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probabilistic modeling for an integrated temporary acquired immunity with norovirus epidemiological data

Infectious Disease Modelling 2019年第1期4卷 99-114页

作者： Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah Benedict Barnes Robert Abaidoo Hald Tine Anders Dalsgaard Anders Permin Torben Wilde Schou Department of Mathematics Faculty of Physical and Computational ScienceCollege of ScienceKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyKumasiGhana Laboratory of Integrated Statistical Applications(LISA) Faculty of Physical and Computational SciencesCollege of ScienceKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyKumasiGhana Regional Water and Environmental Sanitation Center-Kumasi College of EngineeringKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyKumasiGhana Department of Theoretical and Applied Biology Faculty of Bio ScienceCollege of ScienceKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyKumasiGhana Research Group of Genomic Epidemiology National Food InstituteTechnical University of DenmarkKgs LyngbyDenmark Food Safety and Zoonoses Department of Veterinary and Animal SciencesFaculty of Health and Medical SciencesUniversity of CopenhagenStigb€ojlen 41870 Frederiksberg CDenmark Office for Innovation and Sector Services AdministrationTechnical University of DenmarkAnker Engelunds Vej2800 Kgs LyngbyDenmark Environment and Toxicology DHIHorsholmDenmark

Integration of acquired immunity into microbial risk assessment for illness incidence is of no doubt essential for the study of susceptibility to *** this study,a probabilistic model was set up as dose response for infection and a mathematical derivation was carried out by integrating immunity to obtain probability of illness *** acquire immunity from epidemiology studies which includes six different Norovirus transmission scenarios such as symptomatic individuals infectious,pre-and post-symptomatic infectiousness(low and high),innate genetic resistance,genogroup 2 type 4 and those with no immune boosting by asymptomatic infection were *** results on illness inflation factor as a function of dose and exposure indicated that high frequency exposures had immense immunity build up even at high dose levels;hence minimized the probability of *** Norovirus transmission dynamics data,results showed,and immunity included models had a reduction of 2e6 logs of magnitude difference in disease burden for both population and individual probable illness ***,the magnitude order of illness for each dose response remained largely the same for all transmission scenarios;symptomatic infectiousness and no immune boosting after asymptomatic infectiousness also remained the same *** integration of epidemiological data on acquired immunity into the risk assessment,more realistic results were achieved signifying an overestimation of probable risk of illness when epidemiological immunity data are not *** finding supported the call for rigorous integration of temporary acquired immunity in dose-response in all microbial risk assessments.

关键词： Quantitative risk assessment probabilistic modeling Immunity integrated modeling

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Induced Earthquake Hazard by Geothermal Power Plants: Statistical Evaluation and probabilistic modeling

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第5期13卷 758-777页

作者： Ali Khansefid Seyed Mahmoudreza Yadollahi Gerhard Müller Francesca Taddei Civil Engineering Department Technical University of Munich80333 MunichGermany Civil Engineering Department KN Toosi University of TechnologyTehran ***Iran Glenn Department of Civil Engineering Clemson UniversityClemsonSC 29634USA

This study statistically evaluated the characteristics of induced earthquakes by geothermal power plants(GPPs)and generated a probabilistic model for simulating stochastic seismic *** well-known power plant zones were selected worldwide from the United States,Germany,France,and New *** operational condition information,as well as the corresponding earthquake catalogs recorded in the vicinity of GPPs,were gathered from their commencement *** statistical properties of events were studied *** using this proposed database,a probabilistic model was developed capable of generating the number of induced seismic events per month,their magnitude,focal depth,and distance from the epicenter to the power plant,*** of these parameters are simulated as a function of power plant injection *** speaking,the model,introduced in this study,is a tool for engineers and scientists interested in the seismic risk assessment of built environments prone to induced seismicity produced by GPPs operation.

关键词： Geothermal power plants Induced seismicity probabilistic modeling Seismic hazard Statistical analysis

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probabilistic modeling of Oil Spills at the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba Using Petromar-3D Model

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2021年第6期9卷 21-34页

作者： Alejandro Rodríguez Dayron Chang Amilcar E. Calzada Dayana Carracedo Dailín Reyes Alexander Lobaina Reinaldo Casals Jessica Hernández Javier Cabrales Institute of Meteorology of Cuba Havana Cuba Meteorology Office of Cuban Company for Air Navigation (ECNA - AISMet) Havana Cuba

This article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained, which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in Cuban coastal areas.

关键词： Oil Spill modeling Petromar Lagrangian Model probabilistic modeling

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EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF PITTING CORROSION FATIGUE LIFE IN AIRCRAFT MATERIALS

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Acta Mechanica Sinica 2003年第3期19卷 247-252页

作者：王清远 N.KAWAGOISHI Q.Chen R.M.PIDAPARTI Dept.of Civil Eng.and Mechanics Sichuan UniversityChengdu 610065China

Corrosion and fatigue properties of aircraft materials are known to have a considerable scatter due to the random nature of materials,loading,and environmental conditions.A probabilistic approach for predicting the pitting corrosion fatigue life has been investigated which captures the effect of the interaction of the cyclic load and corrosive environment and all stages of the corrosion fatigue process (*** pit nucleation and growth,pit-crack transition,short- and long-crack propagation).The probabilistic model investigated considers the uncertainties in the initial pit size,corrosion pitting current,and material properties due to the scatter found in the experimental *** Carlo simulations were performed to define the failure probability *** cumulative distribution functions of fatigue life agreed reasonably well with the existing experimental data.

关键词： pitting corrosion fatigue probabilistic modeling fatigue life prediction life evaluation aeronautic material corrosive environment probabilistic Model Cyclic loads Fatigue life corrosion fatigue life Cumulative Probability Distribution pits Experimental data CORROSION FATIGUE Probability distribution Corrosion

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View-Aware Image Object Compositing and Synthesis from Multiple Sources

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Journal of Computer Science & Technology 2016年第3期31卷 463-478页

作者： Xiang Chen Wei-Wei Xu Sai-Kit Yeung Kun Zhou State Key Laboratory of Computer Aided Design and Computer Graphics Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310058 China Vision Graphics and Computational Design Group Singapore University of Technology and Design Singapore 487372 Singapore

Image compositing is widely used to combine visual elements from separate source images into a single image. Although recent image compositing techniques are capable of achieving smooth blending of the visual elements from different sources, most of them implicitly assume the source images are taken in the same viewpoint. In this paper, we present an approach to compositing novel image objects from multiple source images which have different viewpoints. Our key idea is to construct 3D proxies for meaningful components of the source image objects, and use these 3D component proxies to warp and seamlessly merge components together in the same viewpoint. To realize this idea, we introduce a coordinate- frame based single-view camera calibration algorithm to handle general types of image objects, a structure-aware cuboid optimization algorithm to get the cuboid proxies for image object components with correct structure relationship, and finally a 3D-proxy transformation guided image warping algorithm to stitch object components. We further describe a novel application based on this compositing approach to automatically synthesize a large number of image objects from a set of exemplars. Experimental results show that our compositing approach can be applied to a variety of image objects, such as chairs, cups, lamps, and robots, and the synthesis application can create novel image objects with significant shape and style variations from a small set of exemplars.

关键词： image cloning 3D proxy probabilistic modeling data-driven method

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Stress-controlled fatigue of HfNbTaTiZr high-entropy alloy and associated deformation and fracture mechanisms

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Journal of Materials Science & Technology 2022年第19期114卷 191-205页

作者： Shuying Chen Weidong Li Ling Wang Tao Yuan Yang Tong Ko-Kai Tseng Jien-Wei Yeh Qingang Xiong Zhenggang Wu Fan Zhang Tingkun Liu Kun Li Peter KLiaw Institute for Advanced Studies in Precision Materials Yantai UniversityYantai 264005China Department of Materials Science and Engineering The University of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN 37996USA Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Ohio UniversityAthensOH 45701USA Department of Materials Science and Engineering High Entropy Materials CenterNational Tsing Hua UniversityHsinchu30013TaiwanChina State Key Laboratory of Pulp and Paper Engineering South China University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510640China School of Light Industry and Engineering South China University of TechnologyGuangzhou 510640China College of Materials Science and Engineering Hunan UniversityChangsha 410082China WPI Advanced Institute for Materials Research Tohoku UniversitySendai 980-8577Japan State Key Laboratory of Mechanical Transmission Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044China

The stress-controlled fatigue tests are carried out at a stress ratio of 0.1 and a frequency of 10 Hz,and span both low-cycle and high-cycle regimes by varying the applied stress *** high-cycle fa-tigue regime gives a fatigue strength of 497 MPa and a fatigue ratio of *** equivalent conditions,the alloy’s fatigue strength is greater than all other high-entropy alloys(HEAs)with reported high-cycle fatigue data,dilute body-centered cubic alloys,and many structural alloys such as steels,titanium al-loys,and aluminum *** in-depth analyses of crack-propagation trajectories,fracture-surface morphologies and deformation plasticity by means of various microstructural analysis techniques and theoretical frameworks,the alloy’s remarkable fatigue resistance is attributed to delayed crack initiation in the high-cycle regime,which is achieved by retarding the formation of localized persistent slip bands,and its good resistance to crack propagation in the low-cycle regime,which is accomplished by intrin-sic toughening backed up by extrinsic ***,the stochastic nature of the fatigue data is neatly captured with a 2-parameter Weibull model.

关键词： Fatigue mechanisms Intrinsic toughening Extrinsic toughening probabilistic modeling

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MICROSTRVCTURE SIMULATION AND PROCESS OPTIMIZATION OF TURBINE BLADE CASTINGS

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Acta Metallurgica Sinica(English Letters) 1998年第5期11卷 383-390页

作者： D.Z.Li Z.Y.Hu Q.Li Y.Y.Li Inst of Metal Research The Chinese Acad of Sciences Shenyang China

The probabilistic modeling is applied to calculate microstructural features of the thin complex smprolloy turbine blades cast by the vacuum investment process. The random distribution, orientation and physical mechanism of the nucleation, the growth kinetics of dendrites and the columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET) are *** on these simulating schemes, the comprehensive influence of key process variables on the scale and uniformity of grains has been involved quantitatively. The validity of the modeling is confirmed by selection of the optimum process variables.

关键词： probabilistic modeling microstructure process optimization

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Data Analysis of Multiplex Sequencing at SOLiD Platform:A probabilistic Approach to Characterization and Reliability Increase

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American Journal of Molecular Biology 2018年第1期8卷 26-38页

作者： Fábio Manoel Franca Lobato Carlos Diego Damasceno Daniela Soares Leite Andrea Kelly Ribeiro-dos-Santos Sylvain Darnet Carlos Renato Francês Nandamudi Lankalapalli Vijaykumar Adamo Lima de Santana Engineering and Geoscience Institute Federal University of Western Pará (UFOPa) Santarém Brazil Technological Institute Federal University of Pará (UFPa) Belém Brazil Institute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences University of Sao Paulo (USP) Sao Carlos Brazil Department of Morphology and Physiological Sciences State University of Pará Marabá Brazil Biological Science Institute Federal University of Pará (UFPa) Belém Brazil Laboratory of Computing and Applied Mathematics National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Sao José Dos Campos Brazil

New sequencing technologies such as Illumina/Solexa, SOLiD/ABI, and 454/Roche, revolutionized the biological researches. In this context, the SOLiD platform has a particular sequencing type, known as multiplex run, which enables the sequencing of several samples in a single run. It implies in cost reduction and simplifies the analysis of related samples. Meanwhile, this sequencing type requires an additional filtering step to ensure the reliability of the results. Thus, we propose in this paper a probabilistic model which considers the intrinsic characteristics of each sequencing to characterize multiplex runs and filter low-quality data, increasing the data analysis reliability of multiplex sequencing performed on SOLiD. The results show that the proposed model proves to be satisfactory due to: 1) identification of faults in the sequencing process;2) adaptation and development of new protocols for sample preparation;3) the assignment of a degree of confidence to the data generated;and 4) guiding a filtering process, without discarding useful sequences in an arbitrary manner.

关键词： probabilistic modeling Health Informatics SOLiD Barcoding System Statistical Analysis Multiplex Sequencing

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modeling COMMERCIAL PROCESSES AND CUSTOMER BEHAVIORS TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFUSION RATE OF NEW PRODUCTS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2005年第4期14卷 436-453页

作者： Alain BLOCH Daniel KROB Ada Suk-Fung NG Chaire Action Commerciale et Distribution Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers 40 rue des Je■neurs 75002 Paris France Laboratoire d'Informatique de l'Ecole Polytechnique Ecole Polytechnique & CNRS 91128 Palaiseau Cedex France Department of Transportation & Logistics Malaysia University of Science and Technology Kelana Square Kelana Jaya 47301 Petaling Jaya Selangor Malaysia

This paper presents a generic mathematical model for depicting the diffusion of an innovative product on a given market. Our approach relies on a probabilistic modeling of each customer behavior with respect to the commercial process which is used to promote such a product. We introduce in particular the concept of coherent market that corresponds to a market which can be analyzed in a uniform way within our model. This last notion allows us to recover the classical empirical results that were discovered and widely studied by E.M. Rogers and his school. We explain finally how to use our approach as a support for analytic predictive marketing.

关键词： Analytic marketing coherent market commercial process customer behavior diffusion of innovations Markovian model probabilistic modeling waiting time

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