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Flood variability in the upper Yangtze River over the last millennium——Insights from a comparison of climate-hydrological model simulated and reconstruction

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第3期66卷 547-567页

作者： Ran HUO Hua CHEN Lu LI Chong-Yu XU Jingjing LI Si HONG Chesheng ZHAN Jun XIA State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430072China Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430072China NORCE Norwegian Research Centre Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchJahnebakken 55007 BergenNorway Department of Geosciences University of OsloP.O Box 1047 Blindern0316 OsloNorway Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related and Surface Processes Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Understanding hydrological responses to rising levels of greenhouse gases are essential for climate and impact *** is,however,often limited by a lack of long record of observational data to provide a basis for understanding the longterm behavior of the climate *** reconstructed data and(global climate and hydrological)model simulations will help us to better understand the variability of climate and hydrology over timescales ranging from decades to *** this study,we proposed an integrated approach to study flood variability in the upper reach of the Yangtze River over the last millennium to the end of the 21st *** accomplish this,we first drove hydrological models using the precipitation and temperature from four Global Climate Models(GCM),BCC-CSM1.1,MIROC,MRI-CGCM3,and CCSM4,to simulate daily discharge for the upper reach of the Yangtze River during the period of the last millennium(850–1849),historical period(1850–2005),and a future period(2006–2099).Then,we evaluated whether the modeled precipitation,temperature,and extreme discharge had statistical properties similar to those shown in the documented dry-wet periods,temperature anomalies,and paleoflood ***,we explored the extreme discharge variability using model *** results indicate that:(1)The MIROC-ESM model,differing from the other three GCM models,revealed positive temperature changes from the warm period(Medieval Climate Anomaly;MCA)to the cold period(Little Ice Age;LIA),while the temperature variability of the other models was similar to the records.(2)The BCC-CSM1.1 model performed better than the others regarding correlations between modeled precipitation and documented dry-wet periods.(3)Over most of the subbasins in the upper Yangtze River,the magnitude of extreme discharge in the BCC-CSM1.1 model results showed that there was a decrease from the MCA to the LIA period and an increase in the historical period relative to the cold period,whil

关键词： Climate change Flood variability paleoflood records Climate-hydrological model Upper Yangtze River

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