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probabilistic analysis OF GALERKIN-LIKE METHODS FOR THE FREDHOLM EQUATION OF THE SECOND KIND

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Journal of Computational Mathematics 1998年第5期16卷 445-456页

作者： Tian-zi Jiang (School of Mathematics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Austmlia National Laborutory of Pattern Recognition, Institute of Automation,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China) 中科院自动化所北京

This paper deals with the approximate solution of the Fredholm equation u TKu = f of the second kind from a probabilistic point of view. With Wiener typemeasures on the set of kernels and free terms we determine statistical features of the approximation process, i.e., the most likely rate of convergence and the dominating individual behavior. The analysis carried out for a kind of Galerkin-like method.

关键词： probabilistic analysis fredholm equation galerkin-like method abstract wiener space

probabilistic analysis for Seismic Stability of Beach Earth Embankment

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China Ocean Engineering 1995年第4期10卷 445-453页

作者： He Guangne Yang Bin Professor, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 Engineer, Design and Research Institute of Shanghai Harbour Engineering, Shanghai 200032

The current safety factor method for evaluating earth embankment stability is not very rational since the assessment of slope stability is really an uncertainty problem. In order to consider the random property of this problem, the probabilistic analysis is introduced herein. Finally, the stability of a real beach earth embankment is analysed by means of the suggested probabilitic approach. It may be seen that the results of analysis can represent the numerical assessment of the degree of seismic stability.

关键词： beach earth embankment seismic stability probabilistic analysis

probabilistic analysis on Connectivity for Sensor Grids with Unreliable Nodes

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences 2006年第6期11卷 1757-1760页

作者： WANG Gaocai LIN Chuang CHEN Jianer Graduate School of Shenzhen Tsinghua University Shenzhen 518055 Guangdong China Department of Computer Science and Technology Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China School of Information Science and Engineering Central South University Changsha 410083 Hunan China

This paper mainly investigates the connectivity of the unreliable sensor grid network. We consider an unreliable sensor grid network with mn nodes placed in a certain planar area A, and we assume that each node has independent failure probability p and has the same transmission range R. This paper presents a new method for calculating the connectivity probability of the network, which uses thorough mathematical methods to derive the relationship among the network connectivity probability, the probability that a node is ＂failed＂（not active）, the numbers of node, and the node＇s transmission range in unreliable sensor networks. Our approach is more useful and efficient for given problem and conditions. Such as the numerical calculating results indicate that, for a 100×100 size sensot network, if node failure probability is bounded 0.5%, even if the transmission range is small （such as R = 10）, we can still maintain very high connectivity probability （reach 95.8%）. On the other hand, the simulation results show that building high connectivity probability is entirely possible on unreliable sensor grid networks.

关键词： unreliable sensor grid connectivity probabilistic analysis

Field test and probabilistic analysis of irregular steel debris casualty risks from a person-borne improvised explosive device

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Defence Technology（防务技术） 2021年第6期17卷 1852-1863页

作者： Piotr W.Sielicki Mark G.Stewart Tomasz Gajewski MichałMalendowski Piotr Peksa Hasan Al-Rifaie Robert Studzinski Wojciech Sumelka Institute of Structural analysis Faculty of Civil and Transport EngineeringPoznan University of Technology5 Maria Skłodowska-Curie Square60-965PoznanPoland Institute of Building Engineering Faculty of Civil and Transport EngineeringPoznan University of Technology5 Maria Skłodowska-Curie Square60-965PoznanPoland Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability The University of NewcastleUniversity DriveCallaghanNSW2308Australia

Person-borne improvised explosive devices(PBIEDs)are often used in terrorist attacks in Western *** study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this *** explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour,including positions,velocity,and trajectory *** data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic *** the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was *** on the results presented,many practical conclusions can be drawn,for instance,regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.

关键词： Flying fragments Human safety Person-borne improvised explosive device experiment probabilistic analysis

Dynamic probabilistic analysis of stress and deformation for bladed disk assemblies of aeroengine

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Journal of Central South University 2014年第10期21卷 3722-3735页

作者：白斌白广忱 School of Energy and Power Engineering Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum response surface method(ERSM) is produced based on the previous deterministic analysis results with the finite element model(FEM). In this work, many key nonlinear factors, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force and the boundary conditions, are taken into consideration for the model. The changing patterns with time of bladed disk assemblies about stress distribution and total deformation are obtained during the deterministic analysis, and at the same time, the largest deformation and stress nodes of bladed disk assemblies are found and taken as input target of probabilistic analysis in a scientific and reasonable way. Not only their reliability, historical sample, extreme response surface(ERS) and the cumulative probability distribution function but also their sensitivity and effect probability are obtained. Main factors affecting stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies are investigated through the sensitivity analysis of the model. Finally, compared with the response surface method(RSM) and the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), the results show that this new approach is effective.

关键词： bladed disk assemblies probabilistic analysis finite element model extremum response surface method sensitivity analysis transient dynamic analysis

Earthquake-induced landslide displacement attenuation models and application in probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2010年第2期9卷 177-187页

作者： Graeme H.McVerry GNS Science

A landslide displacement (DLL) attenuation model has been developed using spectral intensity and a ratio of critical acceleration coefficient to ground acceleration coefficient. In the development of the model,a New Zealand earthquake record data set with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.2 within a source distance of 175 km is used. The model can be used to carry out deterministic landslide displacement analysis,and readily extended to carry out probabilistic seismic landslide displacement analysis. DLL attenuation models have also been developed by using earthquake source terms,such as magnitude and source distance,that account for the effects of earthquake faulttype,source type,and site conditions. Sensitivity analyses show that the predicted DLL values from the new models are close to those from the Romeo model that was developed from an Italian earthquake record data set. The proposed models are also applied to an analysis of landslide displacements in the Wenchuan earthquake,and a comparison between the predicted and the observed results shows that the proposed models are reliable,and can be confidently used in mapping landslide potential.

关键词： displacement landslide intensity measures deterministic analysis probabilistic analysis

Integrated hazard assessment of rockfall incidents in the Cap Aokas Cliff Region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第6期21卷 1916-1929页

作者： Zohra LADJEL Farid ZAHRI Riheb HADJI Younes HAMED Karim ZIGHMI Kaddour BENMARCE Department of Earth Sciences Institute of Architecture and Earth SciencesFerhat Abbas UniversitySetif 19137Algeria Unit of Emerging Materials Research Ferhat Abbes UniversitySétif 19137Algeria Laboratory of Applied Research in Engineering Geology GeotechnicsWater Sciencesand EnvironmentFerhat Abbas UniversitySetif 19137Algeria International Association of Water Resources in the Southern Mediterranean Basin Gafsa 2112Tunisia Department of Earth Sciences Faculty of SciencesUniversity of GafsaGafsa 2112Tunisia

Rock fall accidents in mountainous cliff areas have significant consequences for human life and *** study aimed to evaluate the rockfall hazard in the Cap Aokas cliff region located along the northeast coast of Algeria by identifying the key factors contributing to rockfall *** employed a combination of kinematic analysis,Matterocking method,and 3D trajectory simulations to determine zones that are susceptible to rockfall *** using a probabilistic and structural approach in conjunction with photogrammetry,we identified the controlling *** kinematic analysis revealed the presence of five discontinuity families,which indicated both plane and wedge failure *** 3D trajectory simulations demonstrated that the falling blocks followed the stream *** then validated the susceptibility maps generated from the analysis using aerial photos and historical rockfall *** findings of this study enhance our understanding of rockfall phenomena and provide valuable insights for the development of effective strategies to mitigate rockfall hazards.

关键词： Trajectory simulations probabilistic analysis Structural approach Rockfall hazard Cap Aokas cliff

Dynamic probabilistic design technique for multi-component system with multi-failure modes

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Journal of Central South University 2018年第11期25卷 2688-2700页

作者： ZHANG Chun-yi LU Cheng FEI Cheng-wei JING Hui-zhe LI Cheng-wei School of Mechanical and Power Engineering Harbin University of Science and TechnologyHarbin 150080China School of Aeronautics Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China

For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface *** dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational *** results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,***,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of *** the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering *** efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.

关键词： probabilistic analysis multi-extremum response surface method multi-component multi-failure modes

probabilistic seismic stability of three-dimensional slopes by pseudo-dynamic approach

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Journal of Central South University 2019年第7期26卷 1687-1695页

作者： PAN Qiu-jing QU Xing-ru WANG Xiang Department of Civil Engineering Central South University Changsha 410075 China Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Clear Water Bay Kowloon Hong Kong China

probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) slopes is studied in this paper. The slope safety factor is computed by combining the kinematic approach of limit analysis using a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism with the pseudo-dynamic approach. The variability of input parameters, including six pseudo-dynamic parameters and two soil shear strength parameters, are taken into account by means of Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) method. The influences of pseudo-dynamic input variables on the computed failure probabilities are investigated and discussed. It is shown that the obtained failure probabilities increase with the pseudo-dynamic input variables and the pseudo-dynamic approach gives more conservative failure probability estimates compared with the pseudo-static approach.

关键词： seismic slope stability pseudo-dynamic analysis probabilistic analysis Monte-Carlo simulation failure probability three-dimensional slop