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regional rainfall damage functions to Estimate Direct Economic Losses in Rainstorms: A Case Study of the 2016 Extreme rainfall Event in Hebei Province of China

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE 2024年第4期15卷 508-520页

作者： Chen, Xiaojuan Xu, Yifu Li, Ting Wei, Jun Wu, Jidong China Meteorol Adm Xiongan Atmospher Boundary Layer Key Lab Xiongan New Area 071800 Peoples R China Key Lab Meteorol & Ecol Environm Hebei Prov Shijiazhuang 050021 Peoples R China Meteorol Disaster Prevent & Environm Meteorol Ctr Shijiazhuang 050021 Peoples R China Beijing Normal Univ Zhuhai Joint Int Res Lab Catastrophe Simulat & Syst Risk Zhuhai 519087 Peoples R China

Developing a regional damage function to quickly estimate direct economic losses (DELs) caused by heavy rain and floods is crucial for providing scientific supports in effective disaster response and risk reduction. This study investigated the factors that influence regional rainfall-induced damage and developed a calibrated regional rainfall damage function (RDF) using data from the 2016 extreme rainfall event in Hebei Province, China. The analysis revealed that total precipitation, asset value exposure, per capita GDP, and historical geological disaster density at both the township and county levels significantly affect regional rainfall-induced damage. The coefficients of the calibrated RDF indicate that doubling the values of these factors leads to varying increases or decreases in rainfall-induced damage. Furthermore, the study demonstrated a spatial scale dependency in the coefficients of the RDF, with increased elasticity values for asset value exposure and per capita GDP at the county level compared to the township level. The findings emphasize the challenges of applying RDFs across multiple scales and highlight the importance of considering socioeconomic factors in assessing rainfall-induced damage. Despite the limitations and uncertainties of the RDF developed, this study contributes to our understanding of the relationship between physical and socioeconomic factors and rainfall-induced damage. Future research should prioritize enhancing exposure estimation and calibrating RDFs for various types of rainfall-induced disasters to improve model accuracy and performance. The study also acknowledges the variation in RDF performance across different physical environments, especially concerning geological disasters and slope stability.

关键词： regional rainfall damage function Loss attribution Direct economic losses rainfall intensity Asset value Vulnerability ASSET VALUE FLOOD IMPACT MODEL

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