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Half-a-century(1971–2020)of glacier shrinkage and climatic variability in the Bhaga basin,western Himalaya

Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第3期20卷 299-324页

作者： DAS Suresh SHARMA Milap Chand MURARI Madhav Krishna NÜSSER Marcus SCHMIDT Susanne Centre for the Study of Regional Development Jawaharlal Nehru UniversityNew Delhi 110067India National Geochronology Facility Inter-University Accelerator CentreNew Delhi 110067India Department of Geography South Asia Institute(SAI)Heidelberg UniversityHeidelberg 69115Germany Heidelberg Centre for the Environment(HCE) Heidelberg UniversityHeidelberg 69120Germany

Glacier shrinkage is a globally occurring ***-resolution change detection based on frequent mapping and monitoring of high-altitude glaciers is necessary to precisely evaluate future water availability and to understand glacier evolution under different climatic scenarios in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan(HKH)*** also holds true for the Bhaga basin of the western *** study investigates glacier and glacier lake changes in the Bhaga basin,over the last five decades based on satellite imagery including Corona KH4(1971),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus(ETM+;2000),Linear Imaging Self-Scanning Sensor(LISS Ⅳ;2013),and Sentinel 2(2020).Regional temperature and precipitation trends were evaluated from gridded climatic datasets(1900–2020).In the Bhaga basin 306 glaciers(>0.2 km^(2))were mapped with a total area of 360.3±4.0 km^(2),of which 55.7±0.6 km^(2)was covered with debris in *** total glacier covered area decreased by∼8.2±1.5%(0.16±0.03%yr-1)during the entire observation period 1971–2020,with noticeable heterogeneity between tributary *** the past two decades(2000–2020),the deglaciation rate has increased significantly(0.25%yr-1)compared to the previous decades(1971–2000;0.12%yr-1).Glacier lake area increased by 0.6±0.1 km^(2)(0.012 km^(2)yr-1)between 1971 and *** ncep/ncar climatic data reveals an increase of 0.63℃in temperature and a decrease of 6.39 mm in precipitation for the period 1948–*** comparison,APHRODITE data shows an increasing trend in temperature of 1.14℃between 1961 and 2015 and decreasing trend in precipitation of 31 mm between 1951 and *** ncep/ncar and APHRODITE data reveal significant temperature increase and precipitation decrease since the 1990s,which have probably augmented ice loss in the Bhaga basin during the early 21st century.

关键词： Glacier change Remote sensing APHRODITE ncep/ncar reanalysis Climate change Western Himalaya

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Reliability Analyses of Anomalies of ncep/ncar Reanalyzed Wind Speed and Surface Air Temperature in Climate Change Research in China

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2007年第3期21卷 320-333页

作者：施晓晖徐祥德谢立安 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Marine Earth and Atmospheric SciencesNorth Carolina State UniversityRaleigh NC 27695-8208USA

By means of varied statistical methods, such as normalized root mean square error （RMSE）, correlation analysis, empirical orthogonal function （EOF） decomposition, etc., the reliability of the varied seasonal anomalies of ncep/ncar reanalyzed wind speed and surface air temperature （SAT） data frequently used in the climate change research in China is studied. Results show that RMSEs of meteorological variables are smaller in eastern China than in western China, i.e., the reliability of ncep/ncar reanalysis in eastern China is better than that in western China. This could be due to effects of the topography in the reanalysis model and the disposition of ＂dense-in-eastern-and-sparse-in-western＂ of meteorological stations in China. The RMSE of anomalies of reanalyzed wind speeds decreases with increasing height, further confirming the possible impact of topography on reliability of reanalysis. Results of correlation analysis inversely correspond to those of RMSE analysis, i.e., if the RMSE is larger, the correlation between reanalyzed and observed data is worse, and vice versa. It is found from comparing the EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data that if a meteorological variable has smaller RMSE, the spatial patterns of corresponding EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data are similar and their time coefficients are significantly correlated, and vice versa. Therefore, the similarity of EOF modes and＂ the consistency of their time coefficients can be used to objectively assess the reliability of the reanalysis. On the whole, the reliability of the reanalyzed wind speed is better in spring, summer, and autumn, but worse in winter; and for the reanalyzed SAT, it is the best in winter and the worst in summer.

关键词： ncep/ncar reanalysis RMSE correlation analysis EOF decomposition data reliability

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