检索结果-南通市图书馆

Analysis of Driving Factors of natural gas consumption in China: Based on Regional Integration and LMDI Method

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Energy Engineering 2021年第4期118卷 1027-1043页

作者： Huiwen Xu Zhen Wang School of Economic and Management China University of Petroleum(Beijing)BeijingChina

In recent years,China has developed rapidly in terms of natural *** by regional economic integration,a regional natural gas market composed of neighboring provinces and cities has taken shape gradually,and it tends to grow toward the same direction in policy formulation,resource coordination,facility construction and market *** on the factors such as geographical location,economic conditions and natural gas consumption,this thesis tends to conduct a horizontal comparative analysis on the economic development conditions,natural gas consumption characteristics and natural gas pipeline network density of the three regions with obvious regional integration feature in *** according to LMDI,four core indicators,namely economic growth effect,energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,and substitution effect are *** thesis is expected to explore the contribution of different indicators to the growth of natural gas consumption in these three different *** to the results,it can be concluded that the driving factors of natural gas consumption differ greatly among *** speaking,the more developed the economy is,the greater the contribution of the energy substitution effect to natural gas consumption will be,and the contribution of the economic growth effect to natural gas consumption will be *** that the contribution of energy intensity in different regions shows slight difference,the energy structure contributes the least effect,which further explains the current differences in China’s natural gas consumption characteristics and the reasons behind.

关键词： Regional integration natural gas consumption influencing factor LMDI

Refined analysis and prediction of natural gas consumption in China

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Management Science and Engineering 2019年第2期4卷 91-104页

作者： Ting Liang Jian Chai Yue-Jun Zhang Zhe George Zhang Business School Hunan UniversityChangsha410082China School of Economics&Management Xidian UniversityXi'an710126China College of Business&Economics Western Washington UniversityBellingham98225USA

In view of the abrupt and phased features of natural gas consumption,this paper attempts to predict natural gas consumption in China with a refined forecasting ***,we establish a Markov switching(MS)model to identify the phase characteristics after eliminating change points in the natural gas consumption sequence,using the product partition model(PPM).The results show that there are"rapid growth"and"slow growth"regimes in the development process of natural gas consumption in ***,the Bayesian model average(BMA)method is employed to determine the core determinants of natural gas consumption under sub-regimes,and it is determined that there are significant differences in the influencing factors under different regimes and ***,this paper establishes the BMA model of the"rapid growth"regime after predicting the state of future natural gas consumption in *** find that,compared to some other models,the BMA model that fully recognizes the regime without considering change points has the best predictive ***,the results of static and dynamic scenario analyses show that natural gas consumption continues to rise in 2019 and has obvious seasonal charac-teristics,while possible ultra-rapid growth of consumption in the future provides a new requirement for the supply of natural gas.

关键词： natural gas consumption PPM model Markov switching model BMA model Scenario analysis

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Petroleum Exploration and Development 2023年第2期50卷 492-504页

作者： JIA Ailin CHENG Gang CHEN Weiyan LI Yilong PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development Beijing 100083China

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

关键词： carbon peak and carbon neutrality energy mix carbon emissions natural gas consumption natural gas produc-tion new energy system terminal consumption scale production,supply,storage and marketing

Analysis of the supply-demand status of China's natural gas to 2020

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Petroleum Science 2010年第1期7卷 132-135页

作者： MA Yifei LI Yanli School of Business Administration China University of Petroleum Beijing 102249 China

The reserves, distribution, production and utilization of natural gas resources in China are introduced in this paper which leads a point of view that China＇s natural gas resources are relatively rich while distributed unevenly. The future production and consumption of China＇s natural gas are predicted using the Generalized Weng model and the Gray prediction model. The prediction suggests that with the increasing gas consumption China＇s natural gas production will not meet demand after 2010. In order to ease the supply-demand gap and realize rational development and utilization of China＇s natural gas resources, this paper puts forward some measures, such as using advanced technologies for natural gas development, establishing a long-distance pipeline network to rationalize the availability of natural gas across China and importing foreign natural gas and liquid natural gas （LNG）.

关键词： natural gas resources natural gas production natural gas consumption generalized Weng's Model

The Extended Grey GM(2,1,Σexp(ct))Model and Its Application in the Predictions

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Systems Science and Information 2023年第2期11卷 245-263页

作者： Maolin CHENG Bin LIU School of Mathematical Sciences Suzhou University of Science and TechnologySuzhou 215009China School of Business Suzhou University of Science and TechnologySuzhou 215009China

The conventional grey GM(2,1)model built for the fast growing time sequence generally has big *** improve the modeling precision,the paper improves from the following two aspects:First,the paper transforms the accumulated generating sequence of original time sequence quantitatively to make the transformed time sequence have the better adaptability to the model;second,the paper extends the conventional grey GM(2,1)model’s structure to make the extended model meet the variation law of fast growing sequence *** extended grey model is called the GM(2,1,Σexp(ct))*** paper offers the parameter optimization method and the solving method of time response sequence of GM(2,1,Σexp(ct))*** the model and methods proposed,the paper builds the GM(2,1,Σexp(ct))models for the natural gas consumption of China and Chongqing City,China,*** show that the models built have high simulation precision and prediction precision.

关键词： GM(2,1,Σexp(ct))model parameter optimization method time response equation natural gas consumption prediction