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The Impact of sea level rise on Roadway Design and Evacuation Routes in Delaware

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American Journal of Climate Change 2024年第1期13卷 69-82页

作者： Jack Palevich Ardeshir Faghri Ahmet Karakurt Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Delaware Newark DE USA

As the global temperature continues to increase, the sea level continues to rise at a rapid rate that has never been seen before. This becomes an issue for many facets of life but one of the most impacted is the transportation infrastructure. Many people living in low elevation coastal areas can become trapped by flooding with no way in or out. With Delaware being a coastal state, this would affect a large portion of the population and will have detrimental effects over time if nothing is done to combat sea level rise. The issue with sea level rise in transportation is that once the roads become flooded, they become virtually unusable and detour routes would be needed. If all the roads in a coastal area were to be affected by sea level rise, the options for detours would become limited. This article looks at direct solutions to combat sea level rise and indirect solutions that would specifically help transportation infrastructure and evacuation routes in Delaware. There is not one solution that can fix every problem, so many solutions are laid out to see what is applicable to each affected area. Some solutions include defense structures that would be put close to the coast, raising the elevation of vulnerable roads throughout the state and including pumping stations to drain the water on the surface of the road. With an understanding of all these solutions around the world, the ultimate conclusion came in the form of a six-step plan that Delaware should take in order to best design against sea level rise in these coastal areas.

关键词： sea level rise Roadway Design Evacuation Routes

Prediction of the joint impacts of sea level rise and land development on distribution patterns of mangrove communities

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Forest Ecosystems 2023年第2期10卷 176-186页

作者： Shanshan Liang Wenjia Hu Peiqiang Wu Jianbu Wang Shangke Su Guangcheng Chen Jianguo Du Wenhua Liu Bin Chen Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration Third Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesXiamen361005China Institute of Marine Science Shantou UniversityShantou515063China First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Observation and Research Station of Coastal Wetland Ecosystem in Beibu Gulf Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeihai536015China

Mangrove distribution along shorelines shows distinct zonation patterns;thus,different communities may face various influences from sea level rise(SLR)and land use.However,long-term change predictions are usually based only on the total extent of mangroves.Few studies have revealed how SLR and land development such as agriculture,aquaculture,and urbanization jointly affect different intertidal mangrove communities.This study proposed a novel framework combining SLAMM(sea level Affecting Marshes Model)and the CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent)model to assess the potential impacts on upper and lower intertidal mangrove communities.Maoweihai in Guangxi,China,was selected as the study area and the potential impacts from the squeeze effect and mangrove expansion potential were evaluated.We established three scenarios combining SLR and land use patterns to predict mangrove coverage projections by 2070.The results showed that,under a single SLR driver,the upper intertidal mangroves would be more adaptive to rapid SLR than the lower intertidal mangroves.However,under the combined influence of the two drivers,the upper intertidal mangroves would experience larger squeeze effects than the lower intertidal mangroves,with up to 80.5%of suitable habitat lost.Moreover,the expansion potential of upper intertidal mangroves would be considerably more limited than that of lower intertidal mangroves.The length of the expandable habitat patch boundary of upper intertidal mangroves only reached 1.4–1.8 km,while that of the lower intertidal mangroves reached up to99.2–111.2 km.Further,we found that aquaculture ponds and cropland are the top two land development types that could occupy suitable habitat and restrict the mangrove expansion potential.Our results highlight that timely improvement of land use policies to create available landward accommodation space for mangrove migration is essential to maintain the coverage and diversity of mangrove communities under SLR.The proposed method can be a hel

关键词： Coastal development Climate change Mangrove communities Mangrove adaption Land use sea level rise

Potential effects of sea level rise on the soil-atmosphere green-house gas emissions in Kandelia obovata mangrove forests

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第4期42卷 25-32页

作者： Jiahui Chen Shichen Zeng Min Gao Guangcheng Chen Heng Zhu Yong Ye Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems College of the Environment and EcologyXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China Third Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesXiamen 361005China Fujian Provincial Station for Field Observation and Research of Island and Coastal Zone in Zhangzhou Xiamen 361005China

Mangrove forests are under the stress of sea level rise(SLR)which would affect mangrove soil biogeochemistry.Mangrove soils are important sources of soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,including carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),methane(CH_(4))and nitrous oxide(N_(2)O).Understanding how SLR influences GHG emissions is critical for evaluating mangrove blue carbon capability.In this study,potential effects of SLR on the GHG emissions were quantified through static closed chamber technique among three sites under different intertidal elevations,representing tidal flooding situation of SLR values of 0 cm,40 cm and 80 cm,respectively.Compared with Site SLR 0 cm,annual CO_(2) and N_(2)O fluxes decreased by approximately 75.0%and 27.3%due to higher soil water content,lower salinity and soil nutrient environments at Site SLR 80 cm.However,CH_(4) fluxes increased by approximately 13.7%at Site SLR 40 cm and 8.8%at Site SLR 80 cm because of lower salinity,higher soil water content and soil pH.CO_(2)-equivalent fluxes were 396.61 g/(m^(2)·a),1423.29 g/(m^(2)·a)and 1420.21 g/(m^(2)·a)at Sites SLR 80 cm,SLR 40 cm and SLR 0 cm,respectively.From Site SLR 0 cm to Site SLR 80 cm,contribution rate of N_(2)O and CH_(4) increased by approximately 7.42%and 3.02%,while contribution rate of CO_(2) decreased by approximately 10.44%.The results indicated that warming potential of trace CH_(4) and N_(2)O was non-negligible with SLR.Potential effects of SLR on the mangrove blue carbon capability should warrant attention due to changes of all three greenhouse gas fluxes with SLR.

关键词： carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide CO_(2)-equivalent fluxes sea level rise mangrove forest

sea-level rise impact on the evolution of a microtidal Mediterranean coastline without human-made structures——a case of the Port aux Princes-Sidi Daoued coastline,Gulf of Tunis,NE-Tunisia

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第3期38卷 72-77页

作者： Hanen Saidi Fouad Zargouni Geology Department Faculty of Sciences of TunisUniversity Tunis El Manar

The evolution of the natural and pristine Mediterranean coastline Port aux Princes-Sidi Daoued(Gulf of Tunis,NE-Tunisia) is studied during the period of 1887–2010 on the basis of an ancient minute of bathymetry(1887) and aerial photographs treated by numerical photogrammetric methods. Morphological changes of the coastline shows a general retreat despite the absence of the various anthropogenic actions. Adding to the drift currents and the currents of high energy that are generated by the N-W dominant waves along steeply sub-marine funds, the erosion is mainly due to the sea level rise which increased since the beginning of the 2000 s. The Port aux PrincesSidi Daoued coastline works as a single littoral cell limited by Jbel Korbous to the SW and the fishing harbor of Sidi Daoued to the N-E.

关键词： Mediterranean coastline erosion sea level rise littoral cell Gulf of Tunis Tunisia

sea level rise projection in the South China sea from CMIP5 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第3期34卷 31-41页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang QIAO Fangli Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

Future potential sea level change in the South China sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

关键词： sea level rise South China sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models

A realistic expectation of sea level rise in the Mexican Caribbean

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Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science 2019年第4期4卷 379-386页

作者： Alberto Boretti Department for Management of Science and Technology Development Ton Duc Thang UniversityHo Chi Minh CityVietnam Faculty of Applied Sciences Ton Duc Thang UniversityHo Chi Minh CityVietnam

This paper provides a realistic estimation of the sea level rise by 2050 and by 2100 in the Mexican Caribbean,and more specifically in the North-East side of the Yucatan peninsula,in between Cancun and Playa del Carmen,where the most part of the touristic developments of the Yucatan is located.The forecast is based on the relative sea level result for Key West,the closest long-term trend(LTT)tide gauge,the relative sea level results for all the other LTT tide gauge records of the world,and the absolute velocity of GPS domes located close to the Key West tide gauge,and in between Cancun and Playa del Carmen.The likely change of the sea level is 67-76 mm higher by 2050,and 201-223 mm higher by 2100,with reference to the values of 2018.

关键词： sea level rise sea level acceleration Subsidence Virtual world Real world

Future sea level rise along the coast of China and adjacent region under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 227-238页

作者： QU Ying LIU Yonggang Svetlana JEVREJEVA Luke P.JACKSON Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing100871China National Oceanography Center LiverpoolL35DAUK Programme for Economic Modelling Nuffield CollegeOxford UniversityOX1 INFUK

Although future sea level rise along the China coast has been projected by various studies for different representative concentration pathways(RCPs),the projections for different warming thresholds,e.g.1.5℃ and 2.0℃,have not been done specifically for this region,to the best of our knowledge.We provide such a projection here based on the climate projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).The projections are given for 20 tide-gauge stations along the coast of China,Korea,Japan,and Vietnam.Vertical land motion(VLM)is also estimated for stations that have tide gauge records and satellite altimetry both covering the period of 1993-2018.Local land motion(LLM)is then estimated by subtracting the land motion due to glacial isostatic adjustment(GIA)from VLM.Without considering LLM,sea level rise by 2100 at median probability is projected to be 38-49 cm relative to the average sea level over 1986-2005 under warming of 1.5℃,and increase to 46-57 cm when the warming threshold is increased to 2.0℃.The steric component is the main contributor to this increase in sea level.Inclusion of LLM will not affect the sea level increase between the two warming thresholds,but it will make the local sea level rise by 2100 at certain locations substantially higher(up to 36 cm)or lower(up to 13 cm).

关键词： sea level rise Coast of China Tide gauge records Vertical land motion Warming of 1.5℃ Warming of 2.0℃

Glacier geoengineering to address sea-level rise:A geotechnical approach

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第4期11卷 401-414页

作者： Andrew LOCKLEY Michael WOLOVICK Bowie KEEFER Rupert GLADSTONE Li-Yun ZHAO John C.MOORE University College London(Bartlett School) LondonWC1H 0QBUK College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing100875PR China Manastee Road Galiano IslandBritish ColumbiaBC V0N 1P0Canada Arctic Centre University of LaplandRovaniemi96101Finland Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory Zhuhai519082China

It is remarkable that the high-end sea level rise threat over the next few hundred years comes almost entirely from only a handful of ice streams and large glaciers.These occupy a few percent of ice sheets’coastline.Accordingly,spatially limited interventions at source may provide globally-equitable mitigation from rising seas.Ice streams control draining of ice sheets;glacier retreat or acceleration serves to greatly increase potential sea level rise.While various climatic geoengineering approaches have been considered,serious consideration of geotechnical approaches has been limited e particularly regarding glaciers.This study summarises novel and extant geotechnical techniques for glacier restraint,identifying candidates for further research.These include draining or freezing the bed;altering surface albedo;creating obstacles:retaining snow;stiffening shear margins with ice;blocking warm sea water entry;thickening ice shelves(increasing buttressing,and strengthening fractured shelves against disintegration);as well as using regional climate engineering or local cloud seeding to cool the glacier or add snow.Not all of these ideas are judged reasonable or feasible,and even fewer are likely to be found to be advisable after further consideration.By describing and evaluating the potential and risks of a large menu of responses e even apparently hopeless ones e we can increase the chances of finding one that works in times of need.

关键词： Climate intervention Targeted geoengineering Antarctica Greenland Glaciers sea level rise

Historical Change and Future Scenarios of sea level rise in Macao and Adjacent Waters

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第4期33卷 462-475页

作者： Lin WANG Gang HUANG Wen ZHON Wen CHEN Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperature East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing 100875 Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190

Against a background of climate change, Macao is very exposed to sea level rise （SLR） because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macao, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. sea level in Macao is now rising at an accelerated rate： 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr I over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macao contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macao will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the --8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65 118 cm--double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.

关键词： Macao sea level rise emissions scenario climate sensitivity vertical land movement uncertainty