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On the Mechanism of the Seasonal Variability of sst in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第3期22卷 451-462页

作者：胡瑞金刘秦玉孟祥凤 J.Stuart GODFREY Physical Oceanography Laboratory and Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate LaboratoryOcean University of China Qingdao 266003 Physical Oceanography Laboratory and Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate LaboratoryOcean University of China Qingdao 266003 CSIRO Division of Marine Research GPO Box 1538HobartTasmaniaAustralia

A general form of an equation that 'explicitly' diagnoses sst change is derived. All other equations in wide use are its special case. Combining with the data from an ocean general circulation model (MOM2) with an integration of 10 years (1987-1996), the relative importances of various processes that determine seasonal variations of sst in the tropical Indian Ocean are compared mainly for January, April, July and October. The main results are as follows. (1) The net surface heat flux is the most important factor affecting sst over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the region south of the equator in January; in April, its influence covers almost the whole region studied; whereas in July and October, this term shows significance only in the regions south of 10°S and north of the equator, respectively. (2) The horizontal advection dominates in the East African-Arabian coast and the region around the equator in January and July; in October, the region is located south of 10°S. (3) The entrainment is significant only in a narrow band centered on 10°S in April and the coastal region around the Arabian Sea and the equator in July. (4) As for sst, it decreases in January and July but increases in April and October in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, showing a (asymmetrical) semiannual variability; by contrast, the sst in the region south of the equator has an annual variability, decreasing in April and July and increasing in October and January.

关键词： new equation sst seasonal variation mechanism tropical Indian Ocean

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Robust GEFA Assessment of Climate Feedback to sst EOF Modes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2011年第4期28卷 907-912页

作者：范磊刘征宇刘秦玉 Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate LaboratoryOcean University of China Center for Climatic Research Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison Center of Climate Ocean-Atmosphere StudiesPeking University

Atmospheric response to sst variability was estimated using generalized equilibrium feedback analysis （GEFA） in the sst EOF space with synthesis data from an idealized climate model. Results show that the GEFA atmospheric response to the leading sst EOF modes is much more accurate and robust than the GEFA feedback matrix in physical space. Therefore, GEFA provides a practical method for assessing atmospheric response to large-scale sst anomalies in terms of the leading EOFs.

关键词： generalized equilibrium feedback analysis (GEFA) assessment climate feedback sst EOF

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Diagnosing sst Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第3期39卷 427-442页

作者： Ben TIAN Hong-Li REN Laboratory for Climate Studies&CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Institute of Tibetan Plateau&Polar MeteorologyChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeoscienceWuhan 430074China

In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center System Model,BCC;SM1.1(m). Forecast skills during the different ENSO phases are analyzed and it is shown that the ENSO forecasts appear to be more challenging during the developing phase, compared to the decay phase. During ENSO development, the sst prediction errors are significantly negative and cover a large area in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, thus limiting the model skill in predicting the intensity of El Nino. The large-scale sst errors, at their early stage, are generated gradually in terms of negative anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature over the central-western equatorial Pacific,featuring an error evolutionary process similar to that of El Nino decay and the transition to the La Nina growth ***, for short lead-time ENSO predictions, the initial wind errors begin to play an increasing role, particularly in linking with the subsurface heat content errors in the central-western Pacific. By comparing the multiple samples of initial fields in the model, it is clearly found that poor sst predictions of the Nino-3.4 region are largely due to contributions of the initial errors in certain specific locations in the tropical Pacific. This demonstrates that those sensitive areas for initial fields in ENSO prediction are fairly consistent in both previous ideal experiments and our operational predictions,indicating the need for targeted observations to further improve operational forecasts of ENSO.

关键词： ENSO prediction initial errors error evolution sst

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Asymmetric response of the eastern tropical Indian sst to climate warming and cooling

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2019年第5期38卷 76-85页

作者： Shan Xu Yiyong Luo Fukai Liu College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of China Physical Oceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China

The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(sst) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the sst asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between sst and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the sst skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative sst skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-sst feedback.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean sst asymmetry climate warming climate cooling negative sst skewness

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The Relationship Between Indian Ocean sst and Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over North Indian Ocean in May

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热带气象学报:英文版 2023年第3期29卷 359-369页

作者：陈艳晏红明陶云杨坤琳王梦秋 Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Sciences Kunming 650034 China Research Centre for Disastrous Weather in Hengduan Mountains&Low-latitude Plateau CMAKunming 650034 China Yunnan Climate Centre Kunming 650034 China Meteorological Bureau of Dali DaliYunnan 671000 China Meteorological Observatory of Chengjiang County YuxiYunnan 652599 China

Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual *** conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016,the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean sst and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this ***,the potential mechanism concerning the effect of sst anomaly on TC frequency is also *** findings are as follows:1)there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and sst in the Indian Ocean from March to May,with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO);2)the anomalies of sst in SWIO(SWIO-sst)are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean,which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence,mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO;3)the increasing trend of SWIO-sst may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.

关键词： North Indian Ocean frequency of tropical cyclone genesis sst teleconnection

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Asymmetric Response of the South China Sea sst to El Nio and La Nia

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2013年第2期12卷 272-278页

作者： HUANG Zhuo DU Yan WU Yanling XU Haiming State Key Laboratory of Oceanography in Tropics South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Guangxi Climate Center College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature （sst） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated according to its relationship with E1 Nifio/La Nifia （EN/LN） using monthly products from ICOADS. The SCS sst bears two peaks associated with EN/LN and shows the asymmetric features. Coinciding with the mature phase of EN/LN, the first sst warming/cooling peaks in December（0）-February（1）（DJF（1）） and centers in the southern part. The major difference is in the amplitude associated with the strength of EN/LN. However, the SCS sst anomaly shows distinct difference after the mature phase of EN/LN. The EN sst warm- ing develops a mid-summer peak in June-August（1）（JJA（1）） and persists up to September-October（l）, with the same amplitude of the first warming peak. Whereas the LN sst cooling peaks in May（l）, it decays slowly until the end of the year, with amplitude much weaker. Comparing with sst and atmospheric circulations, the weak response and early termination of the second cooling is due to the failure of the cyclonic wind anomalies to develop in the northwest Pacific during JJA（1）.

关键词： sst South China Sea (SCS) E1 Nifio/La Nifia asymmetric responses interannual variability

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THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS AND LOCAL sst OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第2期17卷 120-127页

作者：袁俊鹏江静 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

Tropical Cyclone (TC) tracks over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1949–2007, obtained from China Meteorological Administration/Shanghai Typhoon institute, are classified into three track types. These types are the main pathways by which TCs influence the coast of East Asia. The relationships between local sea surface temperature (sst) in WNP and TC tracks are revealed. Results show that the local sst plays an important role in TC tracks, though the relationships between local sst and the frequencies of different TC tracks are very dissimilar. The local sst has significant positive correlation with northwest-path TCs, and negative correlation with recurving-path TCs. However, the west-path TCs do not have statistically significant relationship with the local sst. The upper sea temperature anomalies which influence TC tracks last about six months before TC occurrence. Further analysis indicates that the ocean conditions influence TC tracks by modifying the atmospheric circulation, and then the modified atmospheric circulation can affect TC’s genesis location and motion.

关键词： tropical cyclone track western North Pacific sst

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Different Relationships Between Spring sst in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and Summer Precipitation in China

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第4期27卷 509-520页

作者：李熠武炳义杨秋明黄世成 Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

Observational and reanalysis data are used to investigate the different relationships between boreal spring sea surface temperature （sst） in the Indian and Pacific oceans and summer precipitation in China. Partial correlation analysis reveals that the effects of spring Indian Ocean sst （IO sst） and Pacific sst （Psst） anomalies on summer precipitation in China are qualitatively opposite. When IO sst anomalies are considered independently of Psst anomalies, precipitation decreases south of the Yangtze River, in most areas of Inner Mongolia, and in some parts of Liaoning Province, and increases in the Yangtze River valley, parts of southwestern and northern China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang Province. This results in a negative-positive-negative-positive pattern of precipitation anomalies in China from south to north. When Psst anomalies （particularly those in the Nin o3.4 region） are considered independently of IO sst anomalies, the pattern of precipitation anomalies in China is positive-negative-positive-negative from south to north. The genesis of summer precipitation anomalies in China is also examined when El Nin o-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals are removed from the ocean and atmosphere. An anticyclonic low-level wind anomaly forms in the South China Sea-Northwest Pacific area when the IO sst anomaly （sstA） is warm and the Northwest Pacific sstA is cold. This anticyclonic anomaly substantially influences summer precipitation in China. Anomalous warming of tropical IO sst induces positive geopotential height anomalies in the subtropics and an east-west dipole pattern in midlatitudes over Asia. These anomalies also affect summer precipitation in China.

关键词： Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean sst summer precipitation

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THE EVALUATION, DATA FUSION AND APPLICATION OF FY2E sst IN TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第3期24卷 280-287页

作者： JIN Shuang-long HU Liang DENG Di-fei LIU Xiao-lin SONG Zong-peng l. State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy ＆ Storage Systems China Electric Power Research Institute Beijing 100192 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China School of Physical Environmental and Mathematical Sciences University of New South Wales Canberra ATC 2600 Australia . Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The daily FY2 E Sea Surface Temperature(sst) data from China National Satellite Meteorological Center(NSMC) was evaluated and compared with the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OIsst) data from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) over Northwest Pacific Ocean(NPO) in this study. The results show that the distribution of FY2 E sst is close to OIsst in tropical region over NPO, especially in typhoon active season, but the value of FY2 E sst is a little lower than that of OIsst in tropical ocean, with the absolute deviation 1℃ lower and the relative deviation about 6% lower. The correlation coefficient between monthly FY2 E sst and monthly OIsst is as high as 0.7, which passes the t-test at a significance level of 0.01. Based on the evaluation result, the merged sst_(FY)over NPO is calculated using a weighting function. Besides, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential(TCHP_(FY)) is calculated and combined with the simulated sea temperature profile. From three years operational tests in NSMC, the merged sst_(FY)and TCHP_(FY)are shown to be good indexes in monitoring and predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over NPO.

关键词： sst data fusion TCHP tropical cyclone

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Impact of Global sst on Decadal Shift of East Asian Summer Climate

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2009年第2期26卷 192-201页

作者：付建建李双林罗德海 College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography Ocean University of China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre (NZC) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

East Asia experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift around the late 1970s, with more floods in the valley of the Yangtze River of central-eastern China and more severe drought in North China since then. Whether global sst variations have played a role in this shift is unclear. In the present study, this issue is investigated by ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the GFDL AM2, since one validation reveals that the model simulates the observed East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） well. The results suggest that decadal global sst variations may have played a substantial role in this climate shift. Further examination of the associated atmospheric circulation shows that these results are physically reasonable.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal shift sst AGCM

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