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Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply

Petroleum Science 2017年第3期14卷 616-621页

作者： Yi Jin Xu Tang Cui-Yang Feng Jian-Liang Wang Bao-Sheng Zhang School of Business Administration China University of Petroleum Beijing 102249 China

Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China＇s own development.

关键词： Oil production multi-cycle Generalized Weng model Energy strategy

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