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multi-hazard susceptibility mapping based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Geoscience Frontiers 2022年第5期13卷 59-74页

作者： Kashif Ullah Yi Wang Zhice Fang Lizhe Wang Mahfuzur Rahman Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China School of Computer Science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Geo-Information Processing China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Department of Civil Engineering International University of Business Agriculture and Technology(IUBAT)Dhaka 1230Bangladesh

multi-hazard susceptibility prediction is an important component of disasters risk management *** effective multi-hazard risk mitigation strategy includes assessing individual hazards as well as their ***,with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology,multi-hazard susceptibility prediction techniques based on machine learning has encountered a huge *** order to effectively solve this problem,this study proposes a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework using the classical deep learning algorithm of Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN).First,we use historical flash flood,debris flow and landslide locations based on Google Earth images,extensive field surveys,topography,hydrology,and environmental data sets to train and validate the proposed CNN ***,the proposed CNN method is assessed in comparison to conventional logistic regression and k-nearest neighbor methods using several objective criteria,i.e.,coefficient of determination,overall accuracy,mean absolute error and the root mean square *** results show that the CNN method outperforms the conventional machine learning algorithms in predicting probability of flash floods,debris flows and ***,the susceptibility maps of the three hazards based on CNN are combined to create a multi-hazard susceptibility *** can be observed from the map that 62.43%of the study area are prone to hazards,while 37.57%of the study area are *** hazard-prone areas,16.14%,4.94%and 30.66%of the study area are susceptible to flash floods,debris flows and landslides,*** terms of concurrent hazards,0.28%,7.11%and 3.13%of the study area are susceptible to the joint occurrence of flash floods and debris flow,debris flow and landslides,and flash floods and landslides,respectively,whereas,0.18%of the study area is subject to all the three *** results of this study can benefit engineers,disaster managers and local government offici

关键词： multi-hazard Convolutional Neural Network Machine learning Eastern Hindukush Pakistan

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multi-hazard performance assessment of a transfer-plate high-rise building

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2007年第4期6卷 371-382页

作者： Xiangming Zhou 徐幼麟 Department of Civil Engineering School of Engineering University of Greenwich at Medway United Kingdom Department of Civil and Structural Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong China

Many urban areas are located in regions of moderate seismicity and are subjected to strong wind. Buildings in these regions are often designed without seismic provisions. As a result, in the event of an earthquake, the potential for damage and loss of lives may not be known. In this paper, the performance of a typical high-rise building with a thick transfer plate （TP）, which is one type of building structure commonly found in Hong Kong, is assessed against both earthquake and wind hazards. Seismic- and wind-resistant performance objectives are first reviewed based on relevant codes and design guidelines for high-rise buildings. After a brief introduction of wind-resistant design of the building, various methodologies, including equivalent static load analysis （ESLA）, response spectrum analysis （RSA）, pushover analysis （POA）, linear and nonlinear time-history analysis （LTHA and NTHA）, are employed to assess the seismic performance of the building when subjected to frequent earthquakes, design based earthquakes and maximum credible earthquakes. The effects of design wind and seismic action with a common 50-year return period are also compared. The results indicate that most performance objectives can be satisfied by the building, but there are some objectives, such as inter-story drift ratio, that cannot be achieved when subjected to the frequent earthquakes. It is concluded that in addition to wind, seismic action may need to be explicitly considered in the design of buildings in regions of moderate seismicity.

关键词： multi-hazard performance-based design seismic moderate seismicity wind pushover analysis transferplate high-rise building

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multi-hazard disaster scenario method and emergency management for urban resilience by integrating experiment-simulation-field data

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2021年第2期2卷 77-89页

作者： Rui Ba Qing Deng Yi Liu Rui Yang Hui Zhang Institute of Public Safety Research Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Due to the frequent occurrence of multi-hazard disasters worldwide in recent years,effective multi-hazard sce-nario analysis is imperative for disaster rescue and emergency *** response procedure for different single hazards were investigated and formulated ***,the investigations of disaster scenario rarely systematically address the entire development and response process of multi-hazards,including the coupling mechanisms,evolution dynamics,scenario assessment and emergency *** this end,this paper presents our methodology of multi-hazard disaster scenario that integrates experiment-simulation-field data,focusing on three dimensions consisting of multi-hazard coupling,structures and systems,and emergency *** newly proposed scenario method mainly comprises three aspects:experiments and simulations,multi-hazard field investigation,scenario analysis and ***,in order to study the large-scale,high-intensity and multi-hazard coupling effects,we carried out reduced-scale experiments and field measurement experiments to develop experimental similarity theory and prototype simulations of *** addition,a variety of field rescue and survey equipment,such as robots,Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV),and Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality(VR/AR)technologies were utilized to acquire real-time data of multi-hazard ***,we also examine the mechanism and framework of multi-hazard scenarios to formulate the detailed procedures of man-agement and *** are incorporated with the experiments,simulations,field data and models to con-struct a new scenario *** proposed scenario method was applied in a case study of the coupled wind and snow multi-hazard to verify its *** new method contributes to the disaster relief,decision-making and emergency management for multi-hazard disaster to improve the urban resilience.

关键词： multi-hazard Disaster Scenario Resilience Emergency management

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A comprehensive multi‐hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2023年第1期4卷 43-51页

作者： Changkun Chen Dongyue Zhao Fan He Fenglin Sun Institute of Disaster Prevention Science and Safety Technology Central South UniversityChangsha 410075China Anhui University of Science and Technology Huainan 232001China

To assist the Department of Emergency Management in understanding the overall risk characteristics and situation of an urban agglomeration for a reasonable risk prevention and control strategy,this study developed a comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple *** proposed model includes disaster probability and disaster loss *** model evaluated four types of disaster risk in urban agglomerations:natural disasters,accidental disasters,public health incidents,and social security *** addition,a variety of factors were integrated into the model,including the socioeconomic foundation of urban agglomerations,the oligopoly effect of core cities,historical disaster losses,the effect of disaster chains,the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation,and intercity coordinated rescue ***,the risk assessment model was applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban *** assessment results were compared to the distribution of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the target urban *** results showed that after analyzing the risk characteristics and evaluating the risk levels,the model not only showed the comprehensive risk levels and distribution of urban agglomerations but also revealed the high-risk areas and the key points of risk prevention and *** importantly,the results obtained through the model can facilitate the strategic planning of disaster prevention and mitigation for urban agglomerations.

关键词： Urban agglomeration Risk assessment multi-hazard multifactor Risk prevention and control

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WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR WMO GLOBAL multi-hazard ALERT SYSTEM

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2018年第4期7卷 230-236页

作者： YU-FAI TONG YUEN-CHUNG ARMSTRONG CHENG Hong Kong Observatory

The World Meteorological Organization(WMO) is planning to implement a Global multi-hazard Alert System(GMAS) to aggregate official warning^1 information issued by authorities around the world and to serve as a one-stop shop to support the humanitarian organizations of the United Nations(UN), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs) and other global users including the media. It aims to enhance the authority and visibility of NMHSs and other alerting authorities. To aid effective dissemination of warnings to GMAS, the Common Alerting Protocol(CAP) was considered as a standard and robust format to use. In respect of GMAS infrastructure, the World Weather Information(WWIS) and the Severe Weather Information Centre(SWIC) of WMO as well as the WMO Alert Hub now being implemented are identified as core components, among others. The SWIC is being upgraded with GIS capability for displaying authoritative warnings and tropical cyclone(TC) information, and for use as a display platform of GMAS. Apart from warnings from NMHSs, authoritative TC warnings and advisories issued by Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres(RSMCs) and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres(TCWCs) are also indispensable information for GMAS. As the existing TC warnings and advisories, now more or less in free text format, are mainly targeted for human users and are not intended for automatic parsing by computer software, it is proposed to make available the TC advisories in a machine-readable format so that TC information can be effectively ingested into GMAS and made available to the UN humanitarian organizations, NMHSs and other global users. In this respect, some enhancement measures to TC advisories are proposed. This calls for active collaboration of Members of the Typhoon Committee in the GMAS project.

关键词： GMAS multi-hazard alerts authoritative warnings Common Alerting Protocol RSMC TCWC

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Key technologies of the emergency platform in China

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Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2022年第4期3卷 404-415页

作者： Hongyong Yuan Lida Huang Tao Chen Yang Chen Hui Zhang Xuerui Chen Qing Deng Zhichao He Jiajun Wang Yiting Wang Institute of Public Safety Research Department of Engineering PhysicsTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Tsinghua-Gsafety Joint Institute of Public Safety and Emergency Technology Research Gsafety CompanyBeijing 100094China Research Institute of Macro-Safety Science University of Science and Technology BeijingBeijing 100083China

An emergency platform is an informatization support platform for disaster information perception,disaster situa-tional awareness,and emergency decision *** is a key tool for ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of emergency *** large countries have conducted in-depth research on the key technologies of emergency *** the past 20 years,with the reform of emergency management mechanisms,China has developed two generations of emergency platform *** paper reviews the two generations of emergency platforms and summarizes their key technologies including multi-source-based monitoring and early warning,multi-hazard risk assessment,“scenario-response”-based decision support,synthetical forecasting based on in-cident chain,and emergency common operational picture(COP)for command and *** research directions for the next generation emergency platforms are also proposed.

关键词： Emergency platform of China Technology development direction multi-hazard Incident chain Scenario-response Emergency COP

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Towards an integrated framework for the risk assessment of coastal structures exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazards

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Resilient Cities and Structures 2022年第2期1卷 57-75页

作者： Cláudia Reis Mário Lopes Maria Ana Baptista Stéphane Clain Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability CERISInstituto Superior TécnicoUniversidade de LisboaAvenida Rovisco Pais1Lisboa 1049-001Portugal Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa Instituto Politécnico de LisboaR.Conselheiro Navarro 1Lisboa 1959-007Portugal Departamento de Matemática Centro de FísicaUniversidade do MinhoCampus de GualtarBraga 4710-057Portugal

The spatial distribution of the world population is uneven,with a density of about 40%living in coastal *** trend is expected to continue in both demographic indicators and urban development rate,being many coastal cities in seismic-and tsunami-prone regions and built through informal and unplanned settlements,exposing their population and assets to such *** tectonic-triggered events raised awareness of the cascading earthquake and tsunami threat and highlighted the paucity of structural design criteria considering the cumulative effects of *** being exposed to the ground-motion,the structures’resistance may decrease and become residual/non-existent to support the incoming tsunami,implying an underestimation of the *** management can benefit from reinforcing the ties between natural hazards and engineering practitioners,linking science and industry,and promoting dialogue between risk analysts and *** by the expansion plans of an internationally-sized deep-water port located in a tsunami-prone region,a reflection on the work needed to perform a multi-risk assessment and the challenges yet to overcome is introduced to emphasize the challenge of combining safety requirements with financial and ecologic concerns.A conceptual interdisciplinarybased methodology is proposed to support uncertainty-aware,systematic and informed decisions.

关键词： Cascading earthquake and tsunami multi-hazard Structural vulnerability to earthquake and derivative tsunami Performance-based engineering to cascading ground motion and tsunami

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多灾种综合风险评估理论与方法

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生态环境与保护 2024年第2期

作者：王军李梦雅吴绍洪

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化等多重背景下，多灾种综合风险已成为人类社会必须面对的挑战。多灾种综合风险评估是实施风险防范的基础。以成熟的单灾种风险研究为切入点，探讨多灾种综合风险评估的理论基础和方法类型。其理论基... 详细信息

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化等多重背景下，多灾种综合风险已成为人类社会必须面对的挑战。多灾种综合风险评估是实施风险防范的基础。以成熟的单灾种风险研究为切入点，探讨多灾种综合风险评估的理论基础和方法类型。其理论基础之一是多灾种的概念模型，用于刻画多灾种的组合方式；理论基础之二是风险系统框架，用于描述风险系统的组成要素及其关系。多灾种风险评估的关键是实现对单灾种风险的综合，这种综合方法可分为累加式综合和过程式综合。未来既要密切关注灾害风险多要素的相互关系，更要高度重视环境变化对灾害过程和风险结果的影响。在深刻理解现有风险系统框架的基础上，以单灾种风险剖析为基础，以灾种间的关联性和组合特征为牵引，以情景分析思想为助力，有助于实现多灾种综合风险评估。

关键词：多灾种风险综合风险评估风险系统框架情景分析 multi-hazard comprehensive risk assessment risk framework scenario analysis

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