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quantitative estimates of climate since the Last Deglaciation from Pollen in Northwest Yunnan,SW China

Quantitative Estimates of Climate since the Last Deglaciatio...

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中国古生物学会孢粉学分会十届二次学术年会

作者： Caiming Shen Bin Yin Hongwei Meng Linpei Huang Qifa Sun Qian Zheng Hucai Zhang Lingyu Tang Chunhai Li Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographical Processes and Environmental Changes College of Tourism and Geographical SciencesYunnan Normal University Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences

A modern pollen dataset used in this study consists of 75 surface samples from ponds,lakes,and reservoirs in Northwest Yunnan,Southwest *** data for each site,including monthly,seasonal and dry/rainy seasonal,as well as mean annual temperature and precipitation,were derived from observational data（1961-2010） of 20 meteorological stations in this region using linear interpolation *** correspondence analysis（CCA） was used to reveal the climatic parameters that best reflect the main patterns of variation in this modern pollen dataset,and to detect anomalous *** of CCA indicate that mean annual precipitation（MAP）,precipitation in dry season（November-April）（Pds）,and January temperature（Tjan） are three climatic parameters controlling the variation of this modern pollen dataset in Northwest ***–climate transfer functions for MAP,Pds and Tjan were developed using the weighted-averaging partial least squares（WA-PLS） regression *** to the performance of WA-PLS regression models,3-component WA-PLS models were selected respectively for these three climatic parameters with low RMSEP（the root mean square error of prediction）,low maximum bias,and high coefficient of determination（r2） between observed and predicted values（RMSEP=48.7,17.9 mm,and 1.0 ℃;Maximum Bias=79.8,37.1 mm,and 1.6 ℃;r2=0.6,0.6,and 0.74 for MAP,Pds and Tjan,respectively）.Transfer functions for MAP,Pds and Tjan were then applied to a fossil pollen record from Lugu Lake in Northwest Yunnan to reconstruct paleoclimate in the catchment of this *** estimates of paleoclimate show that MAP and Pds fluctuated around 1000 and 110 mm（their present values）,but Tjan is 0.8-4.3 ℃ lower than the present（5 ℃） during 15000-12800 a BP（cal.a BP）.From 12800 to 11500 a BP,MAP and Pds were ca.50 and 25 mm higher than the present,and Tjan increased to be the present *** climatic parameters at 11500-9100 a BP reached their maxima throughout the last d

关键词： quantitative estimates,climate Pollen,Transfer functions,Northwest Yunnan,Last deglaciation

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