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Analysis of Precipitation Anomaly and a Failed Prediction During the Dragon-boat Rain Period in 2022

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第1期29卷 115-127页

作者：董少柔杨崧刘尉胡娅敏汪明圣刘燕 Guangdong Climate Center Guangzhou 510641 China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519000 China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Guangdong Meteorological Society Guangzhou 510080 China

This study investigates the possible causes for the precipitation of Guangdong during dragon-boat rain period(DBRP) in 2022 that is remarkably more than the climate state and reviews the successes and failures of the prediction in2022. Features of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST) are analyzed based on several observational datasets for nearly 60 years from meteorological stations and the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data. Results show that fluctuation of the 200-h Pa westerly wind as well as the westerly jet is strengthened due to the propagation of wave energy, leading to strong updraft over southern China. Activities of a subtropical high and a shear line provide favorable conditions for the transport of moisture to Guangdong. With the support of powerful southwest winds, extreme precipitation is induced. ENSO is a good indicator of atmospheric circulation at mid-and high-levels during the DBRP in2022 but it performs badly at low levels. During recent years, the influence of ENSO on precipitation during the DBRP has decreased obviously. The ssta of tropical southeast Atlantic(SEA) in spring may become the key indicator. During the years with warm SEA, wave trains propagate from northwest to southeast over Eurasia with energy enhancing the westerly jet, conducive to updraft over southern China and the occurrence of heavy precipitation. Meanwhile, the Rossby wave is triggered over Maritime Continent by heat sources of southern Atlantic-western Indian Ocean through the Gill response. Thus, strong transport of moisture and heavy rainfall occur.

关键词： dragon-boat rain period(DBRP) precipitation ENSO climate prediction ssta

Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2008年第3期27卷 161-171页

作者： YAN Yan ZHAO Xinyi ZHOU Liping College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of Ministry of Education Peking University Beijing 100871 China

Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages, year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST） variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961-2004 using singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies （ssta）in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole - like variation with the positive center located at southwest and negative center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in AI variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of AI variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition, the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of ssta and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration, which result in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the ssta in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivated Eurasian circulation of EA pattern, further to influence the wet - dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to - atmosphere forcing.

关键词： aridity index ssta teleconnection patterns SVD

Investigation of the Heat Budget of the Tropical Indian Ocean During Indian Ocean Dipole Events Occurring After ENSO

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2020年第3期19卷 525-535页

作者： XIA Haofeng WU Kejian College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

The Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) is an important natural mode of the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO). Sea surface temperature anomaly(ssta) variations in the TIO are an essential focus of the study of the IOD. Monthly variations of air-sea heat flux, rate of change of heat content and oceanic thermal advection in positive/negative IOD events(pIODs/nIODs) occurring after El Nino/La Nina were investigated, using long-series authoritative data, including sea surface wind, sea surface flux, ocean current, etc. It was found that the zonal wind anomaly induced by the initial ssta gradient is the main trigger of IODs occurring after ENSOs. In pIODs, ssta evolution in the TIO is primarily determined by the local surface heat flux anomaly, while in nIODs, it is controlled by anomalous oceanic thermal advection. The anomalous southwestern anticyclonic circulation in pIODs enhances regional differences in evaporative capacity and latent heat, and in nIODs, it augments the east-west difference in the advective thermal budget. Further, the meridional anomaly mechanism is also non-negligible during the development of nIODs. As the SWA moves eastward, the meridional SWA prevails near 60°E and the corresponding meridional anomalous current appears. The corresponding maximum meridional thermal advection anomaly reaches 200 Wm^-2 in September.

关键词： IODs after ENSO ssta air-sea heat flux oceanic thermal advection

A STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF SPRING INDIAN OCEAN ssta ON SUMMER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER THE EASTERN NW CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第1期17卷 27-35页

作者：江志红杨金虎张强 Key Laboratory of Chinese Ministry of Education for Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Chendu Institute of Plateau Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration National Climate Center

Based on monthly mean wind,geopotential height,specific humidity,and surface pressure of NCAR/NCEP reanalysis,NOAA-reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean,and daily precipitation data at 97 meteorological stations over the eastern NW China in the past 47 years,the threshold values for extreme precipitation events (EPE) are defined using the percentile method.Singular Value Decomposition and synthetic analysis methods are used to analyze the relationship between summer EPE in the eastern NW China and ssta in the preceding fall,winter,spring,and the concurrent summer.The result shows that preceding spring SST anomalies (ssta) in the Indian Ocean are clear indicators for the forecast of summer EPE in the eastern NW China,and a key area of impact is located in the equatorial Indian Ocean.When spring SST is anomalously high in the equatorial Indian Ocean,the meridional circulation averaged over 100°E-110°E will be anomalously ascending near the equator but anomalously descending near 30°N in the middle and upper troposphere from the concurrent to the subsequent summer.In the meantime,the Southwest Monsoon from the Indian Ocean will be anomalously weak and there will be no anomalous water vapor transport to the eastern NW China,resulting in a lack of EPE in the subsequent summer,and vice versa.In addition,in response to anomalously high SST in the equatorial Indian Ocean in spring,the South Asia high pressure tends to be strong in the subsequent summer and more to the west.In the anomalously low SST year,however,the South Asia high tends to be weak in the subsequent summer and more to the east.This is another possible cause of the variation of summer EPE in the eastern NW China.

关键词：极端降水事件 SVD ssta 东方 NW 中国印度洋

Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific ssta

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第10期44卷 890-898页

作者： Cholaw Bueh Liren Ji Chinese Acad Sci Inst Atmospher Phys LASG Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

The relationship between the anomalous East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity and the tropical Pacific SST anomalies has been identified using the results of 40-year integration of the IAP CGCM1 model and 10-year observational data, In the strong EAWM year, the western and central Pacific are dominated by positive SST anomalies while the eastern Pacific is negative ones. In the weak EAWM year, the ssta pattern is quite different and shows El Nio-like sstanomalies. The strong EAWM activity tends to create extra easterly flow to the east and extra westerly flow to the west of the warm ssta region over the equatorial western and central Pacific, thus leading to the enhancement of convergence and convection of the flow in this region and favorable to the maintenance and development of such an ssta pattern. On the other hand, the warm SST anomaly over the western and central Pacific, as a forcing, may lead to a specific pattern of the northern extratropical atmosphere, which is favorable to the strong

关键词： East Asian winter monsoon ocean-atmosphere coupled model tropical Pacific ssta composite analysis.

PRINCIPAL MODES OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC ssta IN JUNE, JULY AND AUGUST AND THEIR RELATIONS TO ENSO AND SAM

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第2期19卷 154-161页

作者：孙密娜管兆勇张蓬勃曹舒娅 Ministry-Province Co-founded Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University ofInformation Science & Technology (NUIST) Tianjin MeteorologicalAdministration Nanjing Municipal Meteorological Bureau Jiangsu Meteorological Administration

The relationships of variations of sea surface temperature anomalies (ssta) in the South Pacificwith ENSO and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) are examined in the present article byemploying the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1951 to 2006. Two principal modes of South Pacific ssta areobtained using the EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis for austral winter (June, July and August).Our results suggest that EOF1 is closely related with ENSO and EOF2 links to SAM. The EOF1 varieslargely on an interannual and EOF2 on a decadal scale. The time series of coefficients of EOF1 is highlycorrelated simultaneously with Nino3 index. However, the time series of coefficients of EOF2 issignificantly correlated with the March-April-May mean SAM index. Both the EOF1 and EOF2 are found insignificant correlation to summer precipitation over China. With higher-than-normal SSTs in the easternSouth Pacific and simultaneously lower SSTs in the western South Pacific in June-July-August, thesummertime rainfall is found to be less than normal in northern China. As displayed in EOF2 of ssta, inyears with lower-than-normal SSTs in mid-latitude southern and equatorial eastern Pacific andhigher-than-normal SSTs in the equatorial middle Pacific in March-April-May, the summer precipitation inAugust tends to be more than normal in regions south of Yangtze River.

关键词： ssta ENSO Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode South Pacific austral winter

El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation during the 4.2 ka event recorded by growth rates of corals from the North South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2020年第1期39卷 110-117页

作者： Shaohua Dang Kefu Yu Shichen Tao Tao Han Huiling Zhang Wei Jiang Guangxi Laboratory on the Study of Coral Reefs in the South China Sea Guangxi UniversityNanning 530004China Coral Reef Research Center of China Guangxi UniversityNanning 530004China School of Marine Sciences Guangxi UniversityNanning 530004China South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China College of Ocean Engineering Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China

The 4.2 ka event that occurred during the period from 4 500–3 900 a BP was characterized by cold and dry climates and resulted in the collapse of civilizations around the world. The cause of this climatic event, however, has been under debate. We collected four corals(Porites lutea) from Yongxing Island, Xisha Islands, South China Sea, dated them with the U-series method, and measured the annual coral growth rates using X-ray technology. The dating results showed that the coral growth ages were from 4 500–3 900 a BP, which coincide well with the period of the4.2 ka event. We then reconstructed annual sea surface temperature anomaly(ssta) variations based on the coral growth rates. The growth rate-based ssta results showed that the interdecadal ssta from 4 500–3 900 a BP was lower than that during modern times(1961–2008 AD). A spectral analysis showed that the ssta variations from4 500–3 900 a BP were under the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) activities. From 4 500–4 100 a BP, the climate exhibited La Nina-like conditions with weak ENSO intensity and relatively stable and lower ssta amplitudes. From 4 100–3 900 a BP, the climate underwent a complicated period of ENSO variability and showed alternating El Nino-or La Nina-like conditions at interdecadal time scales and large ssta amplitudes. We speculate that during the early and middle stages of the 4.2 ka event, the cold climate caused by weak ENSO activities largely weakened social productivity. Then, during the end stages of the 4.2 ka event, the repeated fluctuations in the ENSO intensity caused frequent extreme weather events, resulting in the collapse of civilizations worldwide. Thus, the new evidence obtained from our coral records suggests that the 4.2 ka event as well as the related collapse of civilizations were very likely driven by ENSO variability.

关键词： 4.2 ka event ENSO variability ssta coral growth rate Xisha Islands

Impact of climatic change on sea surface temperature variation in Subei coastal waters,East China

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2014年第6期32卷 1406-1413页

作者：王然于非 Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Research & Development Center of Marine Environmental Engineering and Technology Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences

Sea surface temperature(SST) variation in the Subei coastal waters,East China,which is important for the ecological environment of the Yellow Sea where Enteromorphaprolifera blooms frequently,is affected by the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM),El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).In this study,correlations between climatic events and SST anomalies(ssta)around the Subei(North Jiangsu Province,East China) Coast from 1981-2012 are analyzed,using empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and correlation analyses.First,a key region was determined by EOF analysis to represent the Subei coastal waters.Then,coherency analyses were performed on this key region.According to the correlation analysis,the EAWM index has a positive correlation with the spring and summer ssta of the key region.Furthermore,the Nino3.4 index is negatively correlated with the spring and summer ssta of the key region 1 year ahead,and the PDO has significant negative coherency with spring ssta and negative coherency with summer ssta in the key region 1 year ahead.Overall,PDO exhibits the most significant impact on ssta of the key region.In the key region,all these factors are correlated more significantly with ssta in spring than in summer.This suggests that outbreaks of Enteromorpha prolifera in the Yellow Sea are affected by global climatic changes,especially the PDO.

关键词：全球气候变化苏北地区中国东部近岸海域温度变化海表温度距平 ssta 太平洋十年涛动

Analyses of factors forming offshore SST anomaly (O-ssta) in China seas

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1998年第4期17卷 447-457页

作者： Wang Sizhen, Li Xuhua, Qi Jianhua and Su Yusong (Ocean University of Qingdao, Qingdao 266003, China) Ocean University of Qingdao Qingdao 266003 China

Based on the observations, the location and the strength of warm(cold) anomaly of SST in surnmer are conrolled mainly by the subtropical highs of atmosphere (typhoon track) on the off shore of the China seas. It may be considered for the physical causes that the factors forming O-ssta include the dynamic respome of upper layer ocean on tbe strong atmospheric forcing and the shallow sea effects. The former consists of the entrainment, the detrainment, the Ekman pumping and the convergence of surface warm watet; the later the tidal mixing and higher absorptivity. The parameterized expressions and the significance estimations of each factor are shown. The differences of both forming mechanisms and forming time-scales between the warm anomaly and the cold one are also indicated with different forcing systems.

关键词： Factor offshore ssta