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sea level rise projection in the South China sea from CMIP5 models

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2015年第3期34卷 31-41页

作者： HUANG Chuanjiang QIAO Fangli Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration

Future potential sea level change in the South China sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.

关键词： sea level rise South China sea dynamic sea level steric sea level CMIP5 models

Future sea level rise along the coast of China and adjacent region under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 227-238页

作者： QU Ying LIU Yonggang Svetlana JEVREJEVA Luke P.JACKSON Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing100871China National Oceanography Center LiverpoolL35DAUK Programme for Economic Modelling Nuffield CollegeOxford UniversityOX1 INFUK

Although future sea level rise along the China coast has been projected by various studies for different representative concentration pathways(RCPs),the projections for different warming thresholds,e.g.1.5℃ and 2.0℃,have not been done specifically for this region,to the best of our *** provide such a projection here based on the climate projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).The projections are given for 20 tide-gauge stations along the coast of China,Korea,Japan,and *** land motion(VLM)is also estimated for stations that have tide gauge records and satellite altimetry both covering the period of *** land motion(LLM)is then estimated by subtracting the land motion due to glacial isostatic adjustment(GIA)from *** considering LLM,sea level rise by 2100 at median probability is projected to be 38-49 cm relative to the average sea level over 1986-2005 under warming of 1.5℃,and increase to 46-57 cm when the warming threshold is increased to 2.0℃.The steric component is the main contributor to this increase in sea *** of LLM will not affect the sea level increase between the two warming thresholds,but it will make the local sea level rise by 2100 at certain locations substantially higher(up to 36 cm)or lower(up to 13 cm).

关键词： sea level rise Coast of China Tide gauge records Vertical land motion Warming of 1.5℃ Warming of 2.0℃

Sediment Dynamics Subject to sea level rise in the Yangtze River Estuary

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2024年第6期23卷 1572-1582页

作者： CHEN Wei BAN Haoyang MAO Chenhao LIANG Huidi JIANG Mingtao School of Marine Engineering Equipment Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan 316022China Key Laboratory of Ocean Space Resource Management Technology MNRHangzhou 310012China Second Institute of Oceanography MNRHangzhou 310012China School of Mechanics and Engineering Science Shanghai UniversityShanghai 200444China Marine Ecological Restoration and Smart Ocean Engineering Research Center of Hebei Province Qinhuangdao 066000China

In this study,a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is established to quantify the influences of sea level rise on sediment transport in the Yangtze River Estuary(YRE).After validation,the model was employed to investigate the sediment transport and seabed evolution under four different scenarios of sea level rise,specifically,0,0.5,1 and 1.5 *** results reveal that there exists a‘transition point(TP)'of SSC in each main channel of *** of the transition point,the suspended sediment concentration(SSC)increases along with the rise in sea level,while downstream of the transition point,SSC decreases as sea level ***,there are also transition points for topography *** maximum scouring rate upstream of the transition points exceeds 4.32% for a 1.5 m rise in sea level,while the maximum deposition rate downstream of the transition points is 2.48%.The sediment fluxes from upstream to downstream in the branches of YRE are enhanced by the rise in sea *** direction of sediment flux in the North Branch reverses downstream as sea level *** sediment flux from the North Channel towards downstream increases significantly,while there is no significant change in sediment flux for South *** deposition in the North Passage is also accelerated by sea level *** addition,the sediment flux from YRE to northern Jiangsu and Hangzhou Bay is also weakened by the rise in sea level.

关键词： sea level rise sediment transport erosion and deposition sediment flux

Effects of Vegetation Type on Surface Elevation Change in Liaohe River Delta Wetlands Facing Accelerated sea level rise

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Chinese Geographical Science 2017年第5期27卷 810-817页

作者： WANG Guodong WANG Ming JIANG Ming LYU Xianguo HE Xingyuan WU Haitao Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration of National Environmental Protection Northeast Normal University

Rising sea levels threaten the sustainability of coastal wetlands around the globe. The ability of coastal marshes to maintain their position in the intertidal zone depends on the accumulation of both organic and inorganic materials, and vegetation is important in these processes. To study the effects of vegetation type on surface elevation change, we measured surface accretion and elevation change from 2011 to 2016 using rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizon method （RSET-MH） in two Phragmites and two Suaeda marshes in the Liaohe River Delta. The Phragmites marshes exhibited higher rates of surface accretion and elevation change than the Suaeda marshes. The two Phragmites marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 8.78 mm/yr and 9.26 mm/yr and surface accretion rates at 17.56 mm/yr and 17.88 mm/yr, respectively. At the same time, the two Suaeda marsh sites had average surface elevation change rates at 5.77 mmJyr and 5.91 mm/yr and surface accretion rates at 13.42 mm/yr and 14.38 mm/yr, respectively. The elevation change rates in both the Phragmites marshes and the Suaeda marshes in the Liaohe River Delta could keep pace and even continue to gain elevation relative to averaged sea level rise in the Bohai sea reported by the 2016 State Oceanic Administration, Peo- ple＇s Republic of China projection （2.4-5.5 mm/yr） in current situations. Our data suggest that vegetation is important in the accretionary processes and vegetation type could regulate the wetland surface elevation. However, the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in the Liaohe River Delta need further assessment considering the accelerated sea level rise, the high rate of subsidence, and the declining sediment delivery, especially for the Suaeda marshes.

关键词： sea level rise wetland elevation surface accretion Phragmites marsh Suaeda marsh Liaohe River Delta

Prediction of the joint impacts of sea level rise and land development on distribution patterns of mangrove communities

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Forest Ecosystems 2023年第2期10卷 176-186页

作者： Shanshan Liang Wenjia Hu Peiqiang Wu Jianbu Wang Shangke Su Guangcheng Chen Jianguo Du Wenhua Liu Bin Chen Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration Third Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesXiamen361005China Institute of Marine Science Shantou UniversityShantou515063China First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Observation and Research Station of Coastal Wetland Ecosystem in Beibu Gulf Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeihai536015China

Mangrove distribution along shorelines shows distinct zonation patterns;thus,different communities may face various influences from sea level rise(SLR)and land ***,long-term change predictions are usually based only on the total extent of *** studies have revealed how SLR and land development such as agriculture,aquaculture,and urbanization jointly affect different intertidal mangrove *** study proposed a novel framework combining SLAMM(sea level Affecting Marshes Model)and the CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent)model to assess the potential impacts on upper and lower intertidal mangrove *** in Guangxi,China,was selected as the study area and the potential impacts from the squeeze effect and mangrove expansion potential were *** established three scenarios combining SLR and land use patterns to predict mangrove coverage projections by *** results showed that,under a single SLR driver,the upper intertidal mangroves would be more adaptive to rapid SLR than the lower intertidal ***,under the combined influence of the two drivers,the upper intertidal mangroves would experience larger squeeze effects than the lower intertidal mangroves,with up to 80.5%of suitable habitat ***,the expansion potential of upper intertidal mangroves would be considerably more limited than that of lower intertidal *** length of the expandable habitat patch boundary of upper intertidal mangroves only reached 1.4–1.8 km,while that of the lower intertidal mangroves reached up to99.2–111.2 ***,we found that aquaculture ponds and cropland are the top two land development types that could occupy suitable habitat and restrict the mangrove expansion *** results highlight that timely improvement of land use policies to create available landward accommodation space for mangrove migration is essential to maintain the coverage and diversity of mangrove commun

关键词： Coastal development Climate change Mangrove communities Mangrove adaption Land use sea level rise

Extreme sea level rise off the Northwest Coast of the South China sea in 2012

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2018年第5期17卷 991-999页

作者： LIU Lin LI Juan TAN Wei WU Yue LIU Yanliang WANG Huiwu Center for Ocean and Climate Research First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling First Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic Administration

Tide gauge data are used to investigate sea level variability offthe northwest coast of the South China sea （SCS） in 2012, and a significant sea level elevation with a magnitude approaching 79 mm is observed. Analysis suggests that an abnormal sea surface heat flux and freshwater flux may have contributed to this abnormal rise in sea level, together with the remote influence of an ENSO event. Further investigation shows that the event was dominated by the positive freshwater flux, where large volumes of water entered the ocean, and a maximum is centered to the south of Guangdong province, China. Simultaneously, a positive anomalous heat flux occurred in the northwestern part of the SCS, which is considered to have made a positive contribution to the high local sea level elevation. In addition to the heat flux, the ENSO event also had a significant effect on the event, where the La Nifia-induced northwest Pacific cyclone contributed to sea level rise over the northwestern SCS through dynamic and thermodynamic interactions.

关键词： sea level rise South China sea interannual variability extreme

Historical Change and Future Scenarios of sea level rise in Macao and Adjacent Waters

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第4期33卷 462-475页

作者： Lin WANG Gang HUANG Wen ZHON Wen CHEN Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperature East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Joint Center for Global Change Studies Beijing 100875 Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and Environment City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190

Against a background of climate change, Macao is very exposed to sea level rise （SLR） because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macao, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. sea level in Macao is now rising at an accelerated rate： 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr I over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macao contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macao will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the --8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65 118 cm--double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.

关键词： Macao sea level rise emissions scenario climate sensitivity vertical land movement uncertainty

Potential effects of sea level rise on the soil-atmosphere green-house gas emissions in Kandelia obovata mangrove forests

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2023年第4期42卷 25-32页

作者： Jiahui Chen Shichen Zeng Min Gao Guangcheng Chen Heng Zhu Yong Ye Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Coastal and Wetland Ecosystems College of the Environment and EcologyXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China Third Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural ResourcesXiamen 361005China Fujian Provincial Station for Field Observation and Research of Island and Coastal Zone in Zhangzhou Xiamen 361005China

Mangrove forests are under the stress of sea level rise(SLR)which would affect mangrove soil *** soils are important sources of soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,including carbon dioxide(CO_(2)),methane(CH_(4))and nitrous oxide(N_(2)O).Understanding how SLR influences GHG emissions is critical for evaluating mangrove blue carbon *** this study,potential effects of SLR on the GHG emissions were quantified through static closed chamber technique among three sites under different intertidal elevations,representing tidal flooding situation of SLR values of 0 cm,40 cm and 80 cm,*** with Site SLR 0 cm,annual CO_(2) and N_(2)O fluxes decreased by approximately 75.0%and 27.3%due to higher soil water content,lower salinity and soil nutrient environments at Site SLR 80 ***,CH_(4) fluxes increased by approximately 13.7%at Site SLR 40 cm and 8.8%at Site SLR 80 cm because of lower salinity,higher soil water content and soil ***_(2)-equivalent fluxes were 396.61 g/(m^(2)·a),1423.29 g/(m^(2)·a)and 1420.21 g/(m^(2)·a)at Sites SLR 80 cm,SLR 40 cm and SLR 0 cm,*** Site SLR 0 cm to Site SLR 80 cm,contribution rate of N_(2)O and CH_(4) increased by approximately 7.42%and 3.02%,while contribution rate of CO_(2) decreased by approximately 10.44%.The results indicated that warming potential of trace CH_(4) and N_(2)O was non-negligible with *** effects of SLR on the mangrove blue carbon capability should warrant attention due to changes of all three greenhouse gas fluxes with SLR.

关键词： carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide CO_(2)-equivalent fluxes sea level rise mangrove forest

Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global sea level rise based on CMIP5 Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 8-16页

作者： YAN Qing WANG Huijun Ola M.JOHANNESSEN ZHANG Zhongshi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Scientific Society Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Uni Research

sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

关键词： sea level rise Greenland ice sheet ice sheet modeling model evaluation