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Establishment of Statistical Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Flood Season in China

Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第3期2卷 1-3页

作者： CHENG Zhi1,2 1.College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China 2.Key Laboratory for Climate-Environment in East Asian Region,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

[Objective] The research aimed to establish the regression model which was used to predict the precipitation in the flood season in China.[Method] Based on statistical model,north atlantic oscillation index and the sea surface temperature index in development and declining stages of ENSO were used to predict East Asian summer monsoon *** the stations were divided into 16 zones,the same factors were used to establish the regression model predicting the station precipitation in the flood season in ***,it was compared with the model that predicted firstly the monsoon index and estimated the precipitation.[Result] The prediction results of summer precipitation during 2005-2009 by every model were *** was found that the model that the factor predicted indirectly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the station ***,the model that the factor predicted directly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the regional *** prediction score P of optimum model that three factors predicted directly the regional precipitation reached averagely 74.2,and the anomaly correlation coefficient ACC was averagely *** from the comparison situation of positive and negative zone distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage between the predicted and observed values in 5 years,the prediction effects in the south and east of northeast China,some areas in the south of Yangtze River,the coast of South China and most areas of Xinjiang were *** predicted positive/negative distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage tallied with that of observation.[Conclusion] The model could predict well summer precipitation in China.

关键词： East Asian monsoon index Linear regression Summer precipitation ENSO north atlantic oscillation index China

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