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The effect of optimism bias and governmental action on siltation management within Japanese reservoirs surveyed via artificial neural network

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Big Earth Data 2020年第1期4卷 68-89页

作者： Tobias Landwehr Sameh Ahmed Kantoush Claudia Pahl-Wostl Tetsuya Sumi Mitsuteru Irie Institute for Environmental Systems Research Osnabrück UniversityOsnabrückGermany Water Resources Research Center Disaster Prevention Research InstituteKyoto UniversityKyotoJapan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty of EngineeringMiyazaki UniversityMiyazakiJapan

Reservoirs are installed as long-term assets to guarantee water and energy security for decades,if not ***,the effect of siltation undermines reservoirs’sustainability because it significantly reduces the reservoirs’original *** present paper attempts to evaluate the global reservoir siltation problem with the optimism bias theorem introduced by Kahneman and Tversky and applied to infrastructural mega-projects by Flyvbjerg and Ansar using artificial neural networks(ANNs)algorithms for large Japanese *** possesses suitable long-term data and a legal directive concerning the sediment capacity siltation duration,which serves as a valid guide to check whether,over the past 100 years,engineers,planners and managers were capable of judging the sediment input *** ANN models were established to emulate Japanese reservoir siltation *** networks demonstrate that reservoirs in Japan suffer from optimism *** contrast to the law,the dead storage volume of an average dam is supposed to reach capacity after 52 *** finding joins the overall observation that mega-projects generally and globally suffer from optimism *** emulations were subsequently screened for a presumed influence of governance actions,namely,indicating plus monitoring and the change in the market competition *** reservoir siltation appears to continue regardless of the level of competition in public procurement,monitoring directives appear to have a considerable impact on improved siltation management,which demonstrates that dedicated governance action can significantly strengthen the sustainable behavior of key infrastructure elements such as reservoirs.

关键词： Neural networks optimism bias governance Japan sustainability reservoirs sedimentation infrastructure

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An Empirical Test of optimism bias in Capital Budgeting Decisions

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Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing 2013年第2期9卷 287-296页

作者： Jale Sozer Oran Seda Gurol Perek Marmara University Istanbul Turkey

Behavioral finance is a field that is scrutinizing the adequacy of traditional financial theories using insights from the disciplines of psychology and sociology. Many studies within its realm test the stock market behaviors, and behavioral phenomena are still to be tested in the area of corporate finance. This study aims to contribute to the behavioral corporate finance literature by a research in one of the psychological phenomena affecting the decision makers＇ abilities to reach conclusions rationally. In this study, it is aimed to investigate one of the biases, namely, the optimism bias in corporate capital budgeting decisions. optimism in decision making can be associated with estimating lower costs and higher revenues. Thus, by assessing the forecasts of decision makers, the existence of optimism in their decisions is tried to be seen. This study aims at contributing to the literature in that it is conducted in an emerging country like Turkey.

关键词： behavioral corporate finance optimism bias capital budgeting decisions Turkey

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Appraising the Manifestation of optimism bias and Its Impact on Human Perception of Cyber Security: A Meta Analysis

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Journal of Information Security 2023年第2期14卷 93-110页

作者： Khaled M. Alnifie Charles Kim Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Howard University Washington DC USA

Cyber threats and risks are increasing exponentially with time. For preventing and defense against these threats and risks, precise risk perception for effective mitigation is the first step. Risk perception is necessary requirement to mitigate risk as it drives the security strategy at the organizational level and human attitude at individual level. Sometime, individuals understand there is a risk that a negative event or incident can occur, but they do not believe there will be a personal impact if the risk comes to realization but instead, they believe that the negative event will impact others. This belief supports the common belief that individuals tend to think of themselves as invulnerable, i.e., optimistically bias about the situation, thus affecting their attitude for taking preventive measures due to inappropriate risk perception or overconfidence. The main motivation of this meta-analysis is to assess that how the cyber optimistic bias or cyber optimism bias affects individual’s cyber security risk perception and how it changes their decisions. Applying a meta-analysis, this study found that optimistic bias has an overall negative impact on the cyber security due to the inappropriate risk perception and considering themselves invulnerable by biasing that the threat will not occur to them. Due to the cyber optimism bias, the individual will sometimes share passwords by considering it will not be maliciously used, lack in adopting of preventive measures, ignore security incidents, wrong perception of cyber threats and overconfidence on themselves in the context of cyber security.

关键词： Cyber Security Meta-Analysis Optimistic bias optimism bias Risk Perception Cognitive bias

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Making Sense of Hospital Project MisPerformance: Over Budget, Late, Time and Time Again—Why? And What Can Be Done About It?

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Engineering 2022年第5期8卷 183-201页

作者： Peter E.D.Love Lavagnon A.Ika School of Civil and Mechanical Engineering Curtin UniversityPerthWA 6845Australia Telfer School of Management University of OttawaOttawaON KIN 6N5Canada

Hospital projects worldwide often experience misperformance,showing a tendency to exceed their estimated cost,miss their deadline,suffer quality problems,and yield benefit *** this ubiquitous problem,this paper aims to make sense of this phenomenon by addressing the following research question:How can we make sense of hospital project misperformance,and what can be done to mitigate its occurrence?We use an illustrative case study approach and the analytical lens of sense-making to examine the misperformance of three mega-hospital *** research reveals issues such as scope changes,an inability to adapt and respond to risk and uncertainty,ineffectual project management and governance,and optimism bias,which combine to impact project performance *** suggest that the two prominent theoretical perspectives dominating the literature in this field fall short of adequately explaining hospital project *** provide suggestions for improving the procurement process of hospitals and submit there is a need to develop a robust and balanced theory of project misperformance.

关键词： Cost Hospital optimism bias Procurement Project management Performance Sense-making

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Misperception and pro-environmental behaviors of the Chinese public toward air pollution

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Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment 2021年第2期19卷 171-181页

作者： Xiuqin Wu Ge Wu Jinxiu Ding Ding Li Chin-Hsien Yu Hongxia Xu School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu611130China Institute of Development Studies Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu611130China Department of Public Finance School of EconomicsXiamen UniversityXiamen361005China

This study analyzes the misperceptions of the Chinese public about air pollution levels and other potential predictors of participation in pro-environmental behaviors based on the 2013 Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS).In this paper,misperception is defined as the difference between subjective perceptions of air pollution and measurements through objective *** find that pessimistic respondents are more likely to participate in pro-environmental *** media use and evaluation of the environmental performance of the local government significantly stimulate pro-environmental *** results reveal that knowledge and concern about the environment can mitigate the negative effect of optimistic bias on pro-environmental *** regions where environmental information is widely available,environmental pessimists are especially more likely to participate in such *** finding suggests that the government should provide not only accurate information about environmental pollution but also relevant education to enhance the environmental awareness of the public and stimulate pro-environmental participation.

关键词： Misperception optimism bias Pessimism bias Pro-environmental behaviors Air pollution

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