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Possibility of Predicting Category-5 north atlantic hurricanes

Journal of Earth Science and Engineering 2014年第9期4卷 572-579页

作者： Jorge Perez-Peraza Alan Juarez Zuniga Instituto de Geofisica Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Coyoacan 04510 Mexico

Category-5 hurricanes are the most devastating from the standpoint of human and economic losses. The occurrence of this kind of hurricane is believed to be of quasi-random nature, so it is very difficult to predict them well in advance. Warnings at this regard are generally given in the course of their development. We propose here, that there are some inherently periodicities of the phenomena that allow to predict category-5 hurricanes, even with some years of anticipation. For our study, we consider the north atlantic category-5 hurricanes since 1920. We consider in this study data of the SST （sea surface temperature） of the north atlantic Ocean as a representative parameter of hurricane activity. Then, by means of the wavelet analysis, we determine the dominant oscillation periods and establish correspondence rules using fuzzy logic. The wavelet power spectrum yields the following dominant periodicities： 0.5, 1, 3, 11, 22 and 32 years. The fuzzy logic searches for associations between the hurricanes occurrence and the behavior of the harmonics. Such correspondence rules lead us to restrict dates of possible hurricane occurrence. Interpolation of the periodic behavior allows for a good reconstruction of past hurricanes dates since 1920, as well as extrapolation to predict dates of occurrence in the future. We conclude that the conditions for the formation of the next category-5 hurricane in the north atlantic may occur during the seasons of 2015-2017 with the highest probability in 2017.

关键词： north atlantic hurricane Predictions.

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