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Uncertainty in TC Maximum Intensity with Fixed Ratio of surface exchange coefficients for Enthalpy and Momentum

Journal of Meteorological Research 2022年第1期36卷 128-139页

作者： Hexin YE Zhanhong MA Jianfang FEI College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410005

The classical tropical cyclone(TC)maximum intensity theory of Emanuel suggests that the maximum azimuthal wind of TC depends linearly on the ratio of surface exchange coefficients for enthalpy and momentum(C_(k)and C_(d)).In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments are conducted with the three-dimensional Cloud Model 1(CM1),by fixing the ratio of C_(k)/C_(d)but varying the specific values of C_(k)and C_(d)*** results show significant variations in the simulated TC maximum intensity by varying C_(k)and C_(d),even if their ratio is ***,the maximum intensity increases steadily with increasing C_(k)and C_(d)when their value is smaller than 1.00×10^(-3),and then this increasing trend slows down with further increases in the *** previous theoretical frameworks—one based on gradient wind balance and the other incorporating the unbalanced terms-are applied to calculate the maximum potential intensity(PI).The calculated value of the former shows little variation when varying the specific values of C_(k)and C_(d),while the latter shows larger values with increases in both C_(k)and C_(d).Further examination suggests that the unbalanced effect plays a key role in contributing to the increasing intensity with increasing C_(k)and C_(d).

关键词： tropical cyclone maximum intensity surface exchange coefficients unbalanced effect

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On the Optimal Initial Inner-Core Size for Tropical Cyclone Intensification: An Idealized Numerical Study

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ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 2024年第11期41卷 2141-2155页

作者： Fei, Rong Wang, Yuqing Wuxi Univ Sch Atmospher Sci & Remote Sensing Wuxi 214105 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci State Key Lab Severe Weather Beijing 100081 Peoples R China Univ Hawaii Manoa Int Pacific Res Ctr Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol Dept Atmospher Sci Honolulu HI 96822 USA

Recent observational and numerical studies have revealed the dependence of the intensification rate on the inner-core size of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, with the initial inner-core size (i.e., the radius of maximum wind-RMW) varied from 20-180 km in idealized simulations using two different numerical models, we found a nonmonotonic dependence of the lifetime maximum intensification rate (LMIR) on the inner-core size. Namely, there is an optimal inner-core size for the LMIR of a TC. Tangential wind budget analysis shows that, compared to large TCs, small TCs have large inward flux of absolute vorticity due to large absolute vorticity inside the RMW. However, small TCs also suffer from strong lateral diffusion across the eyewall, which partly offsets the positive contribution from large inward flux of absolute vorticity. These two competing processes ultimately lead to the TC with an intermediate initial inner-core size having the largest LMIR. Results from sensitivity experiments show that the optimal size varies in the range of 40-120 km and increases with higher sea surface temperature, lower latitude, larger horizontal mixing length, and weaker initial TC intensity. The 40-120 km RMW corresponds to the inner-core size most commonly found for intensifying TCs in observations, suggesting the natural selection of initial TC size for intensification. This study highlights the importance of accurate representation of TC inner-core size to TC intensity forecasts by numerical weather prediction models.

关键词： tropical cyclones intensification inner-core size idealized simulations surface exchange coefficients PART II BOUNDARY-LAYER INTENSITY DYNAMICS

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