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Interdecadal change of the linkage between the north atlantic oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western north Pacific

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第5期57卷 2148-2155页

作者： ZHOU BoTao CUI Xuan National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The relationship between the north atlantic oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western north Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western north Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western north Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western north Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.

关键词： tropical cyclone frequency north atlantic oscillation interdecadal change wave activity flux atmospheric circulation

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Do European Blocking Events Precede north atlantic oscillation Events?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第8期32卷 1106-1118页

作者： YAO Yao LUO Dehai Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science

Using a two-dimensional blocking index, the cause and effect relationship between European blocking （EB） events and north atlantic oscillation （NAO） events is investigated. It is shown that the EB event frequency is enhanced over northern （Southern） Europe for negative （positive） phases of the NAO. Enhanced EB events over northern Europe precede the establishment of negative phase NAO （NAO-） events, while the enhanced frequency of EB events over Southern Europe lags positive phase NAO （NAO＋） events. The physical explanation for why enhanced EB events over northern （Southern） Europe lead （lag） NAO （NAO＋） events is also provided. It is found that the lead-lag relationship between EB events in different regions and the phase of NAO events can be explained in terms of the different latitudinal distribution of zonal wind associated with the different phases of NAO events. For NAO＋ events, the self-maintained eastward displacement of intensified midlatitude positive height anomalies owing to the intensified zonal wind can enhance the frequency of EB events over Southern Europe, thus supporting a standpoint that EB events over Southern Europe lag NAO＋ events. Over northern Europe, EB events lead NAO- events because NAO- events arise from the self-maintained westward migration of intensified blocking anticyclones due to the weakened zonal wind in higher latitudes.

关键词： European blocking north atlantic oscillation mutual relationship

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Teleconnections of Inter-Annual Streamflow Fluctuation in Slovakia with Arctic oscillation,north atlantic oscillation,Southern oscillation,and Quasi-Biennial oscillation Phenomena

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第4期24卷 655-663页

作者： Pavla PEKAROVA Jan PEKAR Institute of Hydrology Slovak Academy of SciencesRacianska 75831 02 Bratislava 3Slovak Republic Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty of MathematicsPhysics and InformaticsComenius University BratislavaMlynska dolina842 48 BratislavaSlovak Republic

The aim of the paper is to analyze a possible teleconnection of Quasi-Biennial oscillation （QBO）, Southern oscillation （SO）, north atlantic oscillation （NAO）, and Arctic oscillation （AO） phenomena with longterm streamflow fluctuation of the Bela River （1895-2004） and Cierny Hron River （1931-2004）（central Slovakia）. Homogeneity, long-term trends, as well as inter-annual dry and wet cycles were analyzed for the entire 1895-2004 time series of the Bela River and for the 1931-2004 time series of the Cierny Hron River. Inter-annual fluctuation of the wet and dry periods was identified using spectral analysis. The most significant period is that of 3.6 years. Other significant periods are those of 2.35 years, 13.5 years, and 21 years. Since these periods were found in other rivers of the world, as well as in SO, NAO, and AO phenomena, they can be considered as relating to the general regularity of the Earth.

关键词： inter-annual discharge fluctuation spectral analysis teleconnection Quasi-Biennial oscillation Southern oscillation north atlantic oscillation Arctic oscillation

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Exploring the Phase-Strength Asymmetry of the north atlantic oscillation Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第5期32卷 671-679页

作者： JIANG Zhina WANG Xin WANG Donghai State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences

Negative-phase north atlantic oscillation（NAO） events are generally stronger than positive-phase ones, i.e., there is a phase-strength asymmetry of the NAO. In this work, we explore this asymmetry of the NAO using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation（CNOP） method with a three-level global quasi-geostrophic spectral model. It is shown that, with winter climatological flow forcing, the CNOP method identifies the perturbations triggering the strongest NAO event under a given initial constraint. Meanwhile, the phase-strength asymmetry characteristics of the NAO can be revealed. By comparing with linear results, we find that the process of perturbation self-interaction promotes the onset of negative NAO events, which is much stronger than during positive NAO onset. Results are obtained separately using the climatological and zonal-mean flows in boreal winter（December–February） 1979–2006 as the initial basic state. We conclude, based on the fact that NAO onset is a nonlinear initial-value problem, that phase-strength asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of the NAO.

关键词： north atlantic oscillation asymmetry optimization problem

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Temporal Structures of the north atlantic oscillation and Its Impact on the Regional Climate Variability

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2006年第1期23卷 23-32页

作者：黄建平季明霞 Kaz HIGUCHI Amir SHABBAR College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 Meteorological Service of Canada 4905 Dufferin StreetDownsviewOntarioCanada M3H 5T4

In this study, the temporal structure of the variation of north atlantic oscillation （NAO） and its impact on regional climate variability are analyzed using various datasets. The results show that blocking formations in the atlantic region are sensitive to the phase of the NAO. Sixty-seven percent more winter blocking days are observed during the negative phase compared to the positive phase of the NAO. The average length of blocking during the negative phase is about 11 days, which is nearly twice as long as the 6-day length observed during the positive phase of the NAO. The NAO-related differences in blocking frequency and persistence are associated with changes in the distribution of the surface air temperature anomaly, which, to a large extent, is determined by the phase of the NAO. The distribution of regional cloud amount is also sensitive to the phase of the NAO. For the negative phase, the cloud amounts are significant, positive anomalies in the convective zone in the Tropics and much less cloudiness in the mid latitudes. But for the positive phase of the NAO, the cloud amount is much higher in the mid-latitude storm track region. In the whole atlantic region, the cloud amount shows a decrease with the increase of surface air temperature. These results suggest that there may be a negative feedback between the cloud amount and the surface air *** in the atlantic region.

关键词： north atlantic oscillation atmospheric blocking cloud negative feedback

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The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the north atlantic oscillation and northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第2期24卷 191-198页

作者： Laura DE LA TORRE Luis GIMENO Juan Antonio AEL Raquel NIETO Universidad de Vigo Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense 32004OurenseSpain

The north atlantic oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .

关键词： solar activity north atlantic oscillation Arctic oscillation northern Hemisphere surface temperature

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Observed Long-and Short-lived north atlantic oscillation Events:Role of the Stratosphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第12期37卷 1338-1358页

作者： Jie SONG Jingjing ZHAO State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Utilizing three different sets of reanalysis data,this study examines the long-and short-lived observed positive north atlantic oscillation(NAO)events(referred to as NAO+_LE and NAO+_SE)and long-and short-lived observed negative NAO events(referred to as NAO−_LE and NAO−_SE).Composite results indicate that the NAO-like circulation anomalies associated with the long-lived NAO events can reach the stratosphere,while they are primarily confined to the troposphere in the short-lived NAO ***,the coupling/connection of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies is much better(worse)in the long-lived(short-lived)NAO events.A series of modified stratospheric initial-value experiments conducted with a simplified model indicate that a better(worse)connection between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies in the initial-value fields tend to gradually induce the NAO-like tropospheric circulation anomalies in the troposphere on the subsequent days,and thus naturally elongate(reduce)the lifetimes of the original NAO events by altering the tropospheric synoptic eddy vorticity flux over the north atlantic region.

关键词： north atlantic oscillation lifetimes stratosphere eddy forcing

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Impact of Preceding Summer north atlantic oscillation on Early Autumn Precipitation over Central China

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第6期6卷 417-422页

作者： XU Han-Lie FENG Juan SUN Cheng State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study examined the impact of the preceding boreal summer(June–August) north atlantic oscillation(NAO) on early autumn(September) rainfall over Central China(RCC). The results show that a significant positive correlation exists between the preceding summer NAO and the early autumn RCC on the interannual timescale. In order to understand the physical mechanism between them, the role of ocean was investigated. It was found that the strong summer NAO can induce a tripole sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the north atlantic; this SSTA pattern can persist until early autumn. The diagnostic analysis showed that the tripole SSTA pattern excites a downstream atlantic-Eurasian(AEA) teleconnection, which contributes to an increase in RCC. The circulation anomalies related to SSTA caused by the weak NAO are opposite, so the RCC is less than normal. The results imply that the preceding summer NAO may be regarded as a forecast factor for the early autumn RCC.

关键词： north atlantic oscillation early autumn rainfall tripole sea surface temperature anomaly atlantic-Eurasian teleconnection atmospheric-oceanic coupled bridge

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Short－term　Climatic　Fluctuations　in　north　atlantic　oscillation　and　Frequency　of　Cyclonic　Disturbances　over　north　Indian　Ocean　and　northwest　Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 1995年第3期12卷 371-376页

作者： S. S. Dugam S. B. Kakade Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Pune

A relationship between mean sea level pressure gradient between Azores High (AH) and Icelandic Low (IL) hereafter called north atlantic oscillation Index (NAOI) and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over north indianOcean is investigated using 98 years of date (1891-1988). The analysis is carried out on monthly, seasonel, annual anddecadal scales. Similar studies are also done for north West Pacific ocean cyclonic disturbances. It is nohced that thenumber of cyclonic disturbances over north indian Ocean during monsoon season (June-September) as well as onannual scale is significantly correlated with NAOI. However for pre (April-May) and post (October-November-December) monsoon seasons frequency of cyclonic disturbances do not bear similar relationship with NAOI. Thestudy also shows that decadal scale variability of cyclonic disturbances during the summer monsoon over north Indian Ocean has a remarkable correspondence with the decadal variability of NAOI.

关键词： north atlantic oscillation Cyclonic disturbances

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Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the north atlantic oscillation

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2019年第5期12卷 329-336页

作者： PAN Xinnong WANG Geli YANG Peicai Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

The north atlantic oscillation(NAO)is the most prominent mode of atmospheric variability in the northern *** of the close relationship between the NAO and regional climate in Eurasia,north atlantic,and north America,improving the prediction skill for the NAO has attracted much *** studies that focused on the predictability of the NAO were often based upon simulations by climate *** this study,the authors took advantage of Slow Feature Analysis to extract information on the driving forces from daily NAO index and introduced it into phase-space *** computing the largest Lyapunov exponent,the authors found that the predictability of daily NAO index shows a significant increase when its driving force signal is ***,the authors conducted a short-term prediction for the NAO by using a global prediction model for chaotic time series that incorporated the driving-force *** showed that the prediction skill for the NAO can be largely *** addition,results from wavelet analysis suggested that the driving-force signal of the NAO is associated with three basic drivers:the annual cycle(1.02 yr),the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)(2.44 yr);and the solar cycle(11.6 yr),which indicates the critical roles of the QBO and solar activities in the predictability of the NAO.

关键词： north atlantic oscillation slow feature analysis driving force characteristics time series prediction

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