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persistent heavy rainfall over South China During May–August:Subseasonal Anomalies of Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第6期27卷 769-787页

作者：洪伟任雪娟 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University

This study investigates the relationship between subseasonal variations of the circulation and sea surface temperature（SST） over the South China–East Asian coastal region（EACR） in association with the persistent heavy rainfall（PHR） events over South China during May–August through statistical analysis. Based on the intensity threshold and duration criterion of the daily rainfall, a total of 63 May–June（MJ） and 59July–August（JA） PHR events are selected over South China from 1979 to 2011. The lower-level circulation anomalies on subseasonal timescale exhibit an anomalous cyclone over South China and an anomalous anticyclone shaped like a tongue over the South China Sea（SCS） during the PHR events for MJ *** anomalous cyclone over South China in MJ originates from low-value systems in the mid-high latitudes before the rainfall. The anomalous anticyclone over the SCS is due to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） and the southeastward propagation of the anomalous anticyclone from South China before the rainfall. For JA group, the lower-level anomalous circulation pattern is similar to that for MJ over the South China–EACR, but with di？erent features of propagation. The subseasonal anomalous anticyclone is also related to the westward stretch of the WPSH, while the anomalous cyclone is traced back to the weak anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea several days before the rainfall *** SST anomaly（SSTA） is observed over the SCS and the Philippine Sea during the MJ PHR events on the subseasonal timescale. It is closely linked with the variation of local anomalous anticyclone. In contrast, negative SSTA occupies the South China coastal region for the JA PHR events, and it is driven by the anomalous cyclone which propagates northwestward from the Philippine Sea. The subseasonal positive（negative） SSTAs are generated via the local processes of above（below）-normal incident solar radiation and below（above）-normal latent heat fl

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall western Pacific subtropical high subseasonal variations of sea surface temperature South China

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On the Climatology of persistent heavy rainfall Events in China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2006年第5期23卷 678-692页

作者：汤燕冰甘晶晶赵璐高坤 Department of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310027

persistent heavy rainfall events （PHR events） comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their comprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands, were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall extreme precipitation event China climatology

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How Frequently Will the persistent heavy rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第10期39卷 1673-1692,I0016,I0017页

作者： Zi-An GE Lin CHEN Tim LI Lu WANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China International Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii 96822USA

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive *** the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is *** index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is *** accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year *** model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global *** on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection *** CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection *** results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall middle and lower Yangtze River basin future projection CMIP5 and CMIP6 models generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution

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A COMBINED VERIFICATION METHOD FOR PREDICTABILITY OF persistent heavy rainfall EVENTS OVER EAST ASIA BASED ON ENSEMBLE FORECAST

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 35-46页

作者： WU Zhi-peng CHEN Jing ZHANG Han-bin CHEN Fa-jing ZHUANG Xiao-ran Chongqing Meteorological Observatory Chongqing 401147 China Center of Numerical Weather Prediction of CMA Beijing 100081 China College of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information&Science TechnologyNanjing 210044 China

persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer,and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many *** this study,operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA)are used,and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated.A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability(ICP)established on basic verification indicators,i.e.,Equitable Threat Score(ETS)of 24 h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of Height at 500 h Pa,are selected in this study to distinguish"good"and"poor"prediction from all ensemble *** the use of the metrics of ICP,the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is *** results show that the"good member"and"poor member"can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR."Good member"shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location,duration and the *** growth errors for"poor"members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar *** growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall verification method predictability ensemble prediction error analysis

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Long-term changes in wintertime persistent heavy rainfall over southern China contributed by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第5期12卷 361-368页

作者： LIU Yu HSU Pang-Chi Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science& Technology

During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the ***,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO *** the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.

关键词： persistent heavy rainfall southern China MaddenJulian Oscillation decadal change

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