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Evaluating the Spatial Uncertainty of Future Land Abandonment in a Mountain Valley(Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France): Insights from Model Parameterization and Experiments

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Journal of Mountain Science 2015年第5期12卷 1095-1112页

作者： Thomas Houet Laure Vacquié David Sheeren GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS –UT2J Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès Maison de la recherche 5 allées Antonio Machado31058 Toulouse Cedex Dynafor UMR 1201 INRA/INPT-ENSAT Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse Avenue del’Agrobiopole B.P. 32607 - Auzeville-Tolosane 31326 - Castanet-Tolosan Cédex

European mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use *** latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services,LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their *** the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the definition of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains(France) and two scenarios illustrating two land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The definition of ‘static vs. dynamic' and ‘quantitative ***(discretized)' driving factors, and their combination resulted in four parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves adapting the definition of spatial uncertainty in the literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the uncertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers.

关键词： Land use Land cover Scenario Model mountainous reforestation Land abandonment Landmanagement

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