an extensional setting,probably associated with the influence of the Hanzhong *** analysis of the tectonic relationship between the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin,this work verifies that the Qingchuan fault played an important role in the evolution of the Hanzhong basin,and further studies the evolution model of this ***,with consideration of the tectonic setting of the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin as well as seismicity of surrounding areas,this work suggests that this region has no tectonic conditions for great earthquakes and only potential strong events in the future.

关键词： seismic risk northeastern Longmenshan fault zone Hanzhong basin Late-Quaternary activity

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The　stress　field　variation　caused　by　faulting　and　the　prediction　for　seismic　risk

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1994年第4期7卷 559-566页

作者：赵根模姚兰予马淑芹 1. Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality 300201 Tianjin China

The stress field caused by faulting has an effect on the stability of the neighboring faults, and the study on the fault interaction has a close relation with the prediction of seismic risk. Stress field caused by the rectangle fault in the semi-infinite elastic medium is calculated on the basis of the elastic dislocation theory. The result shows that most of the successive large earthquakes, in the southwestern part of China and North China, occurred in the increasing area of shear stress S(xy) and the decreasing area of normal stress S(yy) The increasing of earthquake occurrence probability has a function relation with the increasing of stress. Earthquake triggering is resulted from the increasing of shear stress and the decreasing of normal stress. An activation coefficient A, of the earthquake is defined to express the change of seismic activity. The concrete risk region can be obtained through space scanning of At value. Finally, the fault interaction in a large scope is discussed in this paper.

关键词： fault interaction variation of stress field earthquake triggering seismic risk

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Analysis of seismic risk at an Engineering Site from Site Effect seismic Intensity Data Using the Seismotectonic Method——Taking Six Reservoir Dam Sites in Western Anhui as an Example

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Earthquake Research in China 2003年第4期17卷 376-385页

作者： Zhang Jie, Wang Xingzhou and Shen XiaoqiSeismological Bureau of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province Hefei 230031 China

The seismotectonic method is used to study the seismogenic structures and the maximum potential earthquake around an engineering site in order to determine the seismic risk at the site. Analysis of seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data, in combination with regional seismo_geological data, using the seismotectonic method can provide a more reliable result. In this paper, taking the area of six reservoir dam sites in western Anhui as an example, we analyze the seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data in combination with the seismotectonic conditions and find that P (I≥i)=10% over 50 years. The result shows that the seismogenic structure and the maximum potential earthquake have a controlling effect on seismic risk from future earthquakes in the area around the site.

关键词： Engineering site Effect seismic intensity Seismogenic structure seismic risk

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Quantitative seismic risk Evaluation on Blind Faults in Offshore Areas of Tianjin,China

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Earthquake Research in China 2013年第4期27卷 542-552页

作者： Liu Hongyan Chen Yukun Yan Chengguo Yang Fei Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality

Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined *** seismo-geological data,and the historical and modern seismicity data,the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude M u and a t/b,the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are *** Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters,such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50～200a,are calculated.

关键词： seismic risk Quantitative evaluation Fault sub-area Frequency-magnituderelationship Maximum magnitude Occurrence probability Recurrenceperiod

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The Policies of seismic risk Management： Case of the Protected Areas of Dellys and Tenes Cities, Algeria

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Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 2017年第2期11卷 121-126页

作者： Farida Sehili Said Madani Laboratory PUViT University of Ferhat Abbas E1Bez 19000 S~tif Algeria

The greater part of urban heritage, especially of the medium and small Algerian cities, is subject to a major seismic risk. The probability of a happening earthquake is strong, and the territories vulnerability is great. Legislative procedures are implemented to support urban heritage and managing natural disasters. In fact, the PPSMVSS （permanent plan of safeguard and enhancement of saved sectors） as an instrument of protection, preservation and enhancement of this heritage, in its content, does not guide decision makers on how to manage the vulnerability of preserved areas from the earthquake. After the disaster of the earthquake that hit the Algerian Centre （wilaya of Boumerdes） in 2003. A legislative framework was created while other texts have been adapted. Emergency measures operations are launched to preserve the under threat monuments and protected areas. Saved sectors of Dellys, in the wilaya of Boumerdes and T6n^s in the wilaya of Chlef, are all the time subjected to seismic risk. This article presents a comparative study of two PPSMVSS, Dellys and T6n6s, and the management of the vulnerability of their two safeguarded areas. As a result of this study, some indicators were identified to allow the development of plans for the protection and management natural risks of these protected areas.

关键词： Safeguarded sector PPSMVSS catastrophe seismic risk management.

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Mapping seismic Vulnerability and risk of Cities： The MASSIVE Project

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Journal of Earth Science and Engineering 2012年第8期2卷 496-513页

作者： Charalampos Kontoes Themistoklis Herekakis Emmanouela Ieronymidi Iphigenia Keramitsoglou Anna Fokaefs Gerasimos A. Papadopoulos Sideris Paralikidis Dorothea Aifantopoulou Anna Maria Deflorio Daniela Iasillo Chris T. Kiranoudis Institute for Astronomy Astrophysics Space Applications and Remote Sensing National Observatory of Athens Athens GR152-36 Greece Institute of Geodynamics National Observatory of Athens Athens GR 118-10 Greece Geoapikonisis SA Athens GR 11-524 Greece Planetek Italia Srl Bari 1 70-123 Italy Department of Process Analysis and Plant Design School of Chemical Engineering National Technical University of A thensAthens 157-80 Greece

MASSIVE （mapping seismic vulnerability and risk of cities） is a GIS-based earthquake preparedness system that was developed under the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism project （GA No. 070401/2009/540429/SUB/A4）, in order to provide civil protection authorities with accurate, and easily transferable tools for generating up-to-date maps of seismic hazard, seismic vulnerability and seismic risk of buildings, at the scale of the single building block. In addition, MASSIVE developed and ran state-of-the-art models to assess the risk for population evacuation in dense urban agglomerations given an earthquake event. The MASSIVE methodology was designed, implemented and validated considering two European pilot sites, heavily struck by recent earthquakes, which are the western part of the Larger Metropolitan Area of Athens （GR）, and the city of L＇ Aquila in the Abruzzo Region （IT）. The validation of the results using past earthquake records shows that the performance of MASSIVE is prosperous, achieving a correlation between the modeled and the on-site measured PGAs （peak ground accelerations） higher than 0.75, while the correlation between the on-site reported building damages and the ones predicted by the MASSIVE system has been of the order of 0.80.

关键词： MASSIVE seismic risk damage assessment building vulnerability evacuation risk.

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Assessing Potential Earthquake Loss in Me′rida State, Venezuela Using Hazus

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International Journal of Disaster risk Science 2014年第3期5卷 176-191页

作者： América Bendito Jesse Rozelle Douglas Bausch Civil Engineering Department Universidad de Los AndesMe´rida 5101Venezuela Mitigation Division Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA)Region VIIIDenverCO 80225USA

The focus of the Hazus earthquake model has been largely U.S. centric due to a lack of standardized building-infrastructure data formats applicable *** a combined effort between FEMA Region VIII and the Universidad de Los Andes, Venezuela, the present study uses the Hazus 2.1 software to simulate earthquake loss estimations for Venezuela. Population totals and demographic distributions were developed using Oak Ridge National Labs Landscan 2008 population data and the census 2011 for Venezuela. The accuracy of the model was further enhanced for Me′rida State, located in western Venezuela, by collecting, incorporating, and developing region and specific inventories including soil maps, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility studies, demographic data, and building inventory information. We used USGS Shake Maps scenarios for two potential earthquake events with peak ground accelerations proposed within Performance Based seismic Engineering of Buildings, VISION 2000 recommendations. The region has not witnessed an earthquake with a magnitude greater than M 7 in the last120 years. Given the historical record of seismicity and the seismotectonics in the region, it becomes increasingly important to understand the potential implications from moderate to large earthquakes in Me′rida State, Venezuela.

关键词： Disaster loss estimation Earthquake damage Hazus seismic risk Venezuela

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