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Recognition Method for Change Point of Traffic Flow linear regressions

Journal of Donghua University(English Edition) 2012年第1期29卷 59-61页

作者：张敬磊王晓原马立云 School of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering Shandong University of Technology

Recognition method of traffic flow change point was put forward based on traffic flow theory and the statistical change point analysis of multiple linear regressions. The method was calibrated and tested with the field data of Liantong Road of Zibo city to verify the validity and the feasibility of the theory. The results show that change point method of multiple linear regression can make out the rule of quantitative changes in traffic flow more accurately than ordinary methods. So, the change point method can be applied to traffic information management system more effectively.

关键词： traffic flow quantitative changes multiple linear regressions change point recognition

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A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS OF SOCIETAL RISK PERCEPTION AND STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY IN CHINA

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2018年第5期27卷 613-631页

作者： Nuo Xu Xijin Tang Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100190 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Modem China is undergoing a variety of social conflicts as the arrival of new era with thetransformation of the principal contradiction. Then monitoring the society stable is a huge *** societal risk perception is acquired by mapping on-line public concerns respectively intosocietal risk events including national security, economy ＆ finance, public morals, daily life, socialstability, government management, and resources ＆ environment, and then provides one kind ofmeasurement toward the society state. Obviously, stable and harmonious social situations are the basicguarantee for the healthy development of the stock market. Thus we concern whether the variations ofthe societal risk are related to stock market volatility. We study their relationships by two steps, firstthe relationships between search trends and societal risk perception; next the relationships betweensocietal risk perception and stock volatility. The weekend and holiday effects in China stock market aretaken into consideration. Three different econometric methods are explored to observe the impacts ofvariations of societal risk on Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. 3 majorfindings are addressed. Firstly, there exist causal relations between Baidu Index and societal riskperception. Secondly, the perception of finance ＆ economy, social stability, and governmentmanagement has distinguishing effects on the volatility of both Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index. Thirdly, the weekend and holiday effects of societal risk perception on the stock market are verified. The research demonstrates that capturing societal risk based on on-line public concerns is feasible and meaningful.

关键词： Societal risk perception stock market volatility Baidu Index Granger causality test multiple linear regressions

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Dominant climate factors influencing the Arctic runoff and association between the Arctic runoff and sea ice

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2010年第5期29卷 10-20页

作者： LI Pixue ZHANG Zhanhai LIU Jiping Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China Polar Research Institute of China Shanghai 200136 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Shanghai Marine Environmental Monitoring and Forecasting Center Shanghai 200232 China

By using the Arctic runoff data from R-ArcticNET V4.0 and ArcticRIMS,trends of four major rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean,whose climate factor plays an important role in determining the variability of the Arctic runoff,are *** results show that for the past 30 years,the trend of the Arctic runoff is seasonally *** is a significant trend in spring and winter and a significant decreasing trend in summer,leading to the reduced seasonal *** spring,surface air temperature is the dominant factor influencing the four *** summer,precipitation is the most important factor for Lena and Mackenzie,while snow cover is the most important factor for Yenisei and *** Mackenzie,atmospheric circulation does play an important role for all the seasons,which is not the case for the Eurasian *** authors further discuss the relationships between the Arctic runoff and sea *** negative correlation is found at the mouth of the rivers into the Arctic Ocean in spring,while significant positive correlation is observed just at the north of the mouths of the rivers into the Arctic in *** addition,each river has different relationship with sea ice in the eastern Greenland Sea.

关键词： Arctic runoff multiple linear regressions sea ice

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The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2008年第1期18卷 95-106页

作者： LIN Xuedong ZHANG Yili YAO Zhijun GONG Tongliang WANG Hong CHU Duo LIU Linshan ZHANG Fei Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS Beijing 100085 China Tibet Hydroelectric Investigation Designed Research Institute Lhasa 850000 China Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China Tibet Hydrographic and Water Resources Survey Bureau Lhasa 850000 China Institute of Xizang-Plateau Atmosphere Environment Sciences Lhasa 850000 China

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows：（1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.

关键词： Lhasa River Basin trend of runoff variation Pettitt change-point test Mann-Kendall trend analysis multiple linear regressions

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Impact of processing trade on Chinese technology advancement

Impact of processing trade on Chinese technology advancement

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2010 International Conference on Computer and Communication Technologies in Agriculture Engineering (CCTAE 2010)

作者： Zhiyi Yao School of Economy & Trade Hunan University Department of Industry and Business Administration Hunan College of Finance and Economics Changsha China

This paper estimates the impact of processing trade on Chinese technology *** model is estimated using the method of multiple linear *** results are when increase dollar of processing export with imported materials,the growth rate of Chinese technological progress can increase 109.5322%.When increase dollar of processing import with supplied materials;the growth rate of Chinese technological progress can increase 62.6031%.When it is processed and assembled that we only import the accessories,they have hindered the technological progress of ***,we draw the conclusion:China mainly depends on introducing technology to accelerate the national technological progress at present.

关键词： Processing Trade Industrial Structure Technology Advancement multiple linear regressions

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