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Applying discrete seir model to characterizing MERS spread in Korea

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International Journal of modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing 2016年第4期7卷 23-35页

作者： Chi-Myung Kwon Jae Un Jung Department of Management Information Systems Dong-A University Busan49236Republic of Korea BK21PLUS Groups Dong-A University Busan49236Republic of Korea

Since the first outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome(MERS),Korea has a quite rapid MERS spread compared to other *** causes for such a sudden increase include the undiagnosed initial patient and lapses in infection control *** characterize MERS infection and transmission,this paper applies the period-based discrete seir *** people of seir model shows a good fit to observed patients and MERS will become extinct around 113 days since the first *** an effective quarantine plan,if we can reduce exposable people by 20%,it is estimated that the maximum number of infectious people may decrease by about 69%and MERS fade-out period will be shortened by about 30%.Simulations on assumed model support that Korean government’s two policies to control MERS infection rate are effective in lessening its *** on reproduction ratio scenarios in seir model indicates that success in early infection control practices is critical for shortening the period of disease *** there are some restrictions and assumptions on seir model simulation,our simulation results are to be helpful in developing strategies to prevent the infectious diseases like MERS.

关键词： MERS in Korea seir model simulation MERS control policy

Traveling waves for a diffusive seir epidemic model with standard incidences

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Science China Mathematics 2017年第5期60卷 813-832页

作者： TIAN BaoChuan YUAN Rong School of Mathematical Sciences Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

This paper is devoted to the existence of the traveling waves of the equations describing a diffusive susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered(seir) model. The existence of traveling waves depends on the basic reproduction rate and the minimal wave speed. We obtain a more precise estimation of the minimal wave speed of the epidemic model, which is of great practical value in the control of serious epidemics. The approach in this paper is to use the Schauder fixed point theorem and the Laplace transform. We also give some numerical results on the minimal wave speed.

关键词： traveling waves seir model Schauder fixed point theorem

GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF AN seir EPIDEMIC model WITH IMMIGRATION OF DIFFERENT COMPARTMENTS

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Acta Mathematica Scientia 2006年第3期26卷 551-567页

作者：张娟李建全马知恩 Department of Mathematics Xi'an Jiaotong University Xi'an 710049China

The seir epidemic model studied here includes constant inflows of new susceptibles, exposeds, infectives, and recovereds. This model also incorporates a population size dependent contact rate and a disease-related death. As the infected fraction cannot be eliminated from the population, this kind of model has only the unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. Under the special case where the new members of immigration are all susceptible, the model considered here shows a threshold phenomenon and a sharp threshold has been obtained. In order to prove the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium, the authors introduce the change of variable, which can reduce our four-dimensional system to a three-dimensional asymptotical autonomous system with limit equation.

关键词： seir model population size dependent contact rate compartment infected individual compound matrix

Epidemic Dynamics Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Modified seir model with Symptom Classifications

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Epidemic Dynamics Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Modified SEIR...

An Adaptive Vaccination Strategy for a seir Epidemic model with Incomplete Parametrical Knowledge

第40届中国控制会议

作者： Meng Yuan Yi-Xuan Guo Xue-Yi Liu Yi-Kang Wang Bao-Lin Zhang College of Science China Jiliang University College of Automation and Electronic Engineering Qingdao University of Science & Technology

The prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic is a great challenge for human beings *** the battle against COVID-19,the hierarchical treatment measures based on symptom classifications have proved to be a particularly effective way to deal with the large-scale epidemic in the absence of adequate medical *** paper deals with the epidemic dynamic analyses of the COVID-19 based on a modified seir model with different ***,by taking symptom classifications and hierarchical treatments of patients into account,a modified seir model is ***,the proposed differential equations model is solved by using Runge-Kutta methods,and the parameters herein are estimated by least square principle based on the data released by the National Health *** results of the model show that the introduction of symptom classifications in the seir model can not only improve the fitting accuracy,but also precisely describe the evolution rules and mutual transfer rules of patients with different *** model can provide theoretical support for decision-making of the corresponding government departments,especially for the construction of mobile cabin hospitals and the reasonable preparation of important epidemic prevention resources.

关键词： COVID-19 Symptom classification seir model Epidemic prediction

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An Adaptive Vaccination Strategy for a SEIR Epidemic Model w...

ANALYSIS OF A seir EPIDEMIC model WITH TWO TIME DELAYS

第三十届中国控制会议

作者： M.De la Sen S.Alonso-Quesada A.Ibeas University of the Basque Country Campus of LeioaBizkaiaSpain

＜正＞This paper is devoted to the design of a vaccination strategy for a seir model with incomplete knowledge about the populations.

关键词： Epidemic model seir model Observer Vaccination

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ANALYSIS OF A SEIR EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH TWO TIME DELAYS

Global Analysis of an seir Epidemic model with Nonlinear Incidence Rates

第十届动力学与控制学术会议

作者： Lina Guo Haihong Liu Fang Yan Department of mathematics Yunnan Normal University

This paper presents an investigation of stability and Hopf bifurcation of the epidemic model with saturation recovery rate and two time delays. In our model, two time delays represent the latent period of the epidemic and the recovery period of infected compartment with hospital treatment, respectively. In addition, the basic reproductive number R is obtained. Moreover, we have shown that this model has positive equilibrium M. By linearizing the system at the positive equilibrium M and analyzing the associated characteristic equation, the asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium M is investigated and Hopf bifurcations are demonstrated. Further, the direction and stability of the local Hopf bifurcation are determined by using the normal form theory and center manifold theorem for functional differential equations. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results.

关键词： seir model delay saturation recovery rate stability Hopf bifurcation

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Chinese Quarterly Journal of Mathematics 2016年第3期31卷 237-247页

作者：贾滢刘俊利 School of Science Xi'an Polytechnic University

In this paper,an seir model with nonlinear incidence rates are *** basic reproduction number R_0 characterizes the disease transmission dynamics: if R_0≤ 1,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease always dies out,if R_0> 1 then there is a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists.

关键词： seir model nonlinear incidence rate compound matrices global stability

Prediction of Disease Transmission Risk in Universities Based on seir and Multi-hidden Layer Back-propagation Neural Network model

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IJLAI Transactions on Science and Engineering

IJLAI Transactions on Science and Engineering 2024年第1期2卷 24-31页

作者： Jiangjiang Li Lijuan Feng School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering Zhengzhou University of Science and TechnologyZhengzhou 450064 China

Against the background of regular epidemic prevention and control,in order to ensure the return of teachers to work,students to return to school and safe operation of schools,the risk of disease transmission is analyzed in key areas such as university canoons,auditoriums,teaching buildings and *** risk model of epidemic transmission in key regions of universities is established based on the improved seir model,considering the four groups of people,namely susceptible,latent,infected and displaced,and their mutual transformation *** feature post-processing,the selected feature parameters are processed with monotone non-decreasing and smoothing,and used as noise-free samples of stacked sparse denoising automatic coding network to train the ***,the feature vectors after dimensionality reduction of the stacked sparse denoising automatic coding network are used as the input of the multi-hidden layer back-propagation neural network,and these features are used as tags to carry out fitting training for the *** results show that the implementation of control measures can reduce the number of contacts between infected people and susceptible people,reduce the transmission rate of single contact,and reduce the peak number of infected people and latent people by 61%and 72%respectively,effectively controlling the disease spread in key regions of *** method is able to accurately predict the number of infections.

关键词： Disease transmission seir model Prediction Stacked sparse denoising automatic coding network

Phase-and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China

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Frontiers of Medicine 2020年第2期14卷 199-209页

作者： Ruijie Chang Huwen Wang Shuxian Zhang Zezhou Wang Yinqiao Dong Lhakpa Tsamlag Xiaoyue Yu Chen Xu Yuelin Yu Rusi Long Ning-Ning Liu Qiao Chu Ying Wang Gang Xu Tian Shen Suping Wang Xiaobei Deng Jinyan Huang Xinxin Zhang Hui Wang Yong Cai School of Public Health Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China Department of Cancer Prevention Shanghai Cancer CenterFudan UniversityDepartment of OncologyShanghai Medical CollegeFudan UniversityShanghai 200025China Department of Environmental and Occupational Health School of Public HealthChina Medical UniversityShenyang 110122China State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics Shanghai Institute of HematologyNational Research Center for Translational Medicine(Shanghai)Ruijin Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology National Research Center for Translational Medicine(Shanghai)Ruijin Hospital and Ruijin Hospital North Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200025China

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 in China was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in *** implementation of prevention and control measures,the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed.A phase-and region-adjusted seir model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan,Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in *** estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province,which is 55303–84520 and 83944–129312,respectively,while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13,2020 with the estimated 13035–19108 *** to the estimation,the outbreak would abate in March and April all over *** estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the ***,there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration,especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei *** prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.

关键词： seir model COVID-19 estimate China