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Coulomb stress changes due to the 2021 MS7.4 Maduo Earthquake and expected seismicity rate changes in the surroundings

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第4期65卷 675-686页

作者： Yashan FENG Xiong XIONG Bin SHAN Chengli LIU School of Geophysics and Geomatics China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

On May 22 nd,2021,an MS7.4 earthquake occurred near the Maduo county of the Qinghai Province,China,within the Bayan Har *** activities have been intense in this block,thus whether the Maduo Earthquake will bring subsequent seismic hazards to its surrounding regions raises wide *** this paper,we first calculated the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Maduo Earthquake on nearby faults,and estimated how much these faults are brought closer or further from their next failures based on their stressing ***,we combined the Coulomb failure stress changes with the rate-state frictional law to estimate the seismicity rate in the study region in the next decade.A declustered catalogue before the Maduo Earthquake was adopted to calculate background seismicity rate,and rate-state parameters are constrained by fault slip *** results show that the Maduo Earthquake increases stress accumulations in the northwestern portion of the Qingshuihe fault(0.02 MPa at maximum),the two ends of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault(0.01 MPa at maximum),and the northwestern portion of the Maduo-Gande fault(on average~0.09 MPa),and seismicity rates are expected to increase near these *** is especially worth noting is the seismic hazard in the region extending from the eastern end of the Kunlun Mountain Pass-Jiangcuo fault to the Maqin-Maqu seismic gap on the Eastern Kunlun fault,which is calculated to have experienced a maximum stress increase of 0.67 MPa after the Maduo *** the other hand,stress accumulations are reduced in the southern end of the Elashan fault,the Eastern Kunlun fault segment to the west of Maduo,and the northwestern portion of the Dari *** hazards are expected to be low in these *** the study region as a whole,the probability of an M≥6 earthquake taking place in the next decade is estimated to be 59%,about twice the value calculated for the time period before the Maduo Earthquake.

关键词： Maduo Earthquake Coulomb stress change Fault slip rate Seismicity rate rate-state frictional law

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