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Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ons covid-19 infection survey

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 299-313页

作者： Ruth McCabe Gabriel Danelian Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths Christl A.Donnelly Department of Statistics University of OxfordUK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic infections UK United Kingdom Health Security Agency UK The Queen's College University of OxfordUK The Pandemic Sciences Institute University of OxfordUK MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Imperial College LondonUK

Key epidemiological parameters,including the effective reproduction number,,and the instantaneous growth rate,,generated from an ensemble of models,have been informing public health policy throughout the covid-19 pandemic in the four nations of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland(UK).However,estimation of these quantities became challenging with the scaling down of surveillance systems as part of the transition from the“emergency”to“endemic”phase of the *** Office for National Statistics(ons)covid-19 infection survey(CIS)provided an opportunity to continue estimating these parameters in the absence of other data *** used a penalised spline model fitted to the publicly-available ons CIS test positivity estimates to produce a smoothed estimate of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity over *** resulting fitted curve was used to estimate the“ons-based”and across the four nations of the *** produced under this model are compared to government-published estimates with particular consideration given to the contribution that this single data stream can offer in the estimation of these *** on the nation and parameter,we found that up to 77%of the variance in the government-published estimates can be explained by the ons-based estimates,demonstrating the value of this singular data stream to track the epidemic in each of the four *** additionally find that the ons-based estimates uncover epidemic trends earlier than the corresponding government-published *** work shows that the ons CIS can be used to generate key covid-19 epidemiological parameters across the four UK nations,further underlining the enormous value of such population-level studies of *** is not intended as an alternative to ensemble modelling,rather it is intended as a potential solution to the aforementioned challenge faced by public health officials in the UK in early 2022.

关键词： Effective reproduction number Instantaneous growth rate SARS-CoV-2 covid-19 ons covid-19 infection survey Surveillance

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