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risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province

引用

Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2020年第4期9卷 146-147页

作者： Hui Wan Jing-An Cui Guo-Jing Yang Jiangsu Key Lab for NSLSCS School of Mathematical SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingChina Department of Mathematics School of ScienceBeijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureBeijingChina Hainan Medical University Haikou571199China Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Socinstrasse 57BaselCH-4002Switzerland University of Basel BaselSwitzerland

Background In December 2019,an outbreak of coronavirus disease(later named as COVID-19)was identified in Wuhan,China and,later on,detected in other parts of *** aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures,estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical *** A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is ***-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province,including the cumulative confirmed cases,the cumulative deaths,newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020,were archived from the National Health Commission of China(NHCC).We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method and estimate the control reproduction number(Rc),as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio-Re(t),of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei *** The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36(95%CI:3.20–3.64)and Re(t)has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020,which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 ***,our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected,and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or *** calculating the effective reproduction ratio,we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30%of the normal level by April,*** To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly,it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures,including travel restriction

关键词： COVID-19 risk estimation and prediction Intervention measure Contact tracing Control reproduction number Effective daily reproduction ratio Mathematical model

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