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Forecast Method of Multimode System for Debris Flow Risk Assessment in qingping town,Sichuan Province,China

Journal of Mountain Science 2011年第4期8卷 592-602页

作者： KONG Jiming Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences

The Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12,2008 triggered large numbers of *** heavy rain on 13 August 2010 triggered debris flows with total volume of more than 6 million cubic meters and the debris flows destroyed 500 houses and infrastructure built after the Wenchuan *** study area qingping town was located in the northwestern part of the Sichuan Basin of China,which needs the second reconstructions and the critical evaluation of debris *** study takes basin as the study unit and defines collapse,landslide and debris flow hazard as a geo-hazard system.A multimode system composed of principal series system and secondary parallel system were established to evaluate the hazard grade of debris flow in 138 drainage basins of qingping *** evaluation result shows that 30.43% of study basins(42 basins) and 24.58% of study area,are in extremely high or high hazard grades,and both percentage of basin quantity and percentage of area in different hazard grades decrease with the increase of hazard *** to the geo-hazard data from the interpretation of unmanned plane image with a 0.5-m resolution and field investigation after the Wenchuan Earthquake and 8.13 Big Debris Flow,the ratio of landslides and collapses increased after the Wenchuan Earthquake and the ratios of extremely high or high hazard grades were more than moderate or low hazard grades obviously.23 geo-hazards after8.13 Big Debris Flow in qingping town region all occurred in basins with extremely high or high hazard grades,and 9 debris flows were in basins with extremely high hazard *** model of multimode system for critical evaluation could forecast not only the collapse and landslide but also the debris flow precisely when the basin was taken as the study unit.

关键词： Multimode System Risk assessment Debris flow Landslide Wenchuan Earthquake qingping town

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