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Impacts of global warming on southern California's winegrape climate suitability

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Advances in climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 279-293页

作者： Corrie MONTE VERDE Fernando DE SALES Geography Department San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA Center for climate and Sustainability Studies San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA

Southern California has seen a resurgence of winegrowing regions in the past few decades,however the future of winegrape climatic suitability in the area has not been exhaustively explored.This study evaluated the future climate suitability for the cultivation of winegrape and potential global warming impacts on southern California's winegrowing regions through a series of high-resolution surface air temperature and precipitation projections obtained with the WRF-SSIB regional climate model.Results reveal that by mid-21st-century the surface air temperature will increase by approximately 1.2℃,while average precipitation will decrease by as much as 11%in the southern winegrowing areas under the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario.Evaluation of bioclimatic suitability indices indicate increases in heat accumulation for all major winegrowing areas;including an increase of about 10% in growing-degree day,while morning low temperatures in September may experience increases of approximately 11% in the future,thus impacting negatively the ripening stage of grapevines and leading to changes in wine composition and quality.Additionally,the extent of areas classified under the cool to warm climate suitability categories could decrease by nearly 42% in the study area by 2050.Conditions in southern California are already warm and dry for viticulture and continuing heat accumulation increase,along with rainfall reduction,could potentially place additional stress to winegrape crop in the area,including advanced phenological timing and moisture deficit stress that could lead to decreases in yield.The projected decline in viticulture suitability highlights the need for adaptive capacity within this sector to mitigate the impacts of global warming.Possible mitigating strategies include planting hotter climate grape varieties,moving vineyards to regions that are more suitable in the future,and adopting dry-farming techniques.

关键词： Global warming Winegrape suitability Regional climate modeling Bioclimatic indices Dynamical downscaling

Characteristics of Anthropogenic Sulfate and Carbonaceous Aerosols over East Asia: regional modeling and Observation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第6期25卷 946-959页

作者： Yan HUANG William L. CHAMEIDES Qian TAN Robert E. DICKINSON School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta GA 30332 Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences Duke University Durham NC 27708 Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center University of Maryland Baltimore MD 21228

The authors present spatial and temporal characteristics of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over East Asia using a 3-D coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model, and compare the simulation with the limited aerosol observations over the region. The aerosol module consists of SO2, SO4^2-, hydrophobic and hydrophilic black carbon （BC） and organic carbon compounds （OC）, including emission, advections, dry and wet deposition, and chemical production and conversion. The simulated patterns of SO2 are closely tied to its emission rate, with sharp gradients between the highly polluted regions and more rural areas. Chemical conversion （especially in the aqueous phase） and dry deposition remove 60% and 30% of the total SO2 emission, respectively. The SO4^2- shows less horizontal gradient and seasonality than SO2, with wet deposition （60%） and export （27%） being two major sinks. Carbonaceous aerosols are spatially smoother than sulfur species. The aging process transforms more than 80% of hydrophobic BC and OC to hydrophilic components, which are removed by wet deposition （60%） and export （30%）. The simulated spatial and seasonal SO4^2-, BC and OC aerosol concentrations and total aerosol optical depth are generally consistent with the observations in rural areas over East Asia, with lower bias in simulated OC aerosols, likely due to the underestimation of anthropogenic OC emissions and missing treatment of secondary organic carbon. The results suggest that our model is a useful tool for characterizing the anthropogenic aerosol cycle and for assessing its potential climatic and environmental effects in future studies.

关键词： Regional climate modeling anthropogenic emission sulfate aerosol black carbon and organic carbon East Asia

Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cooling upon the Late Spring Drought in East Asia Simulated by a regional climate Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第4期25卷 555-562页

作者：辛晓歌 Zhaoxin LI 宇如聪周天军 State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 Laboratoire de Mdteorologie Dynamique IPSL/CNRS Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris France National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081

Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades.

关键词： Southeast China spring drought inter-decadal variability Regional climate modeling

Atmospheric feedbacks on Arctic summer sea-ice anomalies in ensemble simulations of a coupled regional climate model

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Advances in Polar Science 2018年第3期29卷 156-164页

作者： Annette RINKE Dorthe HANDORF Wolfgang DORN Klaus DETHLOFF John C.MOORE Xiangdong ZHANG Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Potsdam 14473 Germany College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Alaska 99775 USA

Ensemble simulations with the Arctic coupled regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM have been analyzed to investigate atmospheric feedbacks to September sea-ice anomalies in the Arctic in autumn and the following winter. Different ＂low- minus high ice＂ composites have been calculated using selected model runs and different periods. This approach allows us to investigate the robustness of the simulated regional atmospheric feedbacks to detected sea-ice anomalies. Since the position and strength of the September sea-ice anomaly varies between the different ＂low- minus high ice＂ composites, the related simulated atmospheric patterns in autumn differ depending on the specific surface heat flux forcing through the oceaaa-atmosphere interface. However, irrespective of those autumn differences, the regional atmospheric feedback in the following winter is rather insensitive to the applied compositing. Neither the selection of simulations nor the considered period impacts the results. The simulated consistent large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern show-s a wave-like pattern with positive pressure anomaly over the region of the Barents/Kara Seas and Scandinavia/western Russia （＂Scandinavian-Ural blocking＂） and negative pressure anomaly over the East Siberian/Laptev Seas.

关键词： Arctic climate atmosphere-sea ice feedback Regional climate modeling Arctic atmosphere

Assessment of the 2006-2012 Climatological Fields and Mesoscale Features from regional Downscaling of CESM Data by WRF-Chem over Southeast Alaska

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Atmospheric and climate Sciences 2014年第4期4卷 589-613页

作者： Nicole Molders Cindy L.Bruyère Scott Gende Michael A.Pirhalla Geophysical Institute Department of Atmospheric SciencesCollege of Natural Science and MathematicsUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksUSA National Center for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Environmental Sciences and Management North-West UniversityVanderbijlparkSouth Africa National Park Service Glacier Bay Field StationJuneauUSA

This case study examined how well downscaling of Community Earth System Model (CESM) data can reproduce climatological conditions relevant for summer (JJA) air quality in Glacier Bay National Park. Climatology was determined from the meteorological results obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model inline coupled with chemistry (WRF-chem) when driven with CESM data of 2006-2012. The climatology of this experiment (EXP) was evaluated by climatology from gridded blended sea-wind speeds, CRU data, and 42 surface meteorology sites. The quality relative to known performance was assessed by comparison to climatology determined from WRF-chem control simulations driven with FNL analysis data (CON) in forecast mode. Compared to observations, the thermodynamic and dynamic performances of EXP showed similar shortcomings (dampened diurnal temperature range, overestimation of wind speed over land) as CON. Over water EXP wind-speed climatology JJA bias (simulated minus observed) was -0.7 m/s. With respect to the CRU data EXP biases in JJA 2m temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity and accumulated precipitation were -1.1 K, -4.9 K, 13%, and 110 mm, respectively. The slightly warmer atmosphere in EXP compensated for deficiencies in the cloud schemes leading to better results for the number of wet days and accumulated precipitation than in CON. Downscaling captured known mesoscale responses important for regional climate in a similar way as CON. When using CESM forcing, lateral boundary effects expanded spatially farther into the domain than known for forcing by analysis data. Overall, climatologies obtained from downscaling for Southeast Alaska had similar skill than those derived from forecasts driven by analysis data.

关键词： Evaluation Regional climate modeling Downscaling Southeast Alaska WRF-Chem CESM

Dynamical Donwscaling for Railroad Areas in Eastern Amazon and Southeastern Brazil:Current climate and Near-Future Projections

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Atmospheric and climate Sciences 2014年第2期4卷 155-163页

作者： Everaldo B.De Souza Bergson C.de Moraes Douglas B.S.Ferreira Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho Instituto Tecnológico VALE—ITV Grupo de Pesquisa sobre Mudancas do ClimaBelémBrazil

We performed a dynamic downscaling using REGCM4 regional model driven by MPI global model for current (1990/2012) and near-future (2015/2039) climate in order to characterize the seasonal rainfall regimes throughout the railroad areas in eastern Amazon and southeastern Brazil. The analysis of observational data for the current climate indicated the existence of pronounced spatial variations in rainfall regime across railroad regions during both the rainy and dry seasons. Although models have presented generalized underestimation, the regional model showed improvements on spatial representation and intensity of the rainfall in comparison with global model results. We reported the future projections taking into account the correction of simulated rainfall by the values of the biases found in each respective seasonal regime, so that the results are expressed by percentage changes of the future (2015/2037) relative to the current climate patterns. For the railroad in eastern Amazon, projections indicate a weak decrease of rainfall of about -15% in the rainy season (January to May), however during the dry season (June to October) are expected drastic reductions between -70% and -90% in south (Carajás in Pará state) and north (Sao Luis in Maranhao state) portions. Conversely, for the railroad in southeast Brazil, model projections point out for an increased rainfall regime during the rainy season (October to February) around +30% to +40% in the east part of the region over the Espírito Santo state.

关键词： Regional climate modeling Rainy and Dry Seasons climate Change Brazil climate REGCM4