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Comparing trends of crop and pasture in future land-use scenarios for climate change mitigation

Geography and Sustainability 2024年第3期5卷 470-481页

作者： Maxime Malbranque Xiangping Hu Francesco Cherubini Industrial Ecology Program Department of Energy and Process EngineeringNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyN-7491TrondheimNorway

Revegetation of former agricultural land is a key option for climate change mitigation and nature *** and abandonment of agricultural land is typically influenced by trends in diets and agricultural inten-sification,which are two key parameters in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs).Datasets mapping future land dynamics under different SSPs and climate change mitigation targets stem from different scenario assump-tions,land data and modelling *** study aims to determine the role that these three factors play in the estimates of the evolution of cropland and pastureland in future SSPs under different climate scenarios from four main datasets largely used in the climate and land surface *** datasets largely agree with the rep-resentation of cropland at present-day conditions,but the identification of pastureland is ambiguous and shows large discrepancies due to the lack of a unique land-use *** occur with future projections,even for the same SSP and climate *** for CO_(2)sequestration from revegetation of abandoned agri-cultural land and CO_(2)emissions from forest clearance due to agricultural expansion shows a net reduction in vegetation carbon stock for most SSPs considered,except ***,different datasets give differences in estimates,even when representative of the same *** SSP1,the cumulative increase in carbon stock until 2050 is 3.3 GtC for one dataset,and more than double for *** study calls for a common classifica-tion system with improved detection of pastureland to harmonize projections and reduce variability of outcomes in environmental studies.

关键词： natural forest regrowth Scenarios Agriculture Climate change mitigation

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