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Economic and Human Loss Empirical Models for Earthquakes in the Mediterranean Region, with Particular Focus on Algeria

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第4期8卷 415-434页

作者： Abdelheq Guettiche Philippe Guguen Mostefa Mimoune Centre Universitaire Abdelhafid Boussouf Civil Engineering Department Universitdes Frères Mentouri Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre) Universitde Grenoble Alpes/CNRSIFSTTAR

In this study, loss estimation models were developed for reasonably accurate assessment of economic and human losses from seismic events in the Mediterranean region, based on damage assessment at an urban *** were compiled from existing worldwide databases,and completed with earthquake information from regional studies. Economic data were converted to a single common currency unit(2015 USD value) and the wealth of the areas affected by 65 earthquakes of the region from 1900 to 2015 was assessed. reduced-form models were used to determine economic and human losses, with earthquake magnitude and intensity as hazard-related variables, and gross domestic product of the affected area and the affected population as exposure-related variables. Damage to buildings was also used as a hazard-related variable to predict economic and human losses. Finally, site-specific regression models were proposed for economic and human losses due to earthquakes in the Mediterranean region, and more specifically, in Algeria. We show that by introducing the damage variable into the models, prediction error can be reduced, and that accuracy of loss model estimation is site dependent and requires regional data on earthquake losses to improve. A case study for Constantine, Algeria shows the improvements needed for increased accuracy.

关键词： Algeria Earthquake loss estimation Mediterranean region reduced-form models Seismic intensity Seismic magnitude

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