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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第3期31卷 525-531页

作者： LI Xiaofan SHEN Xinyong LIU Jia Department of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of the Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

ABSTRACT rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.

关键词： doubled carbon dioxide radiation latent heat condensation rainfall cloud-resolving model simulation

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

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Journal of Ocean University of China 2019年第3期18卷 626-632页

作者： ZHU Zhihui HUANG Fei XIE Xiao Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center Shanghai 201306 China Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China Ningbo Collaborative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere Ningbo University Ningbo 315211 China

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.

关键词： ASI summer extreme rainfall prediction

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1823-1834页

作者： Xinyu LI Riyu LU Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting Ministry of Natural ResourcesHohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

关键词： Yangtze River basin western North Pacific subtropical high rainfall interannual relationship decadal change

Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter rainfall over South China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第4期27卷 832-844页

作者：周连童 Chi-Yung TAM 周文 Johnny C. L. CHAN Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences CityU-IAP Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences City University of Hong Kong Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong Kong

The present study investigates the influence of South China Sea （SCS） SST and ENSO on winter （January-February-March; JFM） rainfall over South China and its dynamic processes by using station observations for the period 1951-2003, Met Office Hadley Center SST data for the period 1900-2008, and ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1958-2002. It is found that JFM rainfall over South China has a sig- nificant correlation with Nio-3 and SCS SST. Analyses show that in El Nio or positive SCS SST anomaly years, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea, which in turn transports more moisture into South China and favors increased rainfall. A partial regression analysis indicates that the independent ENSO influence on winter rainfall occurs mainly over South China, whereas SCS SST has a larger independent influence on winter rainfall in northern part of South China. The temperature over South China shows an obvious decrease at 300 hPa and an increase near the surface, with the former induced by Nio-3 and the latter SCS SST anomalies. This enhances the convective instability and weakens the potential vorticity （PV）, which explains the strengthening of ascending motion and the increase of JFM rainfall over South China.

关键词： ENSO South China Sea SST rainfall convective instability potential vorticity

rainfall variability in the Brazilian northeast biomes and their interactions with meteorological systems and ENSO via CHELSA product

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Big Earth Data 2019年第4期3卷 315-337页

作者： Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho JoséFrancisco De Oliveira-Júnior Dimas De Barros Santiago Paulo Miguel De Bodas Terassi Paulo Eduardo Teodoro Givanildo De Gois Claudio JoséCavalcante Blanco Pedro Henrique De Almeida Souza Micejane da Silva Costa Heliofábio Barros Gomes Paulo JoséDos Santos Institute of Atmospheric Sciences(ICAT) Federal University of Alagoas(UFAL)MaceióBrazil Postgraduate Program in Biosystems Engineering(PGEB) Federal Fluminense University(UFF)NiteróiBrazil Postgraduate Program in Meteorology Unidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas(UACA)Federal Universityof Campina Grande(UFCG)Campina GrandeBrazil Postgraduate Program in Physical Geography University of São Paulo(USP)São PauloBrazil Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul(UFMS) Chapadão do SulBrazil fSchool of Industrial Metallurgical Engineering of Volta Redonda Technological CenterUniversidade Federal Fluminense(UFF)Volta RedondaBrazil Faculty of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering(FAESA/ITEC) Federal University of Pará(UFPA)BelémBrazil

Brazilian biomes are home to a significant portion of the world’s biodiversity,with a total of 14%of existing species and still concentrate 20%of the world’s water resources.However,changes in biomes have a direct impact on rainfall patterns and water recycling.Based on this,the objective was to evaluate the variability of rainfall in the four existing biomes in the Northeast Brazil(NEB)and their interaction with the ENSO climate variability mode and regional scale meteorological systems via CHELSA product.For this,monthly rainfall data were used from 1979 to 2013,with a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km of the CHELSA product,and seasonal and annual rainfall patterns were extracted via boxplot.It was found that the rainy season in the Amazon,Caatinga and Cerrado biomes occurred between January and April,with varying intensities,except for the Atlantic Forest.Such seasonality patterns are associated with the NEB meteorological systems,with emphasis on ITCZ(all Biomes),UTCV(Amazon,Caatinga and Cerrado),Frontal Systems(extreme south of Caatinga,Cerrado and Atlantic Forest)and EWD/TWD in the(Atlantic Forest).In the inter-annual scale,the remarkable influence of ENSO was verified,mainly in the years 1983,1985,1989,1993,1998,2009 and 2012.It is noteworthy that 1985 was the wettest year of the period,with a surplus in all biomes,while the driest year differs between the Amazon(1983),Atlantic Forest and Caatinga(1993)and Cerrado(2012)biomes.The study via orbital product in NEB showed that anthropogenic processes and natural variability interfere with the forms of rain interception in the biomes and hence in rainfall patterns and water recycling in NEB.

关键词： Phytophysiognomy rainfall inter-annual variability water recycling climate change land use and occupation

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to rainfall Forecasting in Queensland,Australia

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2012年第4期29卷 717-730页

作者： John ABBOT Jennifer MAROHASY Centre for Plant and Water Science Central Queensland UniversityBruce Highway Rockhampton Q.4702Australia

In this study, the application of artificial intelligence to monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasting in Queensland, Australia, was assessed by inputting recognized climate indices, monthly historical rainfall data, and atmospheric temperatures into a prototype stand-alone, dynamic, recurrent, time-delay, artificial neural network. Outputs, as monthly rainfall forecasts 3 months in advance for the period 1993 to 2009, were compared with observed rainfall data using time-series plots, root mean squared error （RMSE）, and Pearson correlation coefficients. A comparison of RMSE values with forecasts generated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology＇s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia （POAMA）-I.5 general circulation model （GCM） indicated that the prototype achieved a lower RMSE for 16 of the 17 sites compared. The application of artificial neural networks to rainfall forecasting was reviewed. The prototype design is considered preliminary, with potential for significant improvement such as inclusion of output from GCMs and experimentation with other input attributes.

关键词： general circulation models artificial neural networks rainfall forecast

Evaluating the suitability of TRMM satellite rainfall data for hydrological simulation using a distributed hydrological model in the Weihe River catchment in China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015年第2期25卷 177-195页

作者： ZHAO Haigen State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University and the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100875 China Research Center for Remote Sensing and GIS Beijing Key Laboratory for Remote Sensing of Environment and Digital Cities School of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing100875 China South China Institute of Environmental Sciences MEP Guangzhou 510655 China

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate Tropical rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） data with rain gauge data and further to use this TRMM data to drive a Dis- tributed Time-Variant Gain Model （DTVGM） to perform hydrological simulations in the semi-humid Weihe River catchment in China. Before the simulations, a comparison with a 10-year （2001-2010） daily rain gauge data set reveals that, at daily time step, TRMM rainfall data are better at capturing rain occurrence and mean values than rainfall extremes. On a monthly time scale, good linear relationships between TRMM and rain gauge rainfall data are found, with determination coefficients R2 varying between 0.78 and 0.89 for the individual stations. Subsequent simulation results of seven years （2001-2007） of data on daily hydro- logical processes confirm that the DTVGM when calibrated by rain gauge data performs better than when calibrated by TRMM data, but the performance of the simulation driven by TRMM data is better than that driven by gauge data on a monthly time scale. The results thus suggest that TRMM rainfall data are more suitable for monthly streamfiow simulation in the study area, and that, when the effects of recalibration and the results for water balance components are also taken into account, the TRMM 3B42-V7 product has the potential to perform well in similar basins.

关键词： rainfall TRMM distributed hydrological model DTVGM hydrological simulation Weihe River catchment

Differences between Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Budgets in a Torrential rainfall Event

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第5期36卷 495-509页

作者： Yongjie HUANG Yaping WANG Xiaopeng CUI Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Differences in rainfall budgets between convective and stratiform regions of a torrential rainfall event were investigated using high-resolution simulation data produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The convective and stratiform regions were reasonably separated by the radar-based convective–stratiform partitioning method, and the threedimensional WRF-based precipitation equation combining water vapor and hydrometeor budgets was further used to analyze the rainfall budgets. The results showed that the magnitude of precipitation budget processes in the convective region was one order larger than that in the stratiform region. In convective/stratiform updraft regions, precipitation was mainly from the contribution of moisture-related processes, with a small negative contribution from cloud-related processes. In convective/stratiform downdraft regions, cloud-related processes played positive roles in precipitation, while moisture-related processes made a negative contribution. Moisture flux convergence played a dominant role in the moisture-related processes in convective or stratiform updraft regions, which was closely related to large-scale dynamics. Differences in cloud-related processes between convective and stratiform regions were more complex compared with those in moisture-related processes.Both liquid-and ice-phase microphysical processes were strong in convective/stratiform updraft regions, and ice-phase processes were dominant in convective/stratiform downdraft regions. There was strong net latent heating within almost the whole troposphere in updraft regions, especially in the convective updraft region, while the net latent heating(cooling) mainly existed above(below) the zero-layer in convective/stratiform downdraft regions.

关键词： convective rainfall stratiform rainfall precipitation budget updraft region downdraft region

Mechanism of colluvial landslide induction by rainfall and slope construction:A case study

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第4期18卷 1013-1033页

作者： ZHOU Zhou SHEN Jun-hui LI Ying DUAN Wei-feng YANG Ri-chang SHU Jun-cheng LI He-wei TAO Sheng-yu ZHENG Sheng-zhe State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection Chengdu University of TechnologyChengdu 610059China College of Environment-geology and Civil Engineering Chengdu-University of TechnologyChengdu 610059China Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited Hangzhou 310000China

The landslide hazards occurring in the complex geological genesis accumulation body are usually controlled by the coupling action of many internal and external factors.Therefore,this paper takes the dam-front Danbo accumulation body landslide of Yangfanggou hydropower station on the Yalong River as the geological prototype,and discusses the process and mechanism of slope stability degradation under the combined action of rainfall and slope construction.Based on the detailed understanding of the basic characteristics of the accumulation body,the development characteristics of the landslide and the construction situation of the slope engineering,the study conducted correlation analysis between rainfall and landslide displacement,the physical and mechanical tests of all types of rocksoil masses,and the numerical simulation testing of seepage field variation of the landslide section.It is found that the special slope structure and material composition of the old landslide accumulation layer on the upper part of the Danbo accumulation body are the internal factors for the occurrence of thrust loadinduced landslide,and the construction of the slope engineering not only creates free space conditions for sliding,but also provides channels for the infiltration of rainfall into the slope after confluence,which is an external factor that caused the mechanical properties of the sliding zone soil to gradually weaken from the trailing edge to the leading edge.The geomechanical model of such landslide is that the active section of the trailing edge produces the"source of force",the transition section of the middle section affects the occurrence of sliding,and the anti-sliding section of the leading edge controls the occurrence of landslide hazards.The results of this research provide not only a useful supplement to the theory of landslide formation mechanisms but also a scientific basis for guiding the prevention and control of similar hazards.

关键词： Colluvial landslide Slope construction rainfall Induction mechanism Weakening pattern Geomechanical model

Formation of low-level meso-scale southwest jet during seasonal rainfall

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2001年第4期11卷 34-41页

作者：赵平周秀骥 Beijing 100081 Beijing 100871 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Department of Geophysics Peking University

The meso-scale feature and energy budget of a low-level southwest jet were analyzed using the data collected during the heavy rainfall events that occurred between July 20 - 27, 1998 over the basin of the Changjiang. And the dynamic mechanism for the formation and maintenance of the meso-scale low-level jet under the condition of the low-level heterogeneous large-scale south wind was investigated using a shallow water model. The results can explain the mechanism of the formation of the meso-scale jet in this event and the importance of the heterogeneous large-scale horizontal motion in the formation of the meso-scale jet.

关键词： rainfall meso-scale low-level jet energy budget shallow water model.