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A compartment and metapopulation model of rocky mountain spotted fever in southwestern United States and northern Mexico

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第3期9卷 713-727页

作者： Laura Backus Patrick Foley Janet Foley School of Veterinary Medicine Department of Medicine and EpidemiologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA Department of Biological Sciences California State UniversitySacramentoCAUSA

rocky mountain spotted fever(RMSF)is a fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease that has emerged as an epidemic in western North America since the turn of the 21st *** the US south-western border and across northern Mexico,the brown dog tick,Rhipicephalus sanguineus,is responsible for spreading the disease between dogs and *** widespread nature of the disease and the ongoing epidemics contrast with historically sporadic patterns of the *** dogs are amplifying hosts for the Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria,transmission dynamics between dogs and ticks are critical for understanding the *** this paper,we developed a compartment metapopulation model and used it to explore the dynamics and drivers of RMSF in dogs and brown dog ticks in a theoretical region in western North *** discovered that there is an extended lag—as much as two years—between introduction of the pathogen to a naïve population and epidemic-level transmission,suggesting that infected ticks could disseminate extensively before disease is detected.A single large city-size population of dogs was sufficient to maintain the disease over a decade and serve as a source for disease in surrounding smaller *** model is a novel tool that can be used to identify high risk areas and key intervention points for epidemic RMSF spread by brown dog ticks.

关键词： Compartment model rocky mountain spotted fever SIR model Metapopulation Zoonosis

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