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physics-informed AI Surrogates for Day-Ahead Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting with Incomplete Data for Smart Grid in Smart Cities

引用

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2023年第10期137卷 527-554页

作者： Zeyu Wu Bo Sun Qiang Feng Zili Wang Junlin Pan School of Reliability and Systems Engineering Beihang UniversityBeijingChina Institute of Reliability Engineering Beihang UniversityBeijingChina

Due to the high inherent uncertainty of renewable energy,probabilistic day-ahead wind power forecasting is crucial for modeling and controlling the uncertainty of renewable energy smart grids in smart ***,the accuracy and reliability of high-resolution day-ahead wind power forecasting are constrained by unreliable local weather prediction and incomplete power generation *** article proposes a physics-informed artificial intelligence(AI)surrogates method to augment the incomplete dataset and quantify its uncertainty to improve wind power forecasting *** incomplete dataset,built with numerical weather prediction data,historical wind power generation,and weather factors data,is augmented based on generative adversarial *** augmentation,the enriched data is then fed into a multiple AI surrogates model constructed by two extreme learning machine networks to train the forecasting model for wind ***,the forecasting models’accuracy and generalization ability are improved by mining the implicit physics information from the incomplete *** incomplete dataset gathered from a wind farm in North China,containing only 15 days of weather and wind power generation data withmissing points caused by occasional shutdowns,is utilized to verify the proposed method’s *** with other probabilistic forecastingmethods,the proposed method shows better accuracy and probabilistic performance on the same incomplete dataset,which highlights its potential for more flexible and sensitive maintenance of smart grids in smart cities.

关键词： physics-informed method probabilistic forecasting wind power generative adversarial network extreme learning machine day-ahead forecasting incomplete data smart grids

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