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Migration mechanism and Risk assessment of perand polyfluoroalkyl substances in the Ya'Er Lake oxidation pond area,China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第2期136卷 301-312页

作者： Chang Li Huifang Zhong Jing Wu Lingyi Meng Yingjun Wang Chunyang Liao Yawei Wang Yujian He University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China Institute of Biomedical and Health Engineering Shenzhen Institute of Advanced TechnologyChinese Academy of SciencesShenzhen 518055China China National Environmental Monitoring Centre Beijing 100012China Hubei Key Laboratory of Environmental and Health Effects of Persistent Toxic Substances Institute of Environment and HealthJianghan UniversityWuhan 430056China

The migration mechanisms,sources,and environmental risks of 29 legacy and emerging perfluorinated and polyfluoroalkyl species present in an oxidation pond(Ya'Er Lake)were investigated for treating sewage based on the analysis of their occurrence and distribution.The concentration of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances(PFAS)in pond area was between0.30 and 63.2 ng/g dw(dry weight),with the overall average concentration of 8.00 ng/g dw.Notably,the PFAS concentrations in the surface sediments near the sewage outlet in Pond-1(50.2 ng/g dw)and Pond-5(average 15.1 ng/g dw)were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than those in other areas.In general,the legacy PFAS,i.e.,perfluorooctane sulfonic acid was considered to be the major pollutant in the polluted area,on average,accounting for 73.0%of the total concentration of PFAS pollutants.By evaluating the regional distribution of different PFAS homologs,the short-chain PFAS pollutants with lower K_(ow)were found to migrate farther in both horizontal and vertical directions.The sewage outlets in Pond-1 and Pond-5are the main pollution sources in polluted area and the emerging PFAS pollutants in Pond-5have replaced the legacy PFAS pollutants as the main pollutants.Based on positive matrix factorization analysis,three main industrial sources of PFAS pollutants in the study area were identified:protective coating,fire-fighting,and food packaging sources.Moreover,the environmental Risk assessment results showed that most study areas exhibited medium environmental risk(0.01≤risk quotient(RQ)risks in this area need further attention.

关键词： Perfluoroalkyl substances Distribution Migration mechanism Risk assessment

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Risk assessment and binding mechanisms of potentially toxic metals in sediments from different water levels in a coastal wetland

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第7期129卷 202-212页

作者： Fusheng Sun Guanghui Yu Xingxing Han Zhilai Chi Yunchao Lang Congqiang Liu Institute of Surface-Earth System Science School of Earth System ScienceTianjin Key Laboratory of Earth Critical Zone Science and Sustainable Development in Bohai RimTianjin UniversityTianjin 300072China

The excessive accumulation of potentially toxic metals(Pb and Cd)in coastal wetlands is among the main factors threateningwetland ecosystems.However,the effects ofwater table depth(WTD)on the risk and binding mechanisms of potentially toxic metals in sediments remain unclear.Here,sediments from different WTD obtained from a typical coastal wetland were evaluated using a newly developed strategy based on chemical extraction methods coupled with high-resolution spectroscopy.Our findings indicated that the WTD of the coastal wetland fluctuates frequently and the average enrichment factor for Pb was categorized as minor,whereas Cd enrichment was categorized as moderate.High-resolution spectroscopy techniques also demonstrated that organic functional groups and partly inorganic compounds(e.g.,Fe-O/Si-O)played a vital role in the binding of Pb and Cd to surface sediments.Additionally,mineral components rather than organic groups were mainly bound to thesemetals in the bottom sediments.Collectively,our findings provide key insights into the potential health effects and binding characteristics of potentially toxic metals in sediments,as well as their dynamic behavior under varying sediment depths at a microscale.

关键词： Coastal wetlands Wetland sediment Toxic metals Risk assessment Synchrotron radiation Binding mechanisms

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Occurrence, distribution and Risk assessment of antibiotics at various aquaculture stages in typical aquaculture areas surrounding the Yellow Sea

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第4期126卷 621-632页

作者： Jiachao Zhang Xuanrui Zhang Yang Zhou Qianfan Han Xiaoli Wang Chao Song Shuguang Wang Shan Zhao Shandong Key Laboratory of Water Pollution Control and Resource Reuse School of Environmental Science and EngineeringShandong UniversityQingdao 266237China Water Science and Environmental Engineering Research Center College of Chemical and Environmental EngineeringShenzhen UniversityShenzhen 518060China Qingdao Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment Qingdao 266003China Analysis and Test Center Qilu University of Technology(Shandong Academy of Sciences)Jinan 250014China

The pollution of antibiotics commonly existed throughout the entire aquaculture process,but the residues of antibiotics at different aquaculture stages have rarely been studied.This study investigated the occurrence,distribution and Risk assessment of antibiotics at different aquaculture stages (the non-aquaculture stage,the early aquaculture stage,the middle aquaculture stage,and the late aquaculture stage) in two typical marine aquaculture areas(Mahegang River and Dingzi Bay) surrounding the Yellow Sea.Fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines were commonly used antibiotics in the aquaculture of these areas with high detection frequencies (17%to 83%).Compared among four aquaculture stages,the highest concentration of antibiotics (9032.08 ng/L) in aquaculture ponds was detected at the late aquaculture stage.And the antibiotic pollution level of natural water was directly related to the aquaculture stages.Similarly,at the aquaculture stages,the detection frequency of antibiotics in sediments was higher than that at the non-aquaculture stage.Based on the correlation analysis,the concentration of main antibiotics in water showed a positive correlation with total nitrogen (pRisk assessment,with the development of aquaculture stages,the selection pressure of fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines on resistant bacteria had increased.And the ecological risks caused by sulfonamides and tetracyclines to aquatic organisms had also increased markedly.Overall,this study may provide a reference for formulating regulatory policies regarding antibiotic use at different aquaculture stages.

关键词： Antibiotics Aquaculture stages Correlation analysis Risk assessment

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Risk assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

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China Ocean Engineering 2024年第2期38卷 210-220页

作者： MENG Wen-bo FU Guang-ming HUANG Yi LIU Shu-jie HUANG Liang GAOYong-hai CNOOC China Limited Zhanjiang BranchZhanjiang 524057China Key Laboratory of Unconventional Oil and Gas Development Ministry of Education(China University of Petroleum(East China))Qingdao 266580China

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.

关键词： subsea horizontal X-tree Risk assessment fuzzy fault tree modular risk evaluation model

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Risk assessment and analysis of Traditional Chinese Medicine intervention in coronavirus disease

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Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2022年第3期42卷 472-478页

作者： ZHAO Yufeng PANG Huaxin LüLanting ZHOU Pei WANG Kaining CAI Shengxing ZHANG Huifeng LI Kun Data Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine China Academy of Chinese Medical SciencesBeijing 100700China School of Computer and Information Technology Beijing Jiaotong UniversityBejing 100044China School of Public Administration and Policy Renmin University of ChinaBejing 100872China Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine China Academy of Chinese Medical SciencesBeijing 100700China Vice President China Academy of Chinese Medical SciencesBeijing 100700China

OBJECTIVE:To explore the advantages of Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM)in"prevention"and"control"of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.METHODS:In this paper,we wish to estimate the effect on the virus transmission of scenarios assuming TCM were used to build the first defense line at the very early stage of the spread in Wuhan.We therefore first developed a classic susceptible infected removed(susceptible infected removed,SIR)transmission model based on the national data in China and then updated it to a TCM-SIR model to assess the potential impact of such assumptions,i.***.the underlying risk of lives lost and social economy loss.RESULTS:(a)With the nationwide community lockdown,the risk value was from 90000 to 250000 without TCM intervention and the risk value was from 70000 to 220000 with TCM intervention;(b)Based the Risk assessment method,we forecasted that the infections peak would be 58016 without TCM intervention,which happened on February 172020.However,the infections peak would be 45713 with TCM intervention,which happened on 16 February 2020.CONCLUSIONS:The adoption of nationwide community lockdown is conducive to timely control the epidemic and protect people’s lives and safety.At the same time,we can get lower infections if TCM intervention can be considered.We can also get the benefits from TCM prevention of COVID-19 pandemic by the basic number of infections.

关键词： COVID-19 medicine,Chinese traditional Risk assessment public health

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A comprehensive multi‐hazard Risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2023年第1期4卷 43-51页

作者： Changkun Chen Dongyue Zhao Fan He Fenglin Sun Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology Central South UniversityChangsha 410075China Anhui University of Science and Technology Huainan 232001China

To assist the Department of Emergency Management in understanding the overall risk characteristics and situation of an urban agglomeration for a reasonable risk prevention and control strategy,this study developed a comprehensive multi-hazard Risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors.The proposed model includes disaster probability and disaster loss sub-models.The model evaluated four types of disaster risk in urban agglomerations:natural disasters,accidental disasters,public health incidents,and social security incidents.In addition,a variety of factors were integrated into the model,including the socioeconomic foundation of urban agglomerations,the oligopoly effect of core cities,historical disaster losses,the effect of disaster chains,the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation,and intercity coordinated rescue capabilities.Finally,the Risk assessment model was applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.The assessment results were compared to the distribution of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the target urban agglomeration.The results showed that after analyzing the risk characteristics and evaluating the risk levels,the model not only showed the comprehensive risk levels and distribution of urban agglomerations but also revealed the high-risk areas and the key points of risk prevention and control.More importantly,the results obtained through the model can facilitate the strategic planning of disaster prevention and mitigation for urban agglomerations.

关键词： Urban agglomeration Risk assessment Multi-hazard Multifactor risk prevention and control

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Risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines hot work based on AHP-FCE

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Petroleum 2023年第1期9卷 94-100页

作者： San He Huilan Xu Jianxiong Zhang Peiqiang Xue Southwest Petroleum University Chengdu610500China Sinopec Southwest Oil&Gas Company Chengdu610095China PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company Shunan Gas Mine Luzhou64600China PetroChina Qinghai Oilfield Downhole Operation Company Haixi Mongolian and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture816100QinghaiChina

A new quantitative Risk assessment method for hot work is proposed based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE).It can help pipeline companies realize the risk management of hot work and further ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines.Taking one natural gas pipeline in China as an example,this paper evaluates the risk of a single hot work in the spring of one natural gas pipeline in a high consequence region.First of all,the risk factors are determined with reference to the job safety analysis(JSA),and then experts were invited to fill out a questionnaire to collect their opinions.According to the results of the questionnaire,AHP is used to calculate the weight coefficients of the evaluation indicators,and FCE is used to evaluate the risk level of hot work.After calculation,the comprehensive risk score of hot work is 40.888.It belongs to a"general risk".This method can not only quantitatively evaluate the risk levels of hot work,but also reasonably sort the importance of various risk factors.It is helpful for the effective management of hot work and provides suggestions for implementing control measures.

关键词： Oil and gas pipelines Hot work Risk assessment Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)

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Risk assessment and identification of factors influencing the historical concentrations of microcystin in Lake Taihu, China

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2023年第5期127卷 1-14页

作者： Chen Cheng Alan D.Steinman Kaiye Zhang Qi Lin Qingju Xue Xing Wang Liqiang Xie State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment Nanjing Institute of Geography and LimnologyChinese Academy of SciencesNanjing 210008China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Annis Water Resources Institute Grand Valley State University740 West Shoreline DriveMuskegonMIUSA National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration Chinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijing 100012China State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Drinking Water Source Protection Chinese Research Academy of Environmental SciencesBeijing 100012China

Understanding the history of microcystins(MCs)pollution in large lakes can help inform future lake management.We collected sediment cores from Lake Taihu to:investigate the long-term record of MCs(MC-LR,MC-YR,and MC-RR),explore the main environmental drivers of MCs,and assess their public health and ecological risks.Results showed that MCs content in all cores increased over time.The core from north Taihu had the highest MC concentrations,with an average total MCs(sum of MC-LR,MC-YR,and MC-RR=TMCs)content of(74.31±328.55)ng/g.The core from eastern Taihu showed the lowest average TMCs content of(2.91±3.95)ng/g.PCA showed that sediment MCs at the three sites were positively correlated with sediment chlorophyll-a.MC-LR and MC-YR in northern and western Taihu negatively correlated with both the sediment total organic carbon/sediment total nitrogen ratio(STOC/STN)andwater nitrate(NO_(3)^(−)-N)concentration,but three MC congeners at eastern Taihu showed positive correlations with water orthophosphate(PO_(4)^(3−)-P),NO_(3)^(−)-N,and STOC/STN.Generalized additive model analysis at each site revealed that NO_(3)^(−)-N was the main TMCs driver in northern andwestern Taihuwhere phytoplankton dominated,whereasPO_(4)^(3−)-P was the main TMCs driver in eastern Taihu where macrophytes dominated.At the whole lake scale,total phosphorus(TP)andPO_(4)^(3−)-P were the most important environmental drivers influencing MCs;TP explained 47.4%,44.2%,and 47.6%while orthophosphate explained 34.8%,31.2%,and 34.7%of the deviance on TMCs,MC-LR,and MC-YR,respectively.NO_(3)^(−)-N also showed a strong effect on MCs variation,especially on MC-YR.risk assess-ment showed that both ecological and public health risk has increased in recent years.We conclude that while control of phosphorus and nitrogen input should be a major focus for future lake management,lake zone-specificmanagement strategiesmay also be important.

关键词： Microcystins Pollution history Orthophosphate Nitrate Risk assessment Lake Taihu

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Interaction-Aware Cut-In Trajectory Prediction and Risk assessment in Mixed Traffic

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IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 2022年第10期9卷 1752-1762页

作者： Xianglei Zhu Wen Hu Zejian Deng Jinwei Zhang Fengqing Hu Rui Zhou Keqiu Li Fei-Yue Wang the College of Intelligence and Computing Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300350 the China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co.Ltd. Tianjin 300300China the State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and Manufacturing for Vehicle Body College of Mechanical and Vehicle EngineeringHunan UniversityChangsha 410082China the Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering University of WaterlooWaterlooON N2L3G1Canada the School of Mechanical Engineering Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China the Macao University of Science and Technology MacaoChina the Waytous Inc. Qingdao 266000China IEEE the State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Accurately predicting the trajectories of surrounding vehicles and assessing the collision risks are essential to avoid side and rear-end collisions caused by cut-in.To improve the safety of autonomous vehicles in the mixed traffic,this study proposes a cut-in prediction and Risk assessment method with considering the interactions of multiple traffic participants.The integration of the support vector machine and Gaussian mixture model(SVM-GMM)is developed to simultaneously predict cut-in behavior and trajectory.The dimension of the input features is reduced through Chebyshev fitting to improve the training efficiency as well as the online inference performance.Based on the predicted trajectory of the cut-in vehicle and the responsive actions of the autonomous vehicles,two risk measurements are introduced to formulate the comprehensive interaction risk through the combination of Sigmoid function and Softmax function.Finally,the comparative analysis is performed to validate the proposed method using the naturalistic driving data.The results show that the proposed method can predict the trajectory with higher precision and effectively evaluate the risk level of a cut-in maneuver compared to the methods without considering interaction.

关键词： Cut-in behavior interaction-aware mixed traffic Risk assessment trajectory prediction

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Risk assessment of hazardous materials transportation:A review of research progress in the last thirty years

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Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition) 2022年第4期9卷 571-590页

作者： Jian Guo Cheng Luo College of Civil Engineering Zhejiang University of TechnologyHangzhou 310023China School of Civil Engineering Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengdu 610031China

In recent years,hazardous materials transportation accidents occur frequently,causing huge casualties and property losses.Risk assessment of hazardous materials transportation has been constantly investigated by researchers and decision-makers.In order to study the research progress of Risk assessment of hazardous materials transportation,so as to better reveal relevant problems.This review systematically analyzes the existing literature,from 1991 to 2020,on Risk assessment models and methods of hazardous materials transportation,and segregates the relevant studies based on unimodal and intermodal transportation systems.Additionally,an example is considered to analyze the characteristics of each Risk assessment model of unimodal transportation,and a novel detailed classification is proposed for the Risk assessment problems.The results indicate that the research on the Risk assessment model of road transportation of hazardous materials is comprehensive,whereas that based on the railway and intermodal transportations is deficient.In comparison with the traditional Risk assessment model,the conditional value-at-risk model presents a flexible decision-making framework for decision-makers and controls risk preference between risk neutrality and risk aversion.Owing to the difficulty in achieving door-to-door railway transportation and the increased risks associated with the intermodal transportation,the conclusion that the risk of railway and multimodal transportation of hazardous materials is lower than that of road transportation is not universal.Transport operators and governments can combine the advantages of different transportation modes,such as low risk,low cost,high flexibility,and high reliability,to achieve public safety and improve the competence of the system.Based on the proposed classification,this review identifies the existing trends and research gaps and summarizes future research directions.

关键词： Transportation Hazardous materials Risk assessment Transportation modes risk model

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