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Is the paris rulebook sufficient for effective implementation of paris agreement?

Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第4期13卷 600-611页

作者： Ruo-Shui SUN Xiang GAO Liang-Chun DENG Can WANG School of Environment Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation Beijing 100035China Center for Environmental Progress Wuhan 430070China

Glasgow Climate Conference concluded the negotiation on implementing rules for paris agreement and adopted the Glasgow Climate *** on practices under the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol,paris agreement enhanced global climate change *** agreement established a system centered around‘nationally determined contributions’(NDCs)of Parties,with a transparency framework to ensure information flow running the system,meanwhile facilitating implementation by Parties through the mechanism on facilitation and compliance,as well as urging Parties to enhance ambition both at individual level and aggregate level through the mechanism on Global *** doing so,it is logical that the system would lead to the achievement of the goal set by paris ***,the system stil faces significant deficiency,such as lack of information timeliness,intransparency of some necessary information,hypothesis-based but not solution-based decision-making,and lack of effective assurance for developing countries to get finance and technology *** is concluded that this system is beneficial to long-term climate change policy decision and tracking progress of actions,while for shor-term decision-making,more comprehensive consideration is needed than only based on the mechanisms of and outcomes from the *** society should pay more attention to the progress of implementation,as well as ambition of various support provided to developing countries,than only the ambition of mitigation target numbers.

关键词： Global climate govermnance paris agreement paris rulebook Nationally determined contribution Multilateral environmental agreement

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Achieving paris agreement temperature goals requires carbon neutrality by middle century with far-reaching transitions in the whole society

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第2期12卷 281-286页

作者： HUANG Meng-Tian ZHAI Pan-Mao State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100081China

The concept of carbon neutrality is much emphasized in IPCC Spatial Report on Global Warming of 1.5C in order to achieve the long-termtemperature goals as reflected in paris *** keep these goals within reach,peaking the global carbon emissions as soon as possible andachieving carbon neutrality are urgently ***,global CO_(2)emissions continued to grow up to a record high of 43.1 Gt CO_(2)during2019,with fossil CO_(2)emissions of 36.5 Gt CO_(2)and land-use change emissions of 6.6 Gt CO_(2).In such case,the global carbon emissions mustdrop 32 Gt CO_(2)(7.6%per year)from 2020 to 2030 for the 1.5C warming limit,which is even larger than the COVID-induced reduction(6.4%)in global CO_(2)emissions during ***,China has announced scaling up its national commitments,aiming to peak its CO_(2)emissionsbefore 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before *** these goals requires rapid and far-reaching transitions in the whole *** one hand,deeper emissions reduction in all sectors includes decarbonization of energy,electrification,increasing share of renewables,energyefficiency,sustainable land management,decarbonization of transport,reducing food loss and waste,as well as behavior and lifestyles *** the other hand,possible actions by removing CO_(2)from the atmosphere involves enlarging land and ocean net carbon sink,CO_(2)removaltechnologies(such as Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage),and CO_(2)capture,utilization and storage technologies,but should be cautionfor their scales and tradeoffs.

关键词： Carbon neutrality Carbon emissions peak Climate change paris agreement Green recovery COVID-19 pandemic

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Global Monsoon Changes under the paris agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2019年第3期36卷 279-291,339,340页

作者： Xia QU Gang HUANG Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Joint Center for Global Change Studies JCGCS

Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1(Community Atmosphere Model, version 5)[CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon(GM)features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation(GMP,the local summer precipitation), GM area(GMA), and GM percentage(the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the paris agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes:(1)The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5℃ temperature goal and increases under the 2.0℃ temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage.(2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation.(3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals.(4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature *** increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant *** addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.

关键词： global monsoon paris agreement temperature goals precipitation

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Establishing a measurement,reporting,and verification system for climate finance in post-paris agreement period

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2016年第4期16卷 235-244页

作者： Yinshuo Xu Ziyuan Dong Yao Wang Research Institute of Finance and Economics International Research Institute of Green FinanceCentral University of Finance and Economics School of Finance Central University of Finance and Economics

The measurement,reporting,and verification(MRV) of climate finance was originated from discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC).It has been one of the key issues of global climate negotiations since 2009 and will continue to be of significant importance in addressing climate change and strengthening international *** paper analyses the concept,the objective,and the progress of the MRV of climate finance based on reviews of the latest literature and think-tank reports regarding climate finance regime and *** the analysis,challenges faced with the MRV of climate finance are *** paper presents that the comparability of climate finance data needs to be improved due to the variety of methodologies used for disaggregating climate *** addition,the integrality of the MRV system of climate finance has been impaired by the lack of feedback mechanism from the recipients to the contributors in reporting ***,although accounting system of climate finance has been developing and improving,it remains incapacity in providing accurate data on disbursed climate *** to the above challenges,this paper proposes the key tasks in establishing a comprehensive MRV system for climate finance at international *** tasks involve developing a measurement system with consistent data basis and accounting basis,a reporting system with more detailed guidance and standardized formats,as well as a verification mechanism balancing top-down and bottom-up review *** the last section,this paper concludes that the establishment of an improved MRV of climate finance requires concerted cooperation and negotiations between developed and developing country Parties under the *** one of the few developing country donors to the Global Environmental Facility(GEF),China is suggested to clarify its propositions as a developing country in aspects such as concept,coverage,and architecture o

关键词： United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change paris agreement climate finance measurement reporting and verification system

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The gap report of global climate change mitigation, finance, and governance after the United States declared its withdrawal from the paris agreement

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2017年第3期15卷 196-208页

作者： Qimin Chai Sha Fu Huaqing Xu Weiran Li Yan Zhong Department of International Cooperation National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation(NCSC) Research Center for Contemporary Management (RCCM) Tsinghua University

On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the paris agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus among policy circles and of the international community. Based on the self-developed US Policy Assessment Model, this paper systematically evaluates the three potential ＂major deficits＂ in terms of mitigation, climate finance, and global climate governance, as a result of the US withdrawal from the paris agreement and puts forward policy suggestions for coping with such transformations accordingly. The study shows that the United States ＇withdrawal from the paris agreement will affect the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and result in an additional 8.8-13.4% increase in the global emissions reduction deficit. The United States＇ withdrawal will also deteriorate the existing climate finance mechanism. The Green Climate Fund （GCF）＇s funding gap will increase by USS2 billion, while the gap of long-term climate finance will increase by about USS5 billion a year. Either the China-EU or the ＂BASIC plus＂ mechanism could fill the governance deficit caused by the United States and the lack of political momentum may continue for a while in the future.

关键词： Trump administration paris agreement mitigationdeficit finance deficit global climate governance deficit

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Effects of the US withdrawal from paris agreement on the carbon emission space and cost of China and India

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Frontiers in Energy 2018年第3期12卷 362-375页

作者： Hancheng DAI Yang XIE Haibin ZHANG Zhongjue YU Wentao WANG College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking UniversityBeijing 100875 China School of Economics and Management Beihang University Beijing100191 China School of International Studies Peking University Beijing 100875China School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shanghai Jiao TongUniversity Shanghai 200240 China The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21 Ministry of Scienceand Technology Beijing 100038 China

Climate mitigation has become a global issue and most countries have promised their greenhouse gas reduction target. However, after Trump took office as president of the United States （US）, the US withdrew from the paris agreement. As the biggest economy, this would have impacts on the emission space of other countries. This paper, by using the integrated model of energy, environ- ment and economy/computable general equilibrium （IMED/CGE） model, assesses the impacts of the US withdrawal from paris agreement on China, India in terms of carbon emission space and mitigation cost under Nationally Determined Contributions （NDCs） and 2~C scenarios due to changed emission pathway of the US. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and fixed burden sharing scheme among the countries, the failure of the US to honor its NDC commitment will increase its carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other regions, including China and India, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be raised. In 2030, under the 2℃ target, the carbon price will increase by US$14.3 to US$45.3/t in China and by US S10.7 to US$33.9/t in India. In addition, China and India will incur additional GDP loss. Under the 2℃ target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$23.3 to US$72.6 billion （equivalent to US$17.4 to US$54.2/capita）, and that of India would rise by US$14.2 to US$43.1 billion （equivalent to US$9.3 to US$28.2/capita）.

关键词： paris agreement China and India the US withdrawal carbon emission space mitigation cost

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paris agreement:a roadmap to tackle climate and environment challenges

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National Science Review 2016年第2期3卷 153-153页

作者： Lixin Wu Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology

Adopted by the 196 Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)last December,and signed by 175 countries on 22 April 2016,the paris agreement provides guidelines for global efforts in addressing climate change,and establishes a five-year review cycle for detailed work programs of cutting emissions,differentiation between countries as to their responsibilities for action,and financing for poor countries to deal with rising temperatures.

关键词： paris agreement cycle

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The paris agreement Revisited: Diplomatic Triumphalism or Denial of Climate Justice?

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Journal of Environmental Protection 2022年第2期13卷 183-203页

作者： Chrislain Eric Kenfack Department of Political Science University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada

The 2015 paris COP 21, after the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen COP, raised many expectations regarding the elaboration of the post-Kyoto legal instrument to lead the global fight against climate change. At the sunset of the summit, world leaders and climate negotiators, relayed by mainstream Medias, presented the results of the paris climate discussions as an important success for the global climate community. A success contested by climate justice and just transition defenders. Given the foundation role the paris agreement plays for subsequent global, national and sub-national climate policies on one side and, on the other side, the continuous growing global demands for climate justice and just transition, this article investigates the conciliatory possibilities put in place by the agreement to advance those demands. To reach such goals, the article focuses on the retrospective critical reading of the agreement in the light of human-centered climate perspectives such as climate justice and just transition, without neglecting other aspects related to the very nature of the agreement, and the enhanced commodification of nature and resulting carbon trading. This analysis of the agreement through climate justice lenses will be instrumental in confirming or disproving the following hypothesis: From the climate justice and just transition perspectives, the success of the paris regime will not pass through the implementation of the paris agreement itself, but thought corrective mechanisms that could be put in place to correct the loopholes of the agreement. The initiative of putting such post-paris corrective mechanisms in place is expected to be one of the key priorities of the international community.

关键词： Climate Justice Climate Politics Just Transition Loss and Damage paris agreement

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BRICS Climate Cooperation in the Post-paris agreement Era

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International Relations and Diplomacy 2021年第7期9卷 259-277页

作者： FAN Xinzhu Shanghai International Studies University ShanghaiChina

As representatives of emerging economies,BRICS countries are increasingly prominent in global *** rapid economic development of BRICS countries is accompanied by a significant increase in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,and BRICS countries are paying increasing attention to climate change issues and actively participating in the construction of the international climate *** paris agreement was a historic breakthrough in international climate negotiations,and since then BRICS countries have strengthened multilateral and bilateral cooperation in energy efficiency,agricultural emission reduction and climate governance *** to the constraints of technology,cooperation mechanism construction,financing,and other objective conditions,BRICS countries still face some challenges to further advance the global climate governance agenda with their group power in the short *** BRICS countries can further advance the global climate governance agenda as a group in the post-paris agreement era depends on whether they can improve energy efficiency and optimize their energy mix,and whether they can deepen cooperation in agricultural emission reduction and climate *** countries need to continue to promote clean energy development and low-carbon economic transformation,deepen the potential of climate cooperation in agricultural emission reduction,and give full play to the climate financing role of the New Development Bank,so as to further enhance the level of climate *** the same time,BRICS countries can widely involve developing countries in climate governance cooperation and strengthen dialogue and exchanges with other countries,so as to promote global climate governance in the post-paris agreement era.

关键词： BRICS countries climate governance paris agreement post-paris agreement era

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The half-degree matters for heat-related health impacts under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming scenarios: Evidence from ambulance data in Shenzhen, China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第5期12卷 628-637页

作者： HE Yi-Ling DENG Shi-Zhou HO Hung Chak WANG Hui-Bin CHEN Yang Shakoor HAJAT REN Chao ZHOU Bai-Quan CHENG Jian Wenbiao HU MA Wen-Jun HUANG Cun-Rui School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou51000China Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai200030China Department of Urban Planning and Design University of Hong KongHong KongChina State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing100081China Department of Public Health Environments and SocietyLondon School of Hygiene&Tropical MedicineLondonWC1H 9SHUnited Kingdom Faculty of Architecture University of Hong KongHong KongChina Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthAnhui Medical UniversityHefei230032China School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of TechnologyBrisbane4059Australia Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionGuangzhou510399China School of Public Health Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou450001China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai Meteorological ServiceShanghai200030China Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

The paris agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃. Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5 ℃ warming target would substantially reduce the impact on human health compared to 2 ℃, but they mainly focused on the magnitude of temperature changes under future climate change scenarios without any consideration of greater frequency of cumulative heat exposures within a day. Here we quantified the health risks of compound daytime and nighttime hot extremes using morbidity data in a megacity of China, and also identified the time-period of heat exposure with higher risks. Then we projected future morbidity burden attributable to compound hot extremes due to the half-degree warming. We estimated that the 2 ℃ warming scenario by 2100 as opposed to 1.5 ℃ would increase annual heat-related ambulance dispatches by 31% in Shenzhen city. Substantial additional impacts were associated with occurrence of consecutive hot days and nights, with ambulance dispatches increased by 82%. Our results suggested that compound hot extremes should be considered in assessment of heat-related health impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. Minimizing the warming of climate in a more ambitious target can significantly reduce the health damage.

关键词： Climate change Compound hot extreme paris agreement Human health Morbidity effect

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