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Short-term mixed electricity demand and price forecasting using adaptive autoregressive moving average and functional link neural network

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Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2019年第5期7卷 1241-1255页

作者： Sujit Kumar DASH Pradipta Kishore DASH Siksha O Anusandhan Deemed to be University Bhubaneswar 751030India

A new hybrid adaptive autoregressive moving average(ARMA)and functional link neural network(FLNN)trained by adaptive cubature Kalman filter(ACKF)is presented in this paper for forecasting day-ahead mixed short-term demand and electricity prices in smart *** hybrid forecasting framework is intended to capture the dynamic interaction between the electricity consumers and the forecasted prices resulting in the shift of demand curve in electricity *** proposed model comprises a linear ARMA-FLNN obtained by using a nonlinear expansion of the weighted *** nonlinear functional block helps introduce nonlinearity by expanding the input space to higher dimensional space through basis *** train the ARMA-FLNN,an ACKF is used to obtain faster convergence and higher forecasting *** proposed method is tested on several electricity markets,and the performance metrics such as the mean average percentage error(MAPE)and error variance are compared with other forecasting methods,indicating the improved accuracy of the approach and its suitability for a real-time forecasting.

关键词： Mixed demand and price forecasting Cubature Kalman filter price spikes Smart grids

The Impacts of Drug price Regulations in China

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2019年第6期28卷 674-693页

作者： Yi Liu Juliang Zhang TCECheng Yihong Ru Guowei Hua Strategic Planning Department/PICC Research Institute of People's Insurance Company(Group)of China Limited Beijing 100031China School of Economics and Management Beijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing 100044China Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityKowloonHong KongChina

To lower pharmaceutical expenditure,the Chinese government has replaced the Fixed Percent Markup (FPM) policy with the policies of the Separation of Outpatient Pharmacies from Hospitals (SOPH) and the Zero Markup Drug (ZMD).We build a multistage game theoretic model comprising a hospital and a drugstore to analyze the policies' impacts on the providers' drug selection and pricing *** comparing the equihibrium outcomes,we draw the following conclusions:(i) FPM,especially for one imposing a strict margin ceiling,actually induces an expensive prescription given patients' great compliance.(ii) Both SOPH and ZMD can conditionally lower patients' expenditure,and their performances rely on the hospital's selection.(iii) A proper rate of insurance coverage and a removal of drug rebate are helpful to improve the policies' performance.

关键词： Drug price regulations patients' expenditure healthcare reform game theory

Uniform Pricing Strategy vs. price Differentiation Strategy in the Presence of Cost Saving and Demand Increasing

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2019年第3期32卷 932-946页

作者： CAI Qiang LUO Chunlin TIAN Xin WANG Shouyang School of Economics and Management University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management Chinese Academy Sciences Beijing 100190 China School of Information Technology Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics Nanchang 330013 China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China

price differentiation or discrimination strategy has been regarded as the best choice for firms with online and offline channels, however, recent years often witnessed the practices of the uniform pricing strategy. This paper aims to address the question whether the uniform pricing strategy may be better for the manufacturer, when the uniform pricing strategy has a positive impact on increasing the ciistomer demand and reducing the operations cost. The research shows that the uniform pricing strategy can be bet ter than the price differentiation strategy when the cost saving and demand increasing are large enough or the consumers' acceptance of online channel lies in a certain interval. Moreover, the manufac tu rers or brand owners need a tradeoff bet ween the benefit from online channel and the negative impact from the offline channel when they implement the price differentiation strategy. Finally, the authors obtain some managerial insights and implications based on the numerical analyses, which are in line with the phenomena in practice.

关键词： Cost saving demand increasing dual-channel price differentiation strategy uniform pricing strategy

Optimal price-Based Power Control Algorithm with Quality of Service Constraints in Cognitive Radio Networks

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Chinese Journal of Electronics 2015年第2期24卷 393-397页

作者： WANG Zhengqiang JIANG Lingge HE Chen Department of Electronic Engineering Shanghai Jiaotong University Department of Communication and Information Engineering Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications

In price-based cognitive radio networks,the Primary user(PU) can allow the Secondary users(SUs) to access by pricing if their interference power is under the Interference power constraint(IPC). The interaction between the PU and the SUs is modeled as a Stackelberg game with the consideration of the Quality of service(Qo S) of the SUs. The revenue maximization problem of PU is expressed as an equivalent convex optimization problem if the minimum Signal-to-interference and noise ratio(SINR) constraints for the SUs are greater than or equal to 0d B. An optimal pricing algorithm is proposed based on this equivalent convex optimization problem. Simulation results show that the proposed pricing algorithm outperforms the non-uniform pricing algorithm in terms of the revenue of the PU, the sum rate of SUs and the number of admitted SUs.

关键词： Power control Cognitive radio price Quality of service(QoS)

Acupuncture price in forty-one metropolitan regions in the United States: An out-of-pocket cost analysis based on Ok ***

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Journal of Integrative Medicine 2019年第5期17卷 315-320页

作者： Arthur Yin Fan David Dehui Wang Hui Ouyang Haihe Tian Hui Wei Deguang He Changzhen Gong Jipu Wen Ming Jin Chong He Sarah Faggert Alemi Sudaba Rahimi Acupuncture Profession Survey Project American Traditional Chinese Medicine AssociationViennaVA 22182USA Tongrentang Ming Qi Clinic New YorkNY 10016USA Oriental Asclepius LLCPlantationFL 33317USA Eastern Roots Wellness PLCMcLeanVA 22101USA McLean Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine PIC.ViennaVA 22182USA Ohio State Integrative Medicine Wexner Medical CenterOhio State UniversityColumbusOH 43221USA YIN & YANG Healthcare FriendswoodTX 77546USA Chinese Acupuncture and Herbs Center LargoFI 33778USA Wei's Chinese Medical Center Lake WorthFL 33467USA New England School of Acupuncture NewtonMA 02458USA American Academy of Acupuncture Oriental Medicine RosevilleMN 55113USA TCMzone TempeAZ 85281USA

Few studies have focused on the cost of acupuncture treatments although acupuncture has become popular in the United States(U.S.). The purpose of the current study was to examine the out-of-pocket costs incurred from acupuncture services based on an online website, Ok ***. We examined descriptive statistics(range, median and 20% intervals) for the cost of acupuncture "first-time visits"and "follow-up visits" in 41 metropolitan regions in the U.S. The acupuncture prices of 723 clinics throughout 39 metropolitan regions were included, except for Birmingham, Alabama and Detroit, Michigan as there was no online data available at the time of the study for these two regions. The cost range for a first-time acupuncture visit was $15–400;the highest median was $150 in Charleston, South Carolina,while the lowest was $45 in St. Louis, Missouri. The top 10 cities for the highest median were:Baltimore, Washington, D.C., New York, San Francisco, San Jose, Boston, Atlanta, Seattle, Portland and Indianapolis, with the median $120, while the median for all 723 clinics was $112. For the follow-up visits,the cost range was $15–300;the highest median was $108 in Charleston, South Carolina, and the lowest$40 in Miami, Florida. The 10 cities with highest median follow-up acupuncture visit costs were: New York, Baltimore, New Orleans, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Boston and Atlanta, with the median $85, while for all 723 clinics the median price was $80. The estimation of the average gross annual income of each acupuncturist from the regions studied was $95,760, while the total annual cost of patients seeking acupuncture services in the U.S. was about $3.5 billion in 2018.

关键词： Acupuncture price Out-of-pocket cost Annual cost City, United States

Downlink energy efficiency modeling and optimization with backhaul awareness and interference price in ultra cellular HetNet

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The Journal of China Universities of Posts and Telecommunications 2019年第2期26卷 67-81页

作者： Li Bo Sun Xuehong Li Chunshu Xue Kaiping Zhang Xiaoguang Ningxia Key Laboratory of Intelligent Sensing for Desert Information Ningxia UniversityYinchuan 750021China Department of Electronic Engineering and Information Science University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Academy of Opto-Electronics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100080China

The cellular heterogeneous network(HetNet) with ultra dense small cells is called ultra cellular *** energy efficiency for this network is very important for future green wireless *** data rates and power consumptions for three parts(i.e.,macro cells,small cells,and mixed backhaul links) in ultra cellular HetNet are jointly formulated to model downlink energy efficiency considering the active base stations(BSs) and inactive ***,in order to decrease the downlink co-channel interference,the interference price functions are also jointly set up for the three parts in ultra cellular ***,energy efficiency optimization iterative algorithm scheme using the fractional programming and Lagrangian multiplier with constraints for density of ultra dense small cells and fraction of mixed backhaul links is presented with interference *** convergence and computation complexity are also proved in this *** numerical simulations finally demonstrate convergence behavior of the proposed *** comparison,some conclusion can be *** energy efficiency of system is lower as the density of small cell is *** effect on maximizing energy efficiency with interference price outperforms that without interference *** the energy efficiency increases as the fraction of mixed backhaul links is higher because of more power consumption in the microwave backhaul links.

关键词： ultra cellular energy efficiency optimization backhaul link interference price

price-Based Power Control Algorithm in Cognitive Radio Networks Based on Monotone Optimization

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Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science) 2015年第6期20卷 654-659页

作者：王正强蒋铃鸽何晨 School of Communication and Information Engineering Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Department of Electronic Engineering Shanghai Jiaotong University

This paper considers a price-based power control problem in the cognitive radio networks(CRNs).The primary user(PU) can admit secondary users(SUs) to access if their interference powers are all under the interference power constraint. In order to access the spectrum, the SUs need to pay for their interference *** PU first decides the price for each SU to maximize its revenue. Then, each SU controls its transmit power to maximize its revenue based on a non-cooperative game. The interaction between the PU and the SUs is modeled as a Stackelberg game. Using the backward induction, a revenue function of the PU is expressed as a non-convex function of the transmit power of the SUs. To find the optimal price for the PU, we rewrite the revenue maximization problem of the PU as a monotone optimization by variable substitution. Based on the monotone optimization, a novel price-based power control algorithm is proposed. Simulation results show the convergence and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm compared to the non-uniform pricing algorithm.

关键词： power control cognitive radio monotone optimization price

How did the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in China evolve from 1999 to 2015? The role of natural gas price reform

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Petroleum Science 2019年第3期16卷 685-700页

作者： Kangyin Dong Xiucheng Dong Renjin Sun School of Business Administration China University of Petroleum-Beijing Beijing 102249 China Department of Agricultural Food and Resource Economics Rutgers The State University of New Jersey New Brunswick NJ 08901 USA School of International Trade and Economics University of International Business and Economics Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Heavy Oil Processing China University of Petroleum-Beijing Beijing 102249 China

As a cleaner,high-efficiency,and low-carbon fuel,natural gas has been an important fuel resource for *** achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand,China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing *** a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999-2015,this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in *** this purpose,a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is *** results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity,the phenomenon is ***,the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income *** estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven *** addition,the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s *** gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China,while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income *** findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

关键词： Natural gas demand price and income elasticities price reform Regional analysis China

A comparative study of land price estimation and mapping using regression kriging and machine learning algorithms across Fukushima prefecture,Japan

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2020年第5期30卷 794-822页

作者： DERDOURI Ahmed MURAYAMA Yuji Division of Spatial Information Science Graduate School of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of TsukubaTennodaiTsukubaIbarakiJapan Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences University of TsukubaTennodaiTsukubaIbarakiJapan

Finding accurate methods for estimating and mapping land prices at the macro-scale based on publicly accessible and low-cost spatial data is an essential step in producing a meaningful reference for regional *** asset would assist them in making economically justified decisions in favor of key investors for development projects and post-disaster recovery *** 2005,the Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,and Transport of Japan has made land price data open to the public in the form of observations at dispersed *** this data is useful,it does not provide complete information at every site for all market ***,estimating and mapping land prices based on sound statistical theories is *** paper presents a comparative study of spatial prediction of land prices in 2015 in Fukushima prefecture based on geostatistical methods and machine learning *** use,elevation,and socioeconomic factors,including population density and distance to railway stations,were used for *** show the superiority of the random forest ***,land prices are distributed unevenly across the prefecture with the most expensive land located in the western region characterized by flat topography and the availability of well-connected and highly dense economic hotspots.

关键词： land price spatial estimation kriging machine learning Fukushima prefecture,Japan