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population viability analysis of small population:a case study for Asian elephant in China

Integrative Zoology 2020年第5期15卷 350-362页

作者： Changhuan HE Jiaojiao DU Di ZHU Li ZHANG College of Life Sciences Beijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina

Small populations are at risk of extinction from deterministic and stochastic *** than 250 Asian elephants(Elephas maximus)remain in China,and are distributed in a few isolated areas;yet,population viability analyses of this endangered population have not been ***,the current genetic status of the Pu’Er-Mengyang Asian elephant populations in China was analyzed,and the risk of extinction was predicted over the next 500 *** affecting the viability of this population were determined through *** genetic diversity of the population was very low(mean allele number:3.1;expected heterozygosity:0.463),even though a recent population bottleneck was not *** effective population size was approximately 24.1 adult *** adult breeding individuals exist to maintain population *** simulation model showed that this population would not go extinct in the next 500 ***,illegal poaching and harvesting could negatively affect population size.A sensitivity analysis showed that the mean stochastic growth rate of the study population is sensitive to sex ratio,number of breeding females,mortality of females of different age classes,carrying capacity,and lethal *** on our results,we suggest that action should be taken to alleviate inbreeding and any further loss of genetic diversity,by connecting fragmented elephant habitat or by translocating individual *** addition,human–elephant conflict should be mitigated using various modern approaches,including crop guarding techniques,and by encouraging farmers to switch to crops and income sources not vulnerable to elephant raids.

关键词： Asian elephant corridor construction genetic diversity human-elephant conflict population viability analysis

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population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes

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Integrative Zoology 2012年第4期7卷 356-372页

作者： Emília Patrícia MEDICI Arnaud Leonard Jean DESBIEZ Lowland Tapir Conservation Initiative IPÊ-Institute for Ecological ResearchNazaréPaulistaSão PauloBrazil IUCN/SSC Tapir Specialist Group(TSG) GlandSwitzerland Escola Superior de Conservação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade(ESCAS/IPÊ) NazaréPaulistaSão PauloBrazil IUCN/SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group(CBSG) Brazil NetworkCampo GrandeMSBrazil Royal Zoological Society of Scotland EdinburghScotland

A population viability analysis(PVA)was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region,Brazil,including Morro do Diabo State Park(MDSP)and surrounding forest *** from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to per-sist over the next 100 years;however,200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable ***-ity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir *** road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population *** modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation,as fragments act as ***,the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region,particularly in the smaller *** establishment of corridors con-necting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate,making ta-pirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes,but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using *** PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on:the effective protection of MDSP;maintenance and,whenever possible,enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape,reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments;and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments.

关键词： Atlantic Forest fragmentation lowland tapir minimum viable population population viability analysis

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Can we reestablish a self-sustaining population?A case study on reintroduced Crested Ibis with population viability analysis

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Avian Research 2021年第2期12卷 131-140页

作者： Yashuai Zhan Fang Wang Zhenxia Cui Min Li Xia Li Xinping Ye Xiaoping Yu College of Life Sciences Shaanxi Normal UniversityXi’an 710119China Reintroduction Center of Crested Ibis Ningshan CountyAn’kang 725000China

Background:One of the most challenging tasks in wildlife conservation and management is clarifying which and how external and intrinsic factors influence wildlife demography and long-term *** wild population of the Crested Ibis(Nipponia nippon)has recovered to approximately 4400,and several reintroduction programs have been carried out in China,Japan and *** viability analysis on this endangered species has been limited to the wild population,showing that the long-term population growth is restricted by the carrying capacity and ***,gaps in knowledge of the viability of the reintroduced population and its drivers in the release environment impede the identification of the most effective population-level priorities for aiding in species ***:The field monitoring data were collected from a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Ningshan,China from 2007 to *** individual-based VORTEX model(Version 10.***.5.0)was used to predict the future viability of the reintroduced population by incorporating adaptive patterns of ibis movement in relation to catastrophe frequency,mortality and sex ***:The reintroduced population in Ningshan County is unlikely to go extinct in the next 50 *** popula-tion size was estimated to be 367,and the population genetic diversity was estimated to be *** analysis showed that population size and extinction probability were dependent on the carrying capacity and sex *** carrying capacity is the main factor accounting for the population size and genetic diversity,while the sex ratio is the primary factor responsible for the population growth ***:A viable population of the Crested Ibis can be established according to population viability *** on our results,conservation management should prioritize a balanced sex ratio,high-quality habitat and low mortality.

关键词： Carrying capacity Nipponia nippon population viability analysis Reintroduction Sex ratio VORTEX model

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population viability analysis (PVA) OF THE MASSASAUGA RATTLESNAKE SISTRURUS CATENATUS IN ONTARIO,CANADA

POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS (PVA) OF THE MASSASAUGA RATTLE...

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第三世界生态高峰会

作者： John Middleton Jee Yan Chu Department of Tourism and Envirnment.Brock Universitv St Catharines Ontario. Canada L2S3A1 Department of Tourism and Envirnment.Brock Universitv St Catharines Ontario. Canada L2S3A1

The massasauga rattlesnake,Sistrurus catenatus,is a medium-sized pit viper found in eastern North *** is the only venomous snake in eastern Canada,where it is found only in the province of Ontario. Owing to habitat fragmentation,direct human persecution,and other factors it now occurs only in isolated pockets within its former *** is listed as“threatened”in Canada and“endangered”in the *** study examines available demographic data using population viability analysis(PVA)to consider the long-term viability of the massasauga. It aims to determine the most vulnerable life-stage of this species so that conservation resources can be focussed to maximize its chance of *** study points out important gaps in the data set to date on the massasauga,and thus helps focus future field studies on conservation of this ***:Demographic data were extracted

关键词： OF THE MASSASAUGA RATTLESNAKE SISTRURUS CATENATUS IN ONTARIO,CANADA population viability analysis PVA

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A preliminary analysis of population viability in Cabot’s Tragopan （Tragopan caboti） in Wuyanling National Natural Reserve, Zhejinag Province,China

A preliminary analysis of population viability in Cabot’s T...

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23rd International Ornithological Congress

作者： Zhang Yanyun and Zheng GuangmeiKey Lab. of the Education Ministry of Biological Diversity and Engineering College of Life Science Beijing NormalUniversity Beijing 100875 China

＜正＞ population viability analysis （PVA） is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to evaluate the effects of potential management strategies. Because of its sophistication, PVA has been recognized by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature （IUCN） as one of five internationally accepted criteria for risk categorization and quantification of real world management decisions. There are 85 （?2.5） Cabot’s Tragopan （Tragopan caboti） in Wuyanling National Natural Reserve, a population

关键词： population viability analysis Cabot’s Tragopan population increase egg loss

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Rapid ongoing decline of Baird’s tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras

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Integrative Zoology 2012年第4期7卷 420-428页

作者： Niall P.McCANN Phil M.WHEELER Tim COLES Michael W.BRUFORD School of Biosciences Cardiff UniversityCardiffUK Centre for Environmental and Marine Sciences University of HullScarboroughUK Operation Wallacea Wallace HouseOld BolingbrokeUK

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011,the conservation of Baird's tapir(Tapirus baindi)in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Direc-tor of the Honduran Instute of Conservation and Forestry(CF)and the Tapir Specialist Group(TSG)Despite this agreement,accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss contimue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in *** ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy *** study has iden-tified an increase in hunting pressure,coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir ***,we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cu-suco National Park using the software PRESENCE,and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the fiuture dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy *** found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time fiame,but that various in-tervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying *** and extinction prob-ability were shown to respond marlkedly to the increase in hunting pressure;and occupancy models supported the fiuture population predictions generated by *** study suggests that immediate intervention is re-quired to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent 1ocal extinction of the species.

关键词： Baird's tapir Honduras population viability analysis PRESENCE VORTEX

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Incorporating stochasticity and uncertainty into PVA models for birds

Incorporating stochasticity and uncertainty into PVA models ...

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23rd International Ornithological Congress

作者： Bernt-ErikSther Steinar Engen Dept. of Zoology Norwegian Univ. of Sci. and Tech. N-7491 Trondheim Norway Bernt-Erik. Dept. of Mathematical Sciences Norwegian Univ. of Sci. and Tech. N-7491 Trondheim Norway

＜正＞ Successful predictions of time to extinction require modeling of the expected dynamics as well as the stochastic effects. In addition, information must be available on the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. We propose that the population prediction Interval （PPI） may be a useful concept for population viability analysis. This is defined as the stochastic interval that includes the unknown population size with probability （1-α）. If T is the

关键词： extinction population viability analysis stochastic modeling population dynamics

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