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Evolution of Coulomb failure stress in Sulaiman Lobe,Pakistan,and its implications for seismic hazard assessment

Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第2期7卷 282-294页

作者： Aiza Amjad Muhammad Shahid Riaz Urooj Shakir Muhammad Younis Khan Muhammad Ali Shah Bahria School of Engineering and Applied Sciences H-11 CampusBahriaBahria UniversityIslamabadPakistan Centre for Earthquake Studies National Centre for PhysicsIslamabadPakistan National Centre of Excellence in Geology University of PeshawarPeshawarPakistan GIS and Space Applications in Geosciences(G-SAG)Lab National Center of GIS and Space Applications(NCGSA)IslamabadPakistan

In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard *** Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian *** date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the *** thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the *** final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 *** used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these *** numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding *** earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this *** the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS *** CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 ***,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these *** necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.

关键词： Sulaiman Thrust Sulaiman Lobe earthquake triggering Coulomb failure stress seismic hazard assessment

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seismic hazard assessment of District Mansehra,Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa,Pakistan

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2014年第4期88卷 1157-1168页

作者： MONA Lisa COMSATS Institute of Information Technology(CIIT) Islamabad PakistanDepartment of Earth SciencesQuaid-i-Azam University

The site of Mansehra is located seismically in an active regime, known as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis in NW Himalayas, Pakistan. seismic hazard assessment （SHA） for the site has been carried out by considering the earthquake source zones, selection of appropriate attenuation equations, near fault effects and maximum potential magnitude estimation. The Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Fault, Banna Thrust, Balakot Shear Zone, Main Boundary Thrust, Panjal Thrust, Jhelum Fault and Muzaffarabad Fault and, further to the south, the Sanghargali, Nathiagali, and Thandiani Thrusts are the most critical tectonic features within the 50 km radius of Mansehra. Using the available instrumental seismological data from 1904 to 2007, SHA has been carried out. Other reactivated critical tectonic features in the area have been investigated. Among them the Balakot-Bagh fault, with the fault length of 120 km from Balakot to Poonch, has been considered as the most critical tectonic feature on the basis of geological/structural/seismological data. The potential earthquake of maximum magnitude 7.8 has been assigned to the Balakot-Bagh fault using four regression relations. The peak ground acceleration value of 0.25 g （10% probability of exceedance for 50 years） and 0.5 g has been calculated with the help of the attenuation equation using probabilistic and deterministic approaches.

关键词： seismic hazard assessment Mansehra District NW Himalayas Pakistan Probabilistic and Deterministic Approaches Balakot-Bagh Fault

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On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1994年第4期7卷 629-636页

作者：胡聿贤陈汉尧 Institute of Geophysics State Seismological Bureau Beijing China

In this paper, firstly the current analysis methods of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment (SHA) are systematically reviewed, and the existing problems are pointed out. At the same time, it is proposed that the uncertainties can be divided into three kinds, namely, randomness, fuzziness and incompleteness of knowledge, and they can be treated in a unified way. Then, based on marked point process theory, a general equation for SHA is obtained, and a general equation for uncertainty analysis is also given on the basis of total probability theorem. Finally, the relationship between the proposed analysis method with those currently used both at home and abroad is discussed. The analysis shows that they are just the special case of the proposed method.

关键词： seismic hazard assessment randomness fuzziness incompleteness of knowledge uncertainty

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Comprehensive Studies of seismic Forecast and seismic hazard assessment in Armenia, Current State and Prospects

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2021年第S1期95卷 55-58页

作者： Karapetyan JON LI Li Institute of Geophysics and Engineering Seismology named after A.Nazarov NAS RAGyumri3115Armenia Institute of Geophysics CEABeijing100081China

The study of geophysical processes in different layers of the Earth,seismic hazard assessment,earthquake prediction,*** topical fundamental and applied *** development of a modern adequate methodology for assessing se... 详细信息

关键词： seismic hazard assessment earthquake prediction earthquake monitoring Earth crust

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seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2013年第2期4卷 53-60页

作者： Yao Yunsheng Wang Qiuliang Li Jinggang Shen Xueling Kong Yuyang Key Laboratory of Earthquake Geodesy Institute of SeismologyChina Earthquake Administration

seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earth- quakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types： Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock （terrane） slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near- surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0. Therefore, the intensity of the earth- quakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-in- duced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.

关键词： Three Gorges Project reservoir induced earthquake seismic hazard assessment

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2013年第4期12卷 577-586页

作者： Thapa Dilli Ram Wang Guoxin State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.

关键词： seismic hazard assessment peak ground acceleration earthquake Nepal Himalaya

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Cursory seismic drift assessment for buildings in moderate seismicity regions

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2007年第1期6卷 85-97页

作者：朱勇 R．K．L．Su 周福霖 Earthquake Engineering Research Test Centre and Key Lab of Earthquake Engineering and Application Technology of Guangdong Province Guangzhou University Department of Civil Engineering The University of Hong Kong

This paper outlines a methodology to assess the seismic drift of reinforced concrete buildings with limited structural and geotechnical information. Based on the latest and the most advanced research on predicting potential near-field and far field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong, the engineering response spectra for both rock and soil sites are derived. A new step-by-step procedure for displacement-based seismic hazard assessment of building structures is proposed to determine the maximum inter-storey drift demand for reinforced concrete buildings. The primary information required for this assessment is only the depth of the soft soil above bedrock and the height of the building. This procedure is further extended to assess the maximum chord rotation angle demand for the coupling beam of coupled shear wall or frame wall structures, which may be very critical when subjected to earthquake forces. An example is provided to illustrate calibration of the assessment procedure by using actual engineering structural models.

关键词： seismic hazard assessment response spectrum soil site rock site displacement-based inter-storey drift coupling beams chord rotation angle

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Identification of hidden faults using determining velocity structure profile by spatial autocorrelation method in the west of Mashhad plain(Northeast of Iran)

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第12期18卷 3261-3274页

作者： Seyedeh Fatemeh NEMATI Naser HAFEZI MOGHADAS Gholam Reza LASHKARIPOUR Hosein SADEGHI Department of Geology Faculty of ScienceFerdowsi University of MashhadMashhad 91775-1436Iran

Characterizing the subsurface structure is an important parameter for the improvement of seismic hazard *** to the tectonic complexity of the earth,some deep fractures do not reach the earth's surface and are not detectable with visual ***,the lack of knowledge of faults and fractures can result in disasters,especially in urban *** geophysical methods can be used to estimate subsurface structure ***,a more reliable method is required to assess seismic hazards and reduce potential damage in metropolitan areas without destroying buildings and *** paper aims to identify hidden faults and structures using shear wave velocity *** do this,surface wave dispersion curve was extracted from the vertical component of microtremor array recording using the spatial autocorrelation(SPAC)method in two profiles and 13 array stations(perpendicular to the altitudes)to obtain shear wave velocity structure(Vs)in the west of Mashhad,northeast of *** results of shear wave velocity profiles(Vs)indicate sudden changes in the thickness of *** can be related to the displacement of a normal fault in this area causing the bottom rock to fall and an increase in the alluvial thickness in the central part of the *** velocity in the floor rock is 2000 meters per second in this *** to the surface outcrops and water wells data,its material is slate and Phyllite metamorphic rocks that are exposed in the adjacent ***,the seismic profile results were well consistent with electrical resistance data and well logs indicating that the tool array method is flexible,non-invasive,relatively fast,and effective for urban areas with satisfactory accuracy.

关键词： Subsurface Structure Hidden Fault Array Microtremor SPAC Method Vs Profile Mashhad seismic hazard assessment

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State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis for oil and gas pipeline system

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Earthquake Science 2010年第3期23卷 259-263页

作者： Aiwen Liu Kun Chen Jian Wu Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100081 China

The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline *** on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,***-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering *** from a city＇s water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed *** the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic *** the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis（DSHA）.A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East *** estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.

关键词： seismic hazard assessment oil and gas pipeline fault displacement

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Shallow destructive earthquakes

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Earthquake Science 2021年第1期34卷 15-23页

作者： Hongfeng Yang Suli Yao Earth System Science Programme Faculty of ScienceThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Shenzhen Research Institute The Chinese University of Hong KongShenzhenGuangdong 518057China

Depths of earthquake occurrence and large slip distribution are critical for seismic hazard *** examples show that earthquakes with similar magnitudes,however,can result in significantly different ground shaking and *** of the critical factors is that whether the large slip was generated near the ground *** this article,we reviewed two aspects that are important on this regard,shallow slip deficit and nucleation *** how shallow future earthquakes may nucleate in particular regions,such as shale gas fields,is critical for hazard *** or not a strong earthquake may slip significantly at shallow depths(less than 3 km)plays crucial rules in seismic hazard preparation and should be further investigated by integrating high-resolution fault zone observations,dynamic rupture simulation,and fault zone ***,precisely resolving shallow depth and slip distribution of earthquakes demands InSAR and/or other image data that can better capture the near-fault deformation to constrain the source parameters of earthquakes.

关键词： shallow earthquake shallow slip deficit nucleation depth seismic hazard assessment

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