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recursive zero-covid model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province

Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第1期8卷 11-26页

作者： Xinmiao Rong Huidi Chu Liu Yang Shaosi Tan Chao Yang Pei Yuan Yi Tan Linhua Zhou Yawen Liu Qing Zhen Shishen Wang Meng Fan Huaiping Zhu Harbin Engineering University Harbin150001China Northeast Normal University Changchun130024China York University TorontoCanada Jilin University Changchun130021China Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention Changchun130033China Changchun University of Science and Technology Changchun130013China

Since the beginning of March 2022,the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin *** figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the zero-covid policy in the province,we constructed a recursive zero-covid model quantifying the strength of the control measures,and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of *** estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and *** recursive zero-covid model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17,respectively,which are consistent with the real *** results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the *** is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the *** addition,the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.

关键词： Omicron variant recursive zero-covid model Elimination of cases at the community level Basic reproduction number Control reproduction number Quantitation of control efforts

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