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Tree ring based drought variability in Northwest Tajikistan since 1895 AD

Journal of Arid Land 2020年第3期12卷 413-422页

作者： YANG Meilin YU Yang ZHANG Haiyan WANG Qian GAN Miao YU Ruide State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China School of Environment and Material Science Yantai UniversityYantai 264005China

Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Central *** trees are ecologically significant in the local environment,and therefore the tree ring analysis can provide a clear record of regional historical *** study analyzed the correlation between the tree ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica Komarov and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Northwest Tajikistan,based on 56 tree ring samples collected from Shahristan in the pamir *** data including precipitation,temperature and the SPEI were downloaded from the Climate Research Unit(CRU)TS *** COFECHA program was used for cross-dating,and the ARSTAN program was used to remove the growth trend of the tree itself and the influence of non-climatic factors on the growth of the trees.A significant correlation was found between the radial growth of *** trees and the monthly mean SPEI of February–*** monthly mean SPEI sequence of February–April during the period of 1895–2016 was reconstructed,and the reconstruction equation explained 42.5%of the *** the past 122 a(1895–2016),the study area has experienced three wetter periods(precipitation above average):1901–1919,1945–1983 and 1995–2010,and four drier periods(precipitation below average):1895–1900,1920–1944,1984–1994 and 2011–*** spatial correlation analysis revealed that the monthly mean SPEI reconstruction sequence of February–April could be used to characterize the large-scale dry-wet variations in Northwest Tajikistan during the period of 1895–*** study could provide comparative data for validating the projections of climate models and scientific basis for managing water resources in Tajikistan in the context of climate change.

关键词： tree ring width chronology standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) drought Juniperus turkestanica pamir region

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