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model.ing Distribution of Under-Five Child Diarrhoea across Malawi

Journal of Mathematics and System Science 2016年第3期6卷 91-101页

作者： Tsirizani M. Kaombe Jimmy J. Namangale Mathematical Sciences Department Chancellor College - University of Malawi P.O. Box 280 Zomba Malawi

Analysis of diarrhoea data in Malawi has been commonly done using classical methods. However, different approaches, such as Bayesian methods, have been introduced in literature. This study aimed at trying out semi-parametric methods in comparison with classical ones, as well as how each isolates risk factors for child diarrhoea. This was done by fitting Logit, poisson, and Bayesian model. to 2006 Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data. The comparison between Logit and poisson model. was done via chi-square＇s goodness-of-fit test. Confidence and Credible Intervals were used to compare Logit/poisson and Bayesian model.estimates. model.ing and inference in Bayesian method was done through MCMC techniques. The results showed agreement in significance and direction of estimates from Bayesian and poisson/Logit model., but poisson provided better fit than Logit model. Further, all the model. identified child＇s age, breastfeeding status, region of stay and toilet-sharing status as significant factors for determining the child＇s risk. The model. ruled out effects of mother＇s education, area of residence, and source of drinking water on the risk. Bayesian model.separately proved significant closeness to lake/river factor. The findings imply that classical and semi-parametric model. are equally helpful when estimating the child＇s risk to diarrhoea.

关键词： Child Diarrhoea Bayesian methods Logit model poisson model.

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