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Restimate:Recovery Estimation Tool for Resilience Planning

Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2024年第1期5卷 47-63页

作者： Scott Miles Megan Ly Nick Terry Youngjun Choe Department of Human Centered Design&Engineering Campus Box 352315University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98195United States of America Department of Industrial&Systems Engineering Box 352650University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98195United States of America

The *** Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)published the Community Resilience Planning Guide in *** NIST Guide advocates for a participatory process for developing a performance measurement framework for the jurisdiction’s resilience against a scenario *** framework centers around tables of expected and desired recovery times for selected community assets,such as electricity,water,and natural gas *** NIST Guide does not provide a method for estimating the expected recovery ***,building high-fidelity computer models for such estimations requires substantial resources that even larger ju-risdictions cannot *** most promising approach to recovery time estimation is to systematically use data elicited from people to tap into the wisdom of the(knowledgeable)*** paper describes a novel research-through-design project to enable the computer-supported elicitation of recovery time series *** work is the first in the literature to examine people’s ability to estimate recovery curves and how design in-fluences such *** main contribution to resilience planning is three-fold:development of a new elicitation tool called Restimate,understanding its potential user base,and providing insights into how it can facilitate resilience *** is the first tool to enable evidence-based expert elicitation in any community with limited resources for resilience *** resilience planning,those who facilitate high-stakes planning activities under large uncertainties(e.g.,mission-critical system design and planning)will benefit from a similar research-through-design process.

关键词： expert elicitation disaster natural hazard infrastructure community resilience restoration user-centered design computer-supported cooperative work

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Application of BeiDou navigation satellite system in emergency rescue of natural hazards: a case study for field geological survey of Qinghai−Tibet plateau

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Geo-Spatial Information Science 2018年第4期21卷 294-301页

作者： Ming Hao Jianlong Zhang Ruiqing Niu Changrong Deng Hong Liang National Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information System WuhanChina Chengdu Center of China Geological Survey ChengduChina

In recent years,geological and mineral resources exploration in China has expanded to deep hinterland of the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and other regions with complex geological *** special natural conditions of Qinghai−Tibet Plateau determine the characteristics of“life-forbidden zone”that is characterized by alpine hypoxia,changeable weather,complex road conditions,and beast *** particular,the work in wild depopulated zones with severe environment and poor communications imposes serious threats to the life safety of geological ***,how to guarantee the safety of geological personnel working on the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and how to reduce or even avoid casualty of geological personnel have currently become the urgent *** this study,an emergency rescue information system for field geological survey is constructed based on BeiDou Navigation Satellite System.A case study of emergency rescue has been conducted in the depopulated zone of the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and good effects have been achieved,providing security assurance for personnel engaged in field geological survey on the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau and technical support for the emergency rescue in case of natural hazards on the Qinghai−Tibet *** BeiDou Navigation Satellite System(BDS)can be effectively used to locate and communicate in the emergency rescue for rigorous Geological survey task where there is no network signal for the mobile phone,and the emergency rescue guarantee system is independent,reliable,and relatively *** application value of BDS is demonstrated in the geological field.

关键词： BeiDou navigation satellite system(BDS) natural hazard emergency rescue Qinghai−Tibet plateau

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U.S. Resilience to large-scale power outages in 2002–2019

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2022年第2期3卷 128-135页

作者： Aman Ankit Zhanlin Liu Scott B.Miles Youngjun Choe Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98105USA Department of Human Centered Design&Engineering University of WashingtonSeattleWA 98105USA

Prolonged power outages debilitate the economy and threaten public health. Existing research is generally limitedin its scope to a single event, an outage cause, or a region. Here, we provide one of the most comprehensiveanalyses of large-scale power outages in the U.S. from 2002 to 2019. This analysis is based on the outage datacollected under U.S. federal mandates that concern large blackouts, typically of transmission systems and excludemuch more common but smaller blackouts, typically, of distribution systems. We categorized the data into fouroutage causes and computed reliability metrics, which are commonly used for distribution-level small outagesonly but useful for analyzing large blackouts. Our spatiotemporal analysis reveals six of the most resilient *** since 2010, improvement of power resilience against natural hazards in the south and northeast regions,and a disproportionately large number of human attacks for its population in the Western Electricity CoordinatingCouncil region. Our regression analysis identifies several statistically significant predictors and hypotheses forU.S. resilience to large blackouts. Furthermore, we propose a novel framework for analyzing outage data usingdifferential weighting and influential points to better understand power resilience. We share curated data andcode as Supplementary Materials.

关键词： Power outage Reliability natural hazard Cyber attack Sabotage Operational maintenance

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Tornado Impacts in the US from 1950-2015: A GIS-Based Analysis of Vulnerability and Evolving Risk Zones for Human Casualties

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Journal of Geographic Information System 2023年第5期15卷 563-579页

作者： Seong Nam Hwang Kayla Meier Environmental Science Program Department of Biology Southeast Missouri State University Cape Girardeau Missouri USA

The United States is one of the major countries in the world that faces a numerous number of tornadoes every year, directly and indirectly experiencing extensive property damage and human casualties as well as a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental impacts. This research provides a GIS-based examination of the ways past tornadoes that occurred in the US in the period 1950-2015 have played out in the context of bodily injuries and loss of human life. To this end, the research collected major secondary data (i.e., georeferenced tornado point data) from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado database and conducted raster-based spatial analysis, utilizing techniques like point density analysis and map algebra to locate areas that have a high risk of tornadoes and to create maps that show relationships between the past tornado events and human casualties. One of the major research findings shown by the spatial analysis was that the geographic areas or regions impacted by tornadoes varied over time. In addition, the statistical results showed a trend that the tornado-prone regions extend from “Tornado Alley” to the states of Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, indicating that the communities in those states that are newly considered to be vulnerable to tornadoes should step up to develop their own tornado mitigation plan to help protect the public and its property from tornadoes. Such plans can play a crucial role in safeguarding the public and protecting property from tornadoes’ potential impact. Additionally, urban planners and policymakers can use this information to make informed decisions about building codes and infrastructure development in tornado-prone areas, potentially reducing the impact of future tornado events on human lives and property.

关键词： Tornadoes Emergency Management Spatial Analysis Environmental hazard natural hazard

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APPLICATION OF THE IMAGE INTERPRETATION FROM AIRPHOTOS IN DEBRIS FLOW RESEARCH

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 1993年第3期 72-78页

作者： Zhang Renlin Department of Geography Northwest University

The natural hazard in mountainous regions where debris flow is the most active phenomenon has been put under a focal task of research and control in the Jiangjia *** previous efforts are mainly devoted to analysis of both findings in the field investigation and data from monitoring stations following the traditional way,*** spread the analysis over a whole area from one *** order to inquire further into the causes and the consequences of debris flow,it is necessary to provide a much more comprehensive information of disastrous activity to combine correctly the image interpretation of airphotos taken in different periods with the on-the-spot investigation on the major districts of the study *** information contented,which can be extracted from airphoto analysis to a great extent,depends upon the interpreters’professional knowledge and the technical instruments used by *** is a presentation of some preliminary results and suggestions for improvement in the article.

关键词： image interpretation debris flow natural hazard

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Assessing the Influence of Climate Extremes on Ecosystems and Human Health in Southwestern Amazon Supported by the PULSE-Brazil Platform

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American Journal of Climate Change 2016年第3期5卷 399-416页

作者： L. E. O. C. Aragão J. A. Marengo P. M. Cox R. A. Betts D. Costa N. Kaye L. Alves L. T. Smith I. F. A. Cavalcanti G. Sampaio L. O. Anderson M. Horta S. Hacon V. L. Reis P. A. M. Fonseca I. F. Brown Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (DSR/INPE) Sao Jose dos Campos Sao Paulo Brazil College of Life and Environment Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas aos Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN) Sao Jose dos Campos Sao Paulo Brazil College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK Centro de Ciências do Sistema Terrestre/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CCST/INPE) Sao Jose dos Campos Sao Paulo Brazil School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE) Sao José dos Campos Sao Paulo Brazil National Institute of Public Health/Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ)/ENSP Rio de Janeiro Brazil Secretaria de Estado de Meio Ambiente-Sema Prefeitura do Acre Rio Branco Brazil Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA) Manaus Brazil Universidade Federal do Acre Rio Branco Brazil

The complexity of multi-dimensional climate, environmental and human health information complicates bringing together scientists, civil society, and decision makers to provide adequate mitigation and adaptation options for the consequences of global environmental change. To provide an effective pathway to conciliate (integrate) these datasets, we present PULSE-Brazil as the Platform for Understanding Long-term Sustainability of Ecosystems and human health. The overarching aim of this paper is to focus on two study cases in the Brazilian state of Acre, 1) analyzing recent socio-environmental disasters such as the impacts of droughts and consequent increases in fire detections on the incidence of respiratory diseases, and 2) evaluating the impacts of temperature increases in combination with rainfall seasonality upon the incidence of Dengue fever. Based on data available in PULSE-Brazil platform, we also aim to provide insights on the consequences of future climate variability on ecosystems and human health. Finally, we provide a discussion on the collaborative process between scientists and policymakers that defined the PULSE-Brazil platform specifications and datasets and propose a conceptual pathway for promoting the interaction between science and policy during the process of producing a tool that allows the understating of climate-relate processes. Our results clearly demonstrated that ecosystems are under increased fire risk in the future that will, in turn, affect the health of human populations. Moreover, humans are also exposed to critical Dengue fever outbreaks with the projected increase in minimum temperatures. Therefore, minimizing the impacts of these potentially ascending socio-environmental problems is the first step for adapting to a changing climate in the Amazon region. We expect that PULSE-Brazil will serve not only as a technical tool for supporting governance, management, mitigation and long-term adaptation plans for climate impacts and natural d

关键词： Amazon Droughts Human Health Fire Climate Change Vulnerability Adaptation natural hazard

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Cartographic-Environmental Analysis of the Landscape in natural Protected Parks for His Management Using *** to the natural Parks of the“Las Batuecas-Sierra de Francia”and“Quilamas”(Central System,Spain)

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Journal of Geographic Information System 2013年第1期5卷 54-68页

作者： Antonio Miguel Martinez-Grana Jose Luis Goy Caridad Zazo Geology Department External Geodynamics AreaSciences FacultyUniversity of SalamancaSalamancaSpain Section Geology National Museum of Natural SciencesMadridSpain

In this work we report a methodological procedure with an integrated physical-perceptual approach that allows units of landscape in protected natural areas to be differentiated. First, indirect methods were applied by means of a mapping procedure, which identified the physical components of major relevance. We then generated maps of natural units, anlyzing the “printed” landscape of a territory. Secondly, we developed direct methods to identify and describe the reresentative elements of the landscape, analyzing the “perceived” landscape. The identification and delimitation of these landscape units with geographical information systems provide detailed maps facilitate the tasks of planning and management. The procedure was validated by means of its application in two protected natural spaces. The treatment used here considers landscape not only as an aesthetic element but also as something “live” elaborating maps that should be of use in land planning and management of natural areas.

关键词： Landscape Cartography natural hazard Territorial Planning GIS Techniques Management Protected Parks

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自然灾害应急救助的公众参与方式

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管理科学 2020年第9期

作者：陈迎欣郜旭彤李烨

公众具有灵活性、覆盖面广、多元化救助的优势，在自然灾害应急救助中发挥着日益显著的作用。然而，我国自然灾害种类繁多，公众类型也较多，目前不同公众类型在不同自然灾害应急救助中采取的救助方式还不明晰。因此，本文通过选取2008... 详细信息

公众具有灵活性、覆盖面广、多元化救助的优势，在自然灾害应急救助中发挥着日益显著的作用。然而，我国自然灾害种类繁多，公众类型也较多，目前不同公众类型在不同自然灾害应急救助中采取的救助方式还不明晰。因此，本文通过选取2008～2017年具有代表性的公众参与自然灾害应急救助案例为研究对象，采用社会网络分析法构建公众类型与救助方式、自然灾害种类与救助方式两种关系网络，并从网络密度、中心性以及核心-边缘三个维度对两种关系网络进行测度。研究发现，公众在自然灾害应急救助中主要采取生命救助、捐助物资与资金的救助方式，而对心理救助、灾情发布与宣传的重视程度不足，同时对于森林火灾，公众采取的救助手段比较单一。研究成果有助于丰富应急管理研究视角，提高公众参与自然灾害应急救助效率。

关键词：公众参与自然灾害应急救助社会网络分析参与方式 Public Participation natural hazard Emergency Relief Social Network Analysis Participation Mode

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