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油价大概率呈“N”形走势

加油站服务指南 2024年第2期 30-30页

作者：丁少恒中国石油规划总院市场营销研究所

2024年1月,国际油价出现20天左右的箱体运动后向上突破,拉开了全年复杂走势序幕。梳理可能影响年内国际石油市场变化的多个维度来看,地缘政治、供需基本面、金融属性、宏观经济将先后成为主导力量。其中,重要因素或事件包括红海危机、... 详细信息

2024年1月,国际油价出现20天左右的箱体运动后向上突破,拉开了全年复杂走势序幕。梳理可能影响年内国际石油市场变化的多个维度来看,地缘政治、供需基本面、金融属性、宏观经济将先后成为主导力量。其中,重要因素或事件包括红海危机、俄乌战争、opec+产量政策、世界经济强弱、美联储降息、美国大选等。

关键词：金融属性国际石油市场供需基本面美国大选宏观经济国际油价 opec 地缘政治

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石油需求能涨多少?谁说了都不算

中国石油石化 2024年第12期 31-31页

作者：朱润民不详

5月14日,石油输出国组织欧佩克(opec)发布《月度石油石油报告》,维持2024年、2025年全球石油需求分别增长225万桶/天、185万桶/天的预测不变。5月15日,国际能源署(IEA)发布月度《石油市场报告》,下调2024年全球石油需求增长14万桶/天至... 详细信息

5月14日,石油输出国组织欧佩克(opec)发布《月度石油石油报告》,维持2024年、2025年全球石油需求分别增长225万桶/天、185万桶/天的预测不变。5月15日,国际能源署(IEA)发布月度《石油市场报告》,下调2024年全球石油需求增长14万桶/天至110万桶/天,上调2025年需求增长10万桶/天至120万桶/天。

关键词：石油需求国际能源署石油市场欧佩克 opec 石油输出国组织

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“欧佩克+” 再议原油减产

财新周刊 2024年第21期 9-9页

作者：罗子琳不详

6月1日,由沙特和俄罗斯主导、全球22个主要产油国组成的“欧佩克+”(opec+)将举行部长级会议。这个占据全球石油供应40%以上的石油垄断联盟,将决定是否延长2023年11月达成的自愿减产协议到2024年下半年。

关键词：石油供应欧佩克 opec 主要产油国俄罗斯减产协议石油垄断

GCC Countries’Future Relationship With the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation:Motivation and Prospect

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Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 2023年第1期17卷 1-14页

作者： Degang Sun Fanxi He Center for Middle Eastern Studies Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina School of International Relations&Public Affairs Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

The Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC)is the most important economic,energy and political coalition in the Middle East.The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO)is the most influential Eurasian political and economic bloc.In the vicissitude international situation,the SCO is expanding westward;Qatar and Saudi Arabia have become the partners of dialogue;Bahrain,Kuwait and the UAE have applied for being partners for dialogue.Likewise,the GCC is looking eastward,exploring cooperation with Russia within the framework of‘opec+’,with China in‘China-GCC Summit and China-GCC Strategic Dialogue’,and with India within the framework of I2U2(Israel,India,United States and the United Arab Emirates).The‘SCO+GCC+’cooperation mechanism is inclusive,compatible with the US,European and the NATO’s military engagement with the GCC,which will open a new ground for bilateral cooperation and multilateral interaction between East Asia,South Asia,Central Asia,North Asia and West Asia,conducive to building‘an Asian community of shared future’in the long run.

关键词： Gulf Cooperation Council comprehensive strategic partnership Shanghai Cooperation Organisation I2U2 opec

RESEARCH ARTICLE Sensitivity of Crude Oil Price Change to Major Global Factors and to Russian-Ukraine War Crisis

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Journal of Sustainable Business and Economics 2022年第2期5卷 69-75页

作者： Ibrahim A.Onour Mai M.Abdo Department of Business Administration School of Management StudiesUniversity of KhartoumSudan Department of Accounting&Finance School of Management StudiesUniversity of KhartoumSudan

To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode;using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents;and increase in opec production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents;a decrease in non-opec production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in opec production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if opec members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.

关键词： opec Crude oil price Russian and Ukraine crisis

Global Oil and Gas M&A in 2021 and Its Prospect

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China Oil & Gas 2022年第1期29卷 39-44页

作者： Hou Mingyang Sinopec Exploration&Production Research Institute

Overview of global oil and gas M&A in 2021.In 2021,under the combined influence of factors such as the resurgence of COVID-19 all over the world and the failure of opec+to reach a production agreement,WTI and Brent,two international benchmark oil prices,showed an overall volatile upward trend.They climbed from US$50/bbl at the beginning of the year to the peak of approximately US$90/bbl,an increase of more than 70%and recording a high level in the past seven years,and stayed at around US$75/bbl at the end of the year,driving a strong rebound in the global oil and gas M&A activity.

关键词： opec driving recording