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Levant Drought Occurrence, Lebanon Case

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2024年第1期14卷 118-127页

作者： Ihab Jomaa Mariam Choker Nisrine El Haj Marie Therese Abi Saab Matteo Funaro Simone Mereu Department of Irrigation and AgroMeteorology (DIAM) of the Lebanese Agriculture Research Institute (LARI) Tal Amara Lebanon Climate and Water Unit Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute Fanar Lebanon CMCC—Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici IAFES Division Sassari Italy

rainfall data is probably one of the longest-recorded climatic parameters in Lebanon. On the central coast of Lebanon, the Beirut weather station started collecting rainfall data in 1876. However, the recorded data is not available at one data provider source. Published data is found in historical documents but it reaches the early 1970s and then appears a data gap till 1990. Still the data is available, but it might be found to be saved privately. This study investigated the SPI variability on annual time scale between the years 1876 and 2021. The SPI was computed using R-Stat software to compare every year between 1876 and 2021. The majority (about 70% of the years) of the years are near normal in the precipitation rate. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) demonstrated a normal distribution of years. Dry and wet years constitute about 15% of the total 146 years (1876-2021). Extremely dry years might appear in two consecutive years between 50 to 60 years count. After 1991, there were no wet years it was only near normal and few dry years. The last 30 years showed a trend of increasing drought years without any occurrence of wet years. This study demonstrated the importance of keeping records of at least rainfall data and it must be recorded on a daily basis or intensity on time. It is highly important on a managerial basis and for water security reasons to understand the drought event occurrence and investigate the changes in rainfall rates. Climate change scenarios always forecast a decrease in rainfall rates which will not appear without such studies.

关键词： Climate Change Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Beirut rainfall gag-es

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