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Bayesian network model to distinguish between intentional attacks and accidental technical failures:a case study of floodgates

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Cybersecurity 2021年第1期4卷 442-460页

作者： Sabarathinam Chockalingam Wolter Pieters AndréTeixeira Pieter van Gelder Faculty of Technology Policy and ManagementDelft University of TechnologyDelftThe Netherlands Department of Risk Safety and SecurityInstitute for Energy TechnologyHaldenNorway Behavioural Science Institute Radboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands Department of Electrical Engineering Uppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden

Water management infrastructures such as floodgates are critical and increasingly operated by Industrial Control Systems(ICS).These systems are becoming more connected to the internet,either directly or through the corporate *** makes them vulnerable to *** behaviour in floodgates operated by ICS could be caused by both(intentional)attacks and(accidental)technical *** operators notice abnormal behaviour,they should be able to distinguish between those two causes to take appropriate measures,because for example replacing a sensor in case of intentional incorrect sensor measurements would be ineffective and would not block corresponding the attack *** the previous work,we developed the attack-failure distinguisher framework for constructing Bayesian Network(BN)models to enable operators to distinguish between those two causes,including the knowledge elicitation method to construct the directed acyclic graph and conditional probability tables of BN *** a full case study of the attack-failure distinguisher framework,this paper presents a BN model constructed to distinguish between attacks and technical failures for the problem of incorrect sensor measurements in floodgates,addressing the problem of floodgate *** utilised experts who associate themselves with the safety and/or security community to construct the BN model and validate the qualitative part of constructed BN *** constructed BN model is usable in water management infrastructures to distinguish between intentional attacks and accidental technical failures in case of incorrect sensor *** could help to decide on appropriate response strategies and avoid further complications in case of incorrect sensor measurements.

关键词： Bayesian network DeMorgan model Intentional attack probability elicitation Safety Security Technical failure Water management

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