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A ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Ag-riculture in Dosso and Maradi Regions of Niger Republic

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Agricultural Sciences 2015年第7期6卷 724-733页

作者： Garba Hima Mamane Bello Maman Nafiou Malam Maman Department of Economics University of Abdou Moumouni Niamey Niger

The impact of climate variability on Maradi and Dosso agriculture was estimated taking into account farmer adaptations. The study used a ricardian analysis of 200 farms to explore the effects of climate variability on net revenue. It also simulates the impact of different climate scenarios on agriculture incomes. This analysis bespeaks that if temperature increases 1°C annually, the annual crop net revenues for both frameworks will decrease up to 582170.7 FCFA2 for model without adaptation (M1) and up to 1316 FCFA for model with adaptation (M2). An increase of Precipitation of 1 mm/month will increase crop receipts for the frameworks up to 721,917 FCFA for M1 and 1,861,455 FCFA for M2. In order to predict climate change impacts for these regions, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of IPCC scenarios were examined. The crop net receipts will fall between 10% and 26% if the scenarios happen. Another finding of this study is that each farmer who is practicing adaptation is able to cover the potential loss from climate variability up to 8.95% and 12.71% per ha respectively in Maradi and in Dosso. The study proposes that these regions should start planning measures for unexpected event of climate conditions. Irrigated systems need to be encouraged in order to minimize the vulnerability of the agricultural sector.

关键词： Agriculture Maradi Dosso Niger Republic ricardian Analysis

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Analysis of determinants of gross margin income generated through fishing activity to rural households around Lake Ziway and Langano in Ethiopia

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Agricultural Sciences 2013年第11期4卷 595-607页

作者： Dawit Garoma Asefa Admassie Gezahegn Ayele Fekadu Beyene Collage of Agriculture School of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business Haramaya University Dire Dawa Ethiopia IFPRI Ethiopian Economics Association Addis Ababa Ethiopia USAID Addis Ababa Ethiopia

This article analyzed determinants of gross margin income from fishing to the rural households around Lake Ziway and Langano in Ethiopia. Four districts adjacent to the two lakes were selected purposively from which 179 respondents drawn randomly. Both primary and secondary information comprises of household structure and assets, climate factors and supportive services were organized. Data analysis employed descriptive statistics, budgetary analysis and the ricardian method. Budgetary analysis showed positive fish gross margin income (GMI) of ETB 3,023.40 to average fisher. The ricardian analysis made use of the climate only model (Model 1) and comprehensive model (Model 2). Using Model 1, water level raise due to inflow is vital to earn fair income in addition to the rainfall amount in Season 1, which is supported with positive impact of precipitation water level interaction on fish income. Impact of precipitation was positive in Season 3, due to meher rainfall and withdrawal of fishing labor to join agriculture that minimized over fishing. Using Model 2, precipitation water level interaction has positive impact in Season 2 due to better inflow and Meher rainfall. The interaction term was negative in Season 4 attributed to decreased water level, dry weather and less precipitation. The result also showed positive impact of household members participation, participation in the traditional financial arrangement and capacity to finance operating costs. The study highlights problems facing fishing business like: decreased lake size and water volume, lake turbidity and siltation, open access and weak institutional arrangement to guide fishing efforts, wetland farming and expansion of irrigation to the lake side, cost of fishing materials, minimum sales price as well as poor access to the fish market. Hence, strengthening fishery coperatives, awareness creation, off-farm opportunities, integrated conservation works, reduced wetland farming and acquaintance to social netwo

关键词： Lake Ziway Lake Langano Fishing Household Gross Margin ricardian Technique Ethiopia

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