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The allometric propagation of COVID-19 is explained by human travel

Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第1期7卷 122-133页

作者： Rohisha Tuladhar Paolo Grigolini Fidel Santamaria Department of Biology University of Texas at San AntonioSan AntonioTX78249USA Department of Physics University of North TexasDentonTX76203USA

We analyzed the number of cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 as a function of time in countries around the *** tracked the increase in cases from the onset of the pandemic in each region for up to 150 *** found that in 81 out of 146 regions the trajectory was described with a power-law function for up to 30 *** also detected scale-free properties in the majority of sub-regions in Australia,Canada,China,and the United States(US).We developed an allometric model that was capable of fitting the initial phase of the pandemic and was the best predictor for the propagation of the illness for up to 100 *** then determined that the power-law COVID-19 exponent correlated with measurements of human *** COVID-19 exponent correlated with the magnitude of air passengers per *** correlation persisted when we analyzed the number of air passengers per US states,and even per US metropolitan ***,the COVID19 exponent correlated with the number of vehicle miles traveled in the ***,air and vehicular travel explained 70%of the variability of the COVID-19 *** together,our results suggest that the scale-free propagation of the virus is present at multiple geographical scales and is correlated with human *** conclude that models of disease transmission should integrate scale-free dynamics as part of the modeling strategy and not only as an emergent phenomenological property.

关键词： COVID-19 propagation Human mobility power law scaling Allometric model Scalefree dynamics

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